Hot Pace in Marshua's River Could Set Up For Closer
By: John Caro, S. Florida ThoroFan
#1 Bellavais (7/2) – Pletcher/Castellano – She is
the class of the field with many black type races and some graded stakes at
this level. Her posted speeds are good and she travels tracking the pace near
the front when doing her best work. She won the Ginger Brew here during her
three-year old campaign then moved up to the mid-eastern tracks winning only
once over the lawn in 2017 then took a long (mare) break. She was given to
Pletcher’s barn and he had her out for a win going a turf mile at Belmont after
a year’s layoff with Javier abroad. Another 60 day break and she ran in the My
Charmer flattened out to finish forth. Given the connections I have to like
this mom but her heart in it? ITM but not the winner.
#2 Hogan’s Holiday (20-1) – Vitali/Reyes – She had two
very nice wins at GPW when Reyes put her in a good closing move to take back to
back wins at 20-1 and 40-1. Nice paydays. Then she went to the Tropical Parks
Oaks (44-1) and nearly got crushed by her neighbors after three steps from the
gate as the whole field ran for the first turn and the rail. She was shuffled
back further through the turn and had terrible traffic throughout. But, good
news, Reyes final move was a good effort and there was nobody in the race that
closed quicker, through traffic, losing by 3.5 behind a wall and a very hot
pace. If she stays out of trouble and makes that kind of move, she could be
dangerous at another huge price.
#3 – Bombshell (6-1) – Delacour/Saez – She is in
great form since coming over to Delacour. ITM three for four and three wins
with two black type wins with two wins on the turf and a third by a neck as
well. I like it. She likes to run near or on the lead which fits Saez to a T
and she can be versatile to hang back a bit with the ability to kick late.
Given her form, her price and the last statement above, she could well be a win
contender.
#4 – Valedictorian (6-1) – Breen/Gaffalione – She dueled
hard last time in the Claiming Crown Tiara with G aboard and was over taken by
Peru. For those of you have the ability to watch the Tiara, I suggest you do
so. It’s likely that this race will pace out very similar. No question that Val
can stay with a solid pace and her mid-race speed can press any leader. She
holds her form well only missing a first or second finish once in the last
seven outings. I expect she’ll be second again given the late or power closers
today.
#5 – Rose Tree (20-1) – Sheppard/Hernandez, B Jr. –
Bad news, she’s only tried the turf once here for the Tropical Park Oaks when
three. Poor speed in that one but a nice closing kick. Good news, Sheppard
brings in sneaky good runners and the jockey’s last out with this girl was
successful on dirt here. Two bullet works and her record on the AW and a wet
track is encouraging. She is a closer. If a hot pace develops, she will be ITM
if she handles the grass.
#6 – I’m Betty G (5-1) – Maker/Ortiz, I Jr. – I loved
this one when she was at Kentucky Downs and bet her with vigor. Her prior
record said she was in top form and looked well. KD racing is a different animal
and demands pace awareness at its best. She didn’t have it that day. Since then
she has gone out of form and that’s not encouraging even with Irad aboard. She’s
done her best on flat tracks going a mile. I just don’t figure her at these
odds, or winning. ITM? Maybe, but doubtful. I’d have given her 10 or 12-1 ML.
#7 – La Signare (3-1) – Lynch/Ortiz, J. – This gal is
lightly raced but has competed with Grade I company and won in Grade III. Lynch
has had her out burning up Palm Meadows lawn five times since the beginning of
December. Her last win in the Wonder Again at Belmont against a significant foe
was pedestrian through a half. Rosario was putting them to sleep. When the
favorite made the move La Signare moved quicker and held. The next race in the
Belmont Oaks she was put on the front and was tough through a mile and
regressed rapidly. Hopefully, Jose can find a happy medium in her pace. I’d
like her on top for this race, but I don’t think she’ll get the luxury of a
slow pace.
#8 – Monte Crista (4-1) – Trombetta/Velazquez – I’ve
been looking forward to seeing this little girl run. If you haven’t followed
along there is an article about her trials and tribulations while at Woodbine
and Trombetta’s frustration with a vet check for blood. It’s on the internet.
From a form standpoint she is excellent. Don’t let the speed figures confuse
you. Take a look at the times and tracks she’s been over. She hot. Throw out
the last on the soft going at Belmont…she never got her footing though she has
shown she can go over a good turf. She’s won four of six and a third place
finish on the lawn and two for two at the distance. She’s out of Cape Blanco so
you know where her heart is. Coming down she worked the GP turf twice with a
speed work on the dirt as well. She seems to be the most consistent speed and
can move to a higher gear. I think Johnny V can work out a trip for her.
Betting – On the face of it La
Signare should be on top but the pace of the race is going to be quick and I
believe a closer is going to be there at the line.
$2 Trifecta – 3, 8 with 3, 8, 7,
2 with All $72
$4 Exacta Box – 3, 8, 2 $24
Alternate bet
$7 Exacta - All with 8 $49
$4 Exacta – All with 2 $28
Take a flyer on the #2…. a
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