Handicappers Corner: 2020 Arkansas Derby (G1), Division 1

Arkansas Derby Div. 1 filled with Contenders and Charlatans

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

During the last few days of April in any normal year, I would be waiting on the post-position draw for the Kentucky Derby, then begin handicapping the race. However, the only thing that has resembled normal thus far in 2020 were the first two months, and then Covid-19 struck and brought nearly everything to a halt. I say nearly everything, because horses are still racing, but only at a few select tracks, albeit no attendance.

One of those ovals that have been operating during this pandemic is Oaklawn Park, where this Saturday, which is closing day, split editions of the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby will offer up points for those 3-year olds who pin their hopes on running in the Kentucky Derby, rescheduled for September 5^th. 

The 9-furlong Arkansas Derby is traditionally one of the final preps for the Run for the Roses, but with the postponement of the ‘most exciting two minutes in sports’, Oaklawn Park then shifted their marquee event to the first Saturday in May. So much for tradition. On to this weekend’s feature. 

From the rail out, let’s take a look at the first division of the $500k Arkansas Derby with a 100-40-20-10 point scale. 

    PP – Horse – Jockey/Trainer – ML 

    1     Charlatan – Martin Garcia/Bob Baffert – 1-1 – Stop me if you have heard this before. Baffert runner: Debuts in February - Wins maiden easily. Second race in March - Allowance romp. Wins Grade 1 stakes to pick up needed points for Kentucky Derby berth. This horse could be the 2020 version of Justify, but first, he has to ace this test. Has recorded monster speed figures in both starts. Excellent works for his stakes debut. Now, if he successfully stretches out his speed an extra furlong, he will be heading to Louisville in four months. Win contender.

    2     My Friends Beer – Declan Cannon/ Jeremiah O’Dwyer – 20-1 - His best speed figure isn’t competitive here. Pass.

    3     Mo Mosa – Kendrick Carmouche/Mike Maker – 30-1 – Was a big maiden winner on synthetic at Turfway in February, but seems to have tailed off since. Pass.

    4     Gouverneur Morris – John Velazquez/Todd Pletcher – 9-2 – Beat half the field in a decent 4^th-place effort the G1 Florida Derby won by Tiz the Law. He got shuffled back in the early running, but kept grinding along to the finish line. He was a nine-length debut winner at Saratoga and Grade 1 stakes placed as a juvenile. Has paired up his last two speed figures, often a sign off peaking form. Ships in and makes his third start off the layoff, two categories trainer Pletcher excels in. Win contender.

    5     Jungle Runner – Tyler Baze/Steve Asmussen – 30-1 – He has lost his last three races by a combined 54-lenghts. ‘Nuff said. Pass

    6     Shooters Shoot – Joe Talamo/Peter Eurton – 8-1 – SCRATCHED

    7     Wrecking Crew – Flavien Prat/Peter Miller – 20-1 – SCRATCHED

    8     Anneau d’Or – Juan Hernandez/Blaine Wright – 6-1 – This colt was in the position to win the B.C. Juvenile and Los Al Futurity last year, but seemed to hang and couldn’t deliver. Connections were hoping ‘blinkers on’ last race would help that cause, but this one ran the worse race of his four starts when finishing up the track in one of the divisions of the Risen Star. So, the blinkers have been removed here. His works have been really good and if he bounces back, he could be right there in the mix. Win Contender.

    9     Winning Impression – Julien Leparoux/Dallas Stewart – 15-1 – He was disqualified to fifth after hitting the wire first in a NW-1x at Oaklawn last time out. Has good current form, but his best efforts have come on sloppy tracks, but no rain is forecasted on Saturday at Oaklawn. Overall, he’s too slow to back for the win whether the track is wet or fast, but is useable underneath in the trifecta/superfecta slot. Exotics.

    10   Crypto Cash – Corey Lanerie/Ken McPeek – 20-1 – Is a dual surface winner having won on the dirt at Ellis Park when breaking maiden ranks, then came right back and scored in a N2L on turf at Churchill. He’s been away for seven weeks after stumbling at the start of the Rushaway Stakes. His recent works at Keeneland indicate he could be ready after the layoff, but this step up is too much to overcome. Pass.

    11   Basin – Ricardo Santana/Steve Asmussen – 8-1 – He is the only graded winner in the field having won the G1 Hopeful last summer as a juvenile in the slop at Saratoga. Has caught three off tracks in a row with indifferent results, but gets a fast track on Saturday, so maybe that will help. The horse has shown his best stuff when racing close up stalking the pace when sprinting. Since stretching out, he’s been taken back off the pace, so jockey Santana will have to work out a good trip breaking from the far outside. Exotics.

ANALYSIS: 

This is a weak lineup featuring a potential star pitted against some marginal players at best. For the win, the race boils down to Charlatan, and to a lesser extent, Anneau d’Or and Gouverneur Morris. 

Charlatan is unbeaten but unproven. He faces horses with experience in both graded stakes company and at longer distances, but his first two races were extremely impressive. The sky is the limit for this horse. Charlatan caught a huge break when the speedy Shooters Shoot scratched out here, and that should allow the Baffert runner to secure the lead from his rail post. From there some of the others will have to decide whether to stay close and not allow Charlatan his own way, and risk being empty for the stretch drive, or stay back and hope the colt hits the proverbial ‘brick wall’ in the final eighth. This 9-furlong distance is unchartered territory, but a pair of dominating performances and speed figures make him tough to deny.

Anneau d’Or’s has the only speed figure that rivals Charlatan, but it came six months ago in the Breeders’ Cup and may not be reliable. However, it does prove he is capable on his best day of firing a winning race. His works have been steady and swift and he reunites with rider Hernandez who has done extremely well aboard the horse.

Gouvernuer Morris was bottled up between horses until the three-quarter mark of the Florida Derby, before finally getting untracked, so his 4^th-place finish was a credible effort. We have not seen his best race to date, so there is plenty of room for improvement. He is on a positive form pattern that indicates a peak effort may be forthcoming.

PLAY: Charlatan, the most likely winner, will offer no value in the win pool, but one of the other noted win contenders should render bettable odds, and I’ll wager $10 on the higher of the two. 

In addition, I have constructed how I will bet the trifecta and superfecta.

$1 trifecta wheel – 1,4,8/1,4,8/4,8,9,11 - Cost $16

I’ll play a .20 cent superfecta constructed as such- 1-4-8/1-4-8-/4-8-9-11/4-8-9-11 – Cost $14

Good luck and as always, Enjoy the race.