Handicapper's Corner: Risen Star Stakes (G2) Div. 1

Mr. Monomoy looks for Risen Star redemption

By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers Off 

 

This year, the Risen Star Stakes (G2) is bigger and better than ever, in a few regards.  For one, so many horses pointed toward it that the race had to split into two divisions.  Each division is worth a cool $400,000, and each division awards its top four finishers the full 50-20-10-5 points that it would have offered even if the race had not split off.

Furthermore, the distance of the race is longer than ever.  Extended from a mile and forty yards to a mile and a sixteenth in 1991, it has been run at that distance every year from then until 2019.  Now, instead of having to wait until the final round of preps to test their ability to stay a mile and a sixteenth against stakes horses, trainers and owners can get a stiffer test of their horses’ stamina earlier in the process.

Though the winner of the Risen Star has still never won the Kentucky Derby (G1), the 2019 Derby winner did contest the Risen Star; Country House made his graded stakes debut in the Risen Star, rallying to finish second behind War of Will.  War of Will won the Preakness last year; he joins 1975 Preakness winner Master Derby, who won this race when it was called the Louisiana Derby Trial Stakes.  Other top-class winners of the Risen Star include 2007 Champion Older Horse Lawyer Ron (2006), 2013 Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) winner Mucho Macho Man (2011), and 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner (2016).

This preview focuses on the first division of the Risen Star, run as Race 12 at Fair Grounds on Saturday, February 15.  In a separate piece here at ThoroFan, Laurie Ross will look at the second division of the race.

Race 12: Risen Star Stakes (G2), three-year-olds, one and one eighth miles on the dirt, post time 6:38pm CST

This division of the Risen Star could very well be called the Lecomte Rematch Division: five of the top six finishers turn up in this race, including the top three: Enforceable, Silver State, and Mr. Monomoy.  The Lecomte Stakes featured a wicked early pace, thanks mainly to Bango and Shashashakemeup.  Shashashakemeup returns in this division of the Risen Star, and the likes of Ready to Roll and Blackberry Wine suggests the fractions should be honest, though perhaps not as breakneck as they were in the Lecomte. 

That suggests things won’t be terrible for talented closers like Enforceable or Silver State, though not quite perfect, either.  Between those two, Enforceable appeals a bit more than Silver State does.  Not only did Enforceable beat Silver State on the square last time, but Enforceable is already a winner at the Risen Star’s nine-furlong distance. 

Silver State is more of a question mark going a mile and an eighth.  The Hard Spun on top is a positive influence, though his dam was a sprinter and judging from her progeny a mile and an eighth is likely to test his stamina.

The biggest beneficiary, both from the likely pace and the stretch out to a mile and an eighth, is the third-place finisher from the Lecomte: Mr. Monomoy.  Though he could not hold off the late-closing pair of Enforceable and Silver State, he came home five and a quarter lengths clear of fourth-place Finnick the Fierce despite being close to a pace that caused everyone else who raced near it to wilt.  It was a strong effort, especially for a horse who had only three previous starts, only one at a route and none in stakes company.

If Mr. Monomoy gets the same kind of trip this time, sitting a length or two off a pace that isn’t torrid like last time, he could get the jump and be able to hold off the closers.  His pedigree only strengthens his chances to thrive with this step up in trip: he is by Belmont winner Palace Malice, and a half-sister to Monomoy Girl, a three-time G1 winner at a mile and an eighth.

Of course, the Lecomte is not the entire picture, not even in this division of the Risen Star.  The top two finishers from an important allowance race on January 18 return in the Risen Star: Blackberry Wine and Digital. 

Digital’s odds are stacked against him: he is hemmed on the rail in an eleven-horse field, he could not stave off Blackberry Wine’s re-rally at a mile and a sixteenth, and Digital’s pedigree (Into Mischief out of a Grand Slam mare who was herself a sprinter, and has mainly produced sprinters) suggests he should be cutting back from a mile and a sixteenth, not stretching out an extra half-furlong. 

Blackberry Wine, on the other hand?  Though, admittedly, part of why he got past Digital late tied to distance limitations, it still shows guts and maturity to get passed and come back.  And, though Blackberry Wine may not make the top (it depends on how hard Ready to Roll and the newly blinkered Digital send), he has shown some ability from just off the pace as well.  Blackberry Wine is also bred to handle the stretch-out in trip, being by the stoutly bred Oxbow out of a mare who has already produced a nine-furlong winner.  Blackberry Wine looks like a promising new face who is well set for his stakes debut.

Selections:

#9 Mr. Monomoy (6/1)

#7 Blackberry Wine (5/1)

#8 Enforceable (7/2)

Longshot:  Trainer Bill Mott ran a good second in this race with a horse who had yet to try stakes company, eventual Kentucky Derby winner Country House.  He returns this year with another promising yet relatively inexperienced prospect, #5 Moon Over Miami (10/1).  Two starts ago he won a one-mile maiden special weight with authority, sitting a few lengths off a hot pace and drawing off easily.  

He returned in an allowance at Gulfstream on January 11 but finished a disappointing fifth as the favorite.  However, he did not get quite as sharp a pace to chase behind frontrunning winner Ny Traffic.  He may have also regressed off a big maiden win.  Now he has that behind him.  He should get some pace in front of him again this time, honest but not blistering, suitable for his running style.  And the stretch to a mile and an eighth should suit him nicely: he is by Malibu Moon out of Zinzay, a mare who is G3-placed at two turns on the grass, and from the family of Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) winner Music Note and John C. Mabee (G1) winner Musical Chimes.