Handicapper's Corner: LeComte Stakes (G3)

Full Field Wars for 2019 Kentucky Derby Points in LeComte

By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers-Off

This year marks the 75th running of the LeComte Stakes, a race that has held Grade 3 designation since 2003, and been run at distances varying from a mile to a mile and an eighth.  LeComte, by Boston out of the mare Reel, is best known as the only horse to hand Lexington a defeat.  On April 8, 1854, LeComte beat Lexington in two straight four-mile heats, with his setting a new four-mile record of 7 minutes, 26 seconds. LeComte is also a half-brother of another horse whose name lives on as the namesake of a three-year-old stakes race: his dam Reel also produced Prioress, by Sovereign.  Racing from ages two through seven, Prioress was the first American-bred and American-owned horse to win in England, and still has a sophomore fillies' sprint stakes run in her honor at Saratoga.

Though no winner of the LeComte has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby, 2013 hero Oxbow would go on to win the Preakness.  Several other LeComte victors have gone on to Classic placings: No Le Hace (1972) finished second in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, Linkage (1982) finished second in the Preakness, and Hard Spun (2007) finished second in the Kentucky Derby and third in the Preakness.

The 2019 edition of the LeComte drew an overflow field to contend for a $200,000 purse and Kentucky Derby points for the top four finishers (10-4-2-1): 14 horses, plus one also eligible entry. The forecast for New Orleans on Saturday calls for rain through the morning, and wind during the day.  The wind may help dry the track somewhat, but if the forecast holds, it's unlikely the track will be truly fast by the time the dirt stakes roll around.  Thus, it'll be a positive if a horse has off-track form or good slop breeding.

There are a few pace horses, but the sharpest -- Manny Wah and Tight Ten -- are mired to the outside. A wire-to-wire score seems unlikely, but it looks like a good race for a better-drawn horse with some tactical speed to sit the trip and take over. 

And, that's just what War of Will can do.  The son of War Front started his career on the grass, becoming Grade 1 placed as a maiden, but finally got off the mark in a dirt maiden at Churchill Downs on November 24.  He stalked, pounced, and won easily over the sloppy track that day; trainer Mark Casse and owner Gary Barber must be thrilled with the forecast this time. The race was a mile and a sixteenth, so he is proven at two turns.  Tyler Gaffalione misses a day at Gulfstream to reunite with War of Will in the LeComte, another good sign. Though he has been on the shelf since November 24, the work pattern is regular since mid-December, and Casse fires at 17% off similar layoffs.  Add to that Casse's strong start at Fair Grounds, and War of Will is a formidable horse for formidable connections.

Plus Que Parfait will have to overcome an outside gate, but otherwise, there is plenty to like about the son of Point of Entry.  He blossomed in his two most recent races, his only tries going two turns on dirt: he broke his maiden third-out at Keeneland, nosing out another talented one in Harvey Wallbanger, and then fell just a neck shy of the more experienced Signalman in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), his stakes debut.  Plus Que Parfait has shown tactical versatility as well, winning from near the lead in his maiden score, but rallying from near the rear in the Kentucky Jockey Club.  That gives jockey Julien Leparoux options on where to put him, useful when navigating that outside post.

Finally, Tackett intrigues.  Though he makes his first stakes try in the LeComte, he does have the advantage of local form.  The son of Limehouse finished third on debut at Laurel, sprinting on the dirt, and then stretched out to this mile and seventy yard trip at Fair Grounds for a maiden on November 24.  He won on the front end -- and then returned to win a first-level allowance over the same course and distance from a stalking spot.  The one question is the wet track, since he has only run over fast dirt, but the pedigree is there.  (That holds especially true for dam Unostrike, by 19% mud stallion Macho Uno out of a mare who ran well over sloppy footing.)  Tackett's allowance win came with jockey Joe Bravo aboard; Bravo returns to the irons today.  He has been smiling for a lot of win pictures with trainer Mike Stidham in recent times: they're 27% of the last two months with a positive ROI.  If Tackett can take the modest step forward, he needs to run to the best of this company, they may be posing again.

Selections

#8 War of Will (6/1)
#12 Plus Que Parfait (9/2)
#3 Tackett (6/1) 

Longshot:  #7 Roiland (12/1) makes his first start since a credible albeit belated fifth in the Kentucky Jockey Club.  He showed a pattern of being a bit slow at the start at age two, though the addition of blinkers may help him show a bit more early position.  Trainer Tom Amoss is smart about when to add that headgear, as evidenced by his 23% win rate going first-time blinkers.  Amoss is also strong with layoff horses, a 25% winner over the last three years with horses rested 45-90 days. Though Roiland hasn't raced at Fair Grounds yet he has been working there since December, so he has had the chance to settle in.  Finally, the wet track should serve him well: he is by superstar mud sire Successful Appeal, and improved well enough late in the Kentucky Jockey Club last time out to suggest he can handle the surface.