Dancing through the Apple Blossoms
By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper
I hope everyone out there is doing well and staying healthy.
Thankfully, the tracks that have been allowed to stay open have been practicing
the fundamentals of safety during the pandemic and allowed us to see the only
live sporting events in the country, albeit without the crowds. But aren’t we lucky to have it? And for those of you who are tournament fans, the pools have
grown large because we are staying home.
This is great. A Grade I race with all the lovely older
ladies showing off their style, speed, and agility. With some of the best top
50 jockeys and the country’s top trainers in a race that always solidifies a
career for the winning filly or mare.
The top contenders for this one are as the morning line has
them spread out. Though the prices may not be in that order they finish, here are three girls whose prices are more favorable to launch an excellent
exacta bet.
#11 - Serengeti Empress (4-1) – Amoss/Talamo – No
question here as last year’s Kentucky Oaks winner steps forward into a wide
post. But that’s where she came from in the Oaks. Can Talamo find her in the
clear as he did in the last out here in the Azeri winning by 6? Maybe not.
Larger field, more traffic and some other speed next door in the #10. ITM
#4 Come Dancing (3-1) – Lukas/Geroux – She doesn’t
need the lead and tracks at high speed on a target. Draws well for this race as
the run to the turn is reasonable. The thing I like about her is her stats.
She’s been in the exacta 10 of her 14 races. Some might say she’s a sprinter,
but I think the pedigree says different and her record shows it. The layoff may be a concern but her work tab says different. My top pick.
#14 CeCe (7/2) – McCarthy/Espinoza – Talk about a
post in the right field. How unlucky for a filly that is three for five
lifetime, and one second. She is an exacta princess any time. Victor is going to
have to work out a trip. Will not leave her off my ticket.
And now the ones the ML don’t make sense to me.
#13 Lady Apple (15-1) Asmussen/Santana – How
interesting that Apple should be in the Apple Blossom. Kismet? She is five for
six at the distance, has beaten S. Express at the distance and is three for
four at Oaklawn. Did I mention the trainer is the top money winner for 2020 to
date or that the jockey (coming off a ten-day suspension) won four and placed
once yesterday bringing home two longshots in excess or 17-1? This is the
connections playground and they do very well here. If I get 10-1 or better, I’d
be surprised.
Joe Saffie, Jr. (26% wins/56% ITM) brings two with him for
the jump. #7 Queen Nekia (20-1) and #10 Cookie Dough (10-1), both
are yummy at the prices. Queeny may not look like much given her odds but she’s
been in the money 20 of 24 at lower levels and the only one in the field that
broke 32 seconds in the last 2.5 furlongs. She was ¾ short of a ties with
Cookie Dough. Cookie can get 32 seconds and may improve in her second start off
the layoff. Saffie has been slaying them at Gulfstream. Have to use these gals.
#1 Ollie’s Candy (12-1) – Sadler/Rosario – Who
doesn’t like Candy. Has seen some wicked competition in her eleven race career
but, she done well with seven of those in the exacta. Second off the layoff,
two wins at the distance, gets this year’s (so far) #2 jockey work tab is
stellar and again, who doesn’t like Candy?
#12 Go Google Yourself (12-1) – McGee/Hernandez – A
very scary combination. Except for a bobble at the start two back she might
have had four in a row. She comes off a nice win in Grade III company and she’s
familiar with an outside draw. 15 out of 19 in the money and 12 in the
exactas. McGee is 22% in stakes and
Brian loves a route race. Watch out for this combo.
Last of them in my mind is #5 Point of Honor (10-1) –
Weaver/Van Dyke – Another sleeper. Took a long break since August Castellano
took her out for a spin to come second missing by four so here is the set-up.
She’s been in the exacta 6 of 7 races winning 3, she’s a solid closer into
speed and one of Curlin’s girls. She seems good to me for any mega exacta play.
To me the rest are “Go Fish”
Handi-Gamble – get your past performances for free here:
I’m making an Exacta with a mix of high and low odds using
all of the above.
$1 Exacta Key – 4, 5, 10, 12, 13 with 1, 4, 5, 7, 10, 11, 12,
13, 14 = $40
$10 Win – 7, 5, 10, 12, 13 = $50
Alternative bets
$0.50 Trifecta – 4, 5 with 4, 5, 7, 10, 13 with 1, 4, 5, 7,
10, 11, 12, 13, 14 = $28
$2 Exacta Box – 4, 5, 7, 10, 12, 13 = $60
Personally, I like Come Dancing as my top pick. She
fits me. You could key her with any of the others and have a great time.
Good luck and everyone take care out there.
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