Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Ft. Lauderdale Stakes (G2)

Winter Break in South Beach

By: Alex Sausville, Off the Turf Podcast

 

The Michael Maker barn is back in action this week at Gulfstream Park where he will try to take back to back renditions of the Grade 2 Fort Lauderdale. With a trio of contenders this upcoming Saturday, Maker will have a solid chance to repeat his success following Shining Cooper’s 2018 performance. 

One major challenger that will be standing in his way will be Channel Cat, who is shortening up in distance and dropping out of 3 consecutive attempts at grade 1 level. 

And what about Instilled Regard? A Grade 1 placed horse on the turf and a 4th place finisher in the run for the roses, will he be able to find the winners circle for the first time since the Lecomte at Fair Grounds? Lots of questions to be asked, one race for them to be answered.

My Analysis

It will be no secret that Channel Cat will want to push up and be near the front of the pack. After several races not being able to get into a favorable position, Johnny V gets the call and looks to get that same trip that led to triumph in the Grade 2 Bowling Green at Saratoga. It was his last attempt against Grade 2 company that he was able to get an uncontested lead and it led to his first and only win in 2019.

With Johnny Velazquez taking over on Channel Cat, Luis Saez shifts to Cross Border, a Maker trainee who has performed well in allowance and optional claiming company on the New York circuit. Cross Border is one that I found extremely interesting when looking back at his first graded stakes attempt, a 5th place finish in the Turf Classic at Belmont. This looks like a horse who took a big jump up to face a top caliber field and ran very respectably. By dropping from that race level and getting a win last time out at Aqueduct, I feel that this move up to grade 2 is the right spot. This is a field of established older horses, but it is definitely a much easier jump up for Cross Border than facing the likes of Arklow, Channel Maker, and Sadler’s Joy.

One of the major wild cards in this scenario will be Instilled Regard. A horse that has had his dirt form fall off the map since racing on the Kentucky Derby trail has shown some brief flashes of life on the turf. A solid 3rd in the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby going this distance, he comes off of a good late closing effort at Aqueduct. This is a spot that I can see him being there late closing in on the pace, especially if Channel Cat has some company on the front end.

One other horse that should be expected to be flying late will be Admission Office. The Brian Lynch runner has shown a tendency to start out slow and make that big run late. One of the only reasons I consider this horse to have a chance to be there in this spot will be the fact that with horses like Channel Cat, Up the Ante, and possibly even Cross Border could be pushing the pace and see a bit of a pace clash.

Lastly, Flavius, the Juddmonte Farm colt for Chad Brown, will be running his 2nd start in the US and for this year. The 2018 winner of Leopardstown’s Trigo Stakes suffered a tough start last time start and ended up closing late for 4th. I am not personally sold on this horse 2nd time out off of such a major layoff, however, based on the past performance in Ireland and showing a decent turn of foot he will be bet down and could be a legitimate contender.

My Plays

$10 Exacta Box - 7 With 4,8,9 - $60

$30 Win - 7 Cross Border - $30

Total = $90

Final Thoughts:

The more I looked at this race, the more I saw the benefit for Cross Border with having Luis Saez aboard. A horse that won 3 races at Saratoga with Saez and now gets him back for this Grade 2 event, this will be something that makes a big difference in this start. As well with this being a class jump it seems to be just the right caliber field that a horse like Cross Border will be a top contender.

Channel Cat will be tough to beat with a perfect trip on the front end, however despite his drop in class he has 1 win this year and came with an uncontested pace so I am willing to take a play against. 

Lastly, this is a race where a wild card horse could find themselves closing late and making a big move so I went to Instilled Regard, Admission Office and the outside horse Marzo with my underneath plays to finish with Cross Border. A stakes proven horse in Shining Copper gave Maker this triumph last year during winter break in South Florida, now it's time to do it again.

Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Carter Handicap (G1)

Upset Potential in Carter Handicap

By: Michael Mills, ThoroFan Member

121^st Running of the Carter Handicap, Grade 1, Saturday, April 06, 2019, Aqueduct Race Track, 7 Furlongs on the Dirt.

The Carter Handicap was named for Brooklyn contractor and tugboat captain, William Carter, as he put up most of the purse money for the first running in 1895.  The Carter made history in 1944, becoming the first three-way dead heat for a stakes win in the United States when Bossuet, Brownie, and Wait A Bit hit the wire in unison.

Selections based on anticipated moisture in the track.

1)  Sir Ballantine.  The five-year-old gets in light with only 115 pounds, running well of late, and has three wins over the track.  Doesn’t look to be of the caliber of many of the others in here but with the right setup could ran late for a small share.  Wet track suits.

2) Vino Rosso.  Was a player on the Derby and Triple Crown trail last year and ran respectfully in the Jim Dandy and Travers at Saratoga.  Returned to racing with a win in his four-year-old debut last month with a win at Aqueduct in the one-mile Stymie.  3 for 3 lifetimes over the track but is 7 furlongs what he really wants to do at this level?

3) Life in Shambles.  First of two in here trained by Jason Servis who is batting .360 for the year on the win.  The 8-year-old will have to sit off what looks to be a very hot pace to be successful.  Other incite more.

4) Identity Politics.  Second start of his 4-year-old campaign coming off a meaningful second in an optional claimer last month at Gulfstream.  This guy has always been well regarded but just doesn’t win.  If the light ever really goes on this guy could be a beast.

5) Skyler’s Scramjet.  Brings speed and lots of it to the party.  Working well and keeping pretty good company.  Think he will succumb to the hot pace and be off the board.

6) Timber Ghost.  Ran well in New York last years with two wins and a placing.  Took the winter off and returned to racing last month at Gulfstream in an optional claimer running second in a slow race.  Working well and should enjoy a wet track.  Only watching him in this one for maybe somewhere else down the road.

7) Honor Up.  Second runner in the lineup for trainer Michelle Nevin.  The four-year-old New York Bred blossomed last fall and over the early winter winning his last three and four of his last five.  Working like he is ready to come back running, likes the track, and any moisture he will not mind.  The anticipated hot pace could set this guy up for a big one.

8) World of Trouble.  The second runner from Jason Servis looks to be a universe of trouble for the rest of the field.  Should be the speed of the speed in here, three for three on wet tracks, and buries the field on speed figs.  Only real knock I think he is better on turf than on dirt.

The Plays

On paper this looks to be another walkover that I get to pick but they don’t run them on paper.  In my heart I’m rooting for World of Trouble and his great connections.  However, my head and wallet are going elsewhere.  With the anticipated hot pace going to take a flyer with Honor Up getting up late for the upset.

$20 Win and $20 Place 7                     $40

$10 Exacta Box 7/8                             $20

$1 Tri 7-8/2-3-4-7-8/1-2-3-4-7-8      $32

                                                              $92  Total

Have A Day!

Mike Mills

 

Handicapper's Corner: Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes (G1)

Is the Pegasus World Cup a Lock for Accelerate?

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

Frank Stronach had an idea.  Change the name of the Donn Handicap to the Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes, boost the purse to $12 million, and get the horsemen to pay for it. But the Pegasus isn’t just another big race for older horses. Gulfstream Park likes to put on a circus of sorts, fine dining, celebrity party tents, and entertainment, before during, and after the event, much like the Triple Crown races and Breeders’ Cup. 

In only two years, Stronach’s idea has paid off for the track. The Pegasus Stakes has become the most talked about event for older horses.  The contest is televised, and in the last three years, fans have seen heavyweights California Chrome, Arrogate, and Gun Runner. 

The Favorites

This year, the Pegasus drew another full field of twelve. The one receiving most of the attention is recently named 2018 Horse of the Year Accelerate, who breaks from the perfect position of post 5, and has a morning line of 9/5. Last year, the son of Lookin at Lucky won 6 of 7 starts. The only mar on perfection was a neck lost to City of Light in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2).  Accelerate topped off last year with a one-length victory in the Breeders’ Cup Classic over Gunnevera. Accelerate is following in the hoofprints of Arrogate and Gun Runner, both pulled off the Classic/Pegasus double. 

City of Light, the only horse to beat Accelerate last year, drew post 3 and with morning line odds of 5/2.  The free-running son of Quality Road was last seen capturing the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile by 2 3/4-lengths over Seeking the Soul and Bravazo. Normally competing as a sprinter/miler, City of Light stretched out successfully to 1 1/8 miles once in his career, to upset Accelerate. 

Back for More

Two old warriors are back for more. Gunnevera and Seeking the Soul both competed in last year’s Pegasus.  Gunnevera placed third, while Seeking the Soul, stuck in post 11, offered no response in the stretch and finished in fifth place. 

Gunnevera has won or placed in eight of nine starts over Gulfstream Park, his home track. In the last year, he’s finished off the board only once, and that was in the Dubai World Cup. There are two drawbacks for Gunnevera. One is that he draws post 8, and the other is that he is 0-3 at 1 1/8 miles. Post 8 isn’t as much of a concern for the colt’s closing running style, as it would be if he were a pace presser. I’m pretty confident that Irad Ortiz, Jr. can work out the right trip. 

Seeking the Soul is also a one-run stalker, and drew post 4. The six-year-old usually picks up a check; he’s been in the money 17 of 23-lifetime starts. He was last seen finishing third in the Clark Handicap. 

The Invader

Kukulkan is a perfect 14 for 14, including capturing the Mexico Triple Crown. Last December, Kukulkan proved that he could race outside of Mexico and dominated the 1 1/8 mile Caribbean Classic at Gulfstream by 10 1/4 lengths. The drawbacks are post 9 and the big step up in company, but Kukulkan isn’t just some creatively bred Mexican horse. By graded stakes winner Point Determined, he’s out of a daughter of Bernardini, and Kukulkan’s second dam is the grade 1 winning sprinter Mayo on the Side, whose claim to fame was beating 3-time Champ Azari in the Humana Distaff. 

The Youngsters

Three 4-year-olds will try to upset the older horses. Besides Kukulkan, Audible and Bravazo will try to get the job done from opposite ends of the field.

Audible was most recently seen floundering in the mud in the Harlan’s Holiday Stakes. He tried hard but was left with too much to do at the end, settling for second place, beaten only a 1/2 length by Sir Anthony, who had a much better trip. Audible has captured two of three starts at Gulfstream, including last year’s Florida Derby. The colt’s regular rider Castellano is sticking with City of Light, whom he rode to victory in the Breeders’ Cup Mile.  California jock, Flavien Pratt will guide Audible.   

Breaking from post 1, Bravazo gets to take the short way around the track. He was last seen finishing second by a desperate neck in the Clark Handicap. Last year, the colt hit the board in 7 of 11 starts. However, the last time he visited the winner's circle was in the Risen Star Stakes. Still, Bravazo tries hard, and he’s been breezing well.

Out in Right Field

Way out in post 12, Patternrecognition is one of four horses who may vie for the lead or press the pace. On the plus side, the Bay horse is out of the hot Chad Brown barn and will have Jose Ortiz aboard. The duo has teamed for a 38% win rate over the last three months.  On the downside, Patternrecognition will be widest off all around the first turn and have to expend energy to set or press the pace. Additionally, the sprinter/miler is stretching out to 1 1/8 miles for the first time. 

The Underdogs

Tom’s d’Etat is jumping up in class, but this is a horse who likes to win. The son of Smart Strike brings a four-race win streak to the Pegasus, including two victories at 1 1/8 miles. 

True Timber isn’t as accomplished stakes-wise as some of the heavy hitters but did gain ground to finish second in the Cigar Mile last time out. Despite a stamina-oriented pedigree, the son of Mineshaft is 0-2 at 1 1/8 miles and prefers competing as a sprinter/miler. 

The Old Guys

8-year old Something Awesome and 9-year-old Imperative make up the remainder of the field. 

Something Awesome earns a check more often than not and is 2 for 2 at 1 1/8 miles. This old guy can still run. He owns the second-highest late pace speed figure in the field.

In almost every field, there’s one horse who is way out of his league. It seems even the Pegasus Stakes isn’t immune to this factor. At 9 years old, Imperative’s best days are behind him. He’s earned close to 3-million dollars but hasn’t won a race since the 2017 Charlestown Classic. This poor old guy was beaten 20 lengths in his last start, a $62K Optional Claimer at Gulfstream Park. Mr. Paolucci, please do the right thing by this poor old warrior and let him retire with dignity.    

Selections

The one thing anyone knows for sure about racing at Gulfstream Park is that being stuck in an outside post is worse than Miami rush hour traffic in the winter. 

That being said, the two heavy hitters, Accelerate and City of Light have drawn great posts. So, do I go with the flow and pick Accelerate on top? He’s the class of the field and fits right in the likes of Arrogate and Gun Runner.  The two are closely matched, speed figure wise.   

Picking the favorite is boring, so I’m going with City of Light on top. He figures to be close to the pace and can get the jump on Accelerate like he did at Oaklawn Park. 

The only speedball in here is Patternrecognition, and he’ll have his hooves full getting to the lead from the far outside. Gunnevera and Bravazo always run their race, and usually, pick up a check. So does Audible, but I don’t think 1 1/8 miles is his best distance, and despite being a one-run closer, he’s stuck in an outside post and will be wide on the first turn. Kukulkan ran a huge race in the Caribbean Classic. He’s worth a look to hit the board.

 #3 City of Light (5-2)

#5 Accelerate (9-5)

#8 Gunnevera (8-1)

#1 Bravazo (12-1)

Handigambling:

A full field offers plenty of betting opportunities. Here’s how I’ll use ThoroFan’s $100 virtual money.

Straight bets across the board on the “most likely to win” offer no value, so let’s have fun with exotics.

$0.20 Super Key: #3/#1, #5, #6, #8, #9, #10 = $24.00

$0.20 Super Key: #5/#1, #3, #6, #8, #9, #10 = $24.00

$0.20 Super Key: #8/ #1, #3, #5, #6, #9, #10 = $24.00

$0.20 Super Key: #1/ #3, #5, #6, #8, #9, #10 = $24.00

Total bet $96.00