Is the Pegasus World Cup a Lock for Accelerate?
By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power
In only two years, Stronach’s idea has paid off for the track. The Pegasus Stakes has become the most talked about event for older horses. The contest is televised, and in the last three years, fans have seen heavyweights California Chrome, Arrogate, and Gun Runner.
The Favorites
This year, the Pegasus drew another full field of twelve. The
one receiving most of the attention is recently named 2018 Horse of the Year Accelerate, who breaks from the perfect
position of post 5, and has a morning line of 9/5. Last year, the son of Lookin
at Lucky won 6 of 7 starts. The only mar
on perfection was a neck lost to City of Light in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2). Accelerate topped off last year with a one-length victory in the Breeders’ Cup
Classic over Gunnevera. Accelerate is following in the hoofprints of Arrogate
and Gun Runner, both pulled off the Classic/Pegasus double.
City of Light, the only horse to beat
Accelerate last year, drew post 3 and with
morning line odds of 5/2. The
free-running son of Quality Road was last seen capturing the Breeders’ Cup Dirt
Mile by 2 3/4-lengths over Seeking the
Soul and Bravazo. Normally competing as a
sprinter/miler, City of Light stretched out successfully to 1 1/8 miles once in
his career, to upset Accelerate.
Back for More
Two old warriors are back for more. Gunnevera and Seeking
the Soul both competed in last year’s Pegasus.
Gunnevera placed third, while Seeking the Soul, stuck in post 11,
offered no response in the stretch and finished in fifth place.
Gunnevera has won
or placed in eight of nine starts over Gulfstream Park, his home track. In the
last year, he’s finished off the board only once, and that was in the Dubai
World Cup. There are two drawbacks for Gunnevera. One is that he draws post 8,
and the other is that he is 0-3 at 1 1/8 miles. Post 8 isn’t as much of a
concern for the colt’s closing running style, as it would be if he were a pace
presser. I’m pretty confident that Irad Ortiz, Jr. can work out the right trip.
Seeking the Soul is
also a one-run stalker, and drew post 4. The six-year-old
usually picks up a check; he’s been in
the money 17 of 23-lifetime starts. He
was last seen finishing third in the Clark Handicap.
The Invader
Kukulkan is a perfect 14 for 14, including capturing the
Mexico Triple Crown. Last December, Kukulkan proved that he could race outside
of Mexico and dominated the 1 1/8 mile Caribbean Classic at Gulfstream by 10
1/4 lengths. The drawbacks are post 9 and the big step up in company, but Kukulkan isn’t just some creatively
bred Mexican horse. By graded stakes winner Point Determined, he’s out of a
daughter of Bernardini, and Kukulkan’s second dam is the grade 1 winning
sprinter Mayo on the Side, whose claim to fame was beating 3-time Champ Azari
in the Humana Distaff.
The Youngsters
Three 4-year-olds will try to upset the older horses. Besides
Kukulkan, Audible and Bravazo will try to
get the job done from opposite ends of the field.
Audible was most recently
seen floundering in the mud in the Harlan’s Holiday Stakes. He tried hard but was left
with too much to do at the end, settling for second place, beaten only a 1/2
length by Sir Anthony, who had a much better trip. Audible has captured two of
three starts at Gulfstream, including last year’s Florida Derby. The colt’s
regular rider Castellano is sticking with City of Light, whom he rode to
victory in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. California
jock, Flavien Pratt will guide Audible.
Breaking from post 1, Bravazo gets to take the short way around the
track. He was last seen finishing second
by a desperate neck in the Clark Handicap. Last year, the colt hit the board in
7 of 11 starts. However, the last time he
visited the winner's circle was in the
Risen Star Stakes. Still, Bravazo tries
hard, and he’s been breezing well.
Out in Right Field
Way out in post 12, Patternrecognition is one of four horses
who may vie for the lead or press the pace. On the plus side, the Bay horse is
out of the hot Chad Brown barn and will have Jose Ortiz aboard. The duo has teamed for a 38% win rate over the last
three months. On the downside, Patternrecognition
will be widest off all around the first turn
and have to expend energy to set or press the pace. Additionally, the sprinter/miler
is stretching out to 1 1/8 miles for the first time.
The Underdogs
Tom’s d’Etat is jumping
up in class, but this is a horse who likes to win. The son of Smart Strike brings
a four-race win streak to the Pegasus, including two victories at 1 1/8 miles.
True Timber isn’t
as accomplished stakes-wise as some of the heavy hitters but did gain ground to finish second in the Cigar Mile last
time out. Despite a stamina-oriented pedigree, the son of Mineshaft is 0-2 at 1
1/8 miles and prefers competing as a sprinter/miler.
The Old Guys
8-year old Something Awesome and 9-year-old Imperative make
up the remainder of the field.
Something Awesome
earns a check more often than not and is 2 for 2
at 1 1/8 miles. This old guy can still run. He owns the second-highest late
pace speed figure in the field.
In almost every field, there’s one horse who is way out of
his league. It seems even the Pegasus Stakes isn’t immune to this factor. At 9 years old, Imperative’s best days are behind him. He’s earned close to 3-million dollars but hasn’t won a race since
the 2017 Charlestown Classic. This poor old guy was
beaten 20 lengths in his last start, a $62K Optional Claimer at
Gulfstream Park. Mr. Paolucci, please do the right thing by this poor old
warrior and let him retire with dignity.
Selections
The one thing anyone knows for sure about racing at Gulfstream
Park is that being stuck in an outside post is worse than Miami rush hour
traffic in the winter.
That being said, the
two heavy hitters, Accelerate and
City of Light have drawn great posts. So, do I go with the flow and pick Accelerate
on top? He’s the class of the field and
fits right in the likes of Arrogate and Gun Runner. The two are
closely matched, speed figure wise.
Picking the favorite is boring, so I’m going with City of Light on top. He figures to be close to the pace and can get the jump on Accelerate like he did at Oaklawn Park.
The
only speedball in here is Patternrecognition, and he’ll have his
hooves full getting to the lead from the far outside. Gunnevera and Bravazo always run their race, and usually, pick up a check. So does Audible, but
I don’t think 1 1/8 miles is his best distance, and
despite being a one-run closer, he’s
stuck in an outside post and will be wide on the first turn. Kukulkan ran a huge race in the Caribbean
Classic. He’s worth a look to hit the board.
#3 City of Light (5-2)
#5 Accelerate (9-5)
#8 Gunnevera (8-1)
#1 Bravazo (12-1)
Handigambling:
A full field offers plenty of betting opportunities. Here’s
how I’ll use ThoroFan’s $100 virtual money.
Straight bets across the board on the “most likely to win” offer
no value, so let’s have fun with exotics.
$0.20 Super Key: #3/#1, #5, #6, #8, #9, #10 = $24.00
$0.20 Super Key: #5/#1, #3, #6, #8, #9, #10 = $24.00
$0.20 Super Key: #8/ #1, #3, #5, #6, #9, #10 = $24.00
$0.20 Super Key: #1/ #3, #5, #6, #8, #9, #10 = $24.00
Total bet $96.00
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