Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Ogden Phipps Stakes (G1)

Tickled Pink about the Ogden Phipps Stakes

By: John Caro, S. FL ThoroFan Member

Back to racing at Belmont with a Grade I stakes for fillies and mares going 1 1/16-miles.  Hope we can all cheer this from home for the fans in the stands will not be there. Grab a drink and some snacks and make a day of it. From what I’ve seen at Belmont it has been quick starts and hot paces leading me to think that this one will be no different.

The two ML favorites, #5 - Ollie’s Candy – Sadler/Rosario and #2 - Point of Honor – Weaver/Castellano come out of the Apple Blossom at Oaklawn Park.

Ollie’s Candy is the class of the field given the company she runs with.

Point of Honor, the only 4-year-old in the group, ran second behind Ollie’s Candy in the Apple Blossom after making up 14-15 lengths, finishing strong. Sounds like she’s a closer but that is not the case. Point of Honor spotted the field in that last race about 4 lengths starting out. Quite a performance.

#6 - Golden Award – Mott/Alvarado and #4 - Blamed – Mott/Velazquez are both high-speed front runners and will give the two above all they can handle on the pace.

#3 - She’s a Julie – Asmussen/ Santana is a pace attendant type who is on her second race since her lay-off. Expect more from her in this outing.

#1 - Pink Sands – McGaughey/Ortiz, J has recently come alive and has shown she can close well into a hot pace going shorter. She piques my interest as she’s never been out of the money at Belmont and her jockey is pretty crafty in the kind of set up. That said she will be my key for this race.

HandiGambling

$10 Exacta – All with #1 = $50

$.50 Trifecta X 5 – #2, #4, #6 with #1 with All = $30

$20 Win – #1

Could just play the last two wagers and be happy spending less…

Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Apple Blossom Handicap (G1)

Dancing through the Apple Blossoms 

By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper

I hope everyone out there is doing well and staying healthy. Thankfully, the tracks that have been allowed to stay open have been practicing the fundamentals of safety during the pandemic and allowed us to see the only live sporting events in the country, albeit without the crowds. But aren’t we lucky to have it? And for those of you who are tournament fans, the pools have grown large because we are staying home.

This is great. A Grade I race with all the lovely older ladies showing off their style, speed, and agility. With some of the best top 50 jockeys and the country’s top trainers in a race that always solidifies a career for the winning filly or mare.

The top contenders for this one are as the morning line has them spread out. Though the prices may not be in that order they finish, here are three girls whose prices are more favorable to launch an excellent exacta bet.

#11 - Serengeti Empress (4-1) – Amoss/Talamo – No question here as last year’s Kentucky Oaks winner steps forward into a wide post. But that’s where she came from in the Oaks. Can Talamo find her in the clear as he did in the last out here in the Azeri winning by 6? Maybe not. Larger field, more traffic and some other speed next door in the #10. ITM

#4 Come Dancing (3-1) – Lukas/Geroux – She doesn’t need the lead and tracks at high speed on a target. Draws well for this race as the run to the turn is reasonable. The thing I like about her is her stats. She’s been in the exacta 10 of her 14 races. Some might say she’s a sprinter, but I think the pedigree says different and her record shows it. The layoff may be a concern but her work tab says different. My top pick.

#14 CeCe (7/2) – McCarthy/Espinoza – Talk about a post in the right field. How unlucky for a filly that is three for five lifetime, and one second. She is an exacta princess any time. Victor is going to have to work out a trip. Will not leave her off my ticket.

And now the ones the ML don’t make sense to me.

#13 Lady Apple (15-1) Asmussen/Santana – How interesting that Apple should be in the Apple Blossom. Kismet? She is five for six at the distance, has beaten S. Express at the distance and is three for four at Oaklawn. Did I mention the trainer is the top money winner for 2020 to date or that the jockey (coming off a ten-day suspension) won four and placed once yesterday bringing home two longshots in excess or 17-1? This is the connections playground and they do very well here. If I get 10-1 or better, I’d be surprised.

Joe Saffie, Jr. (26% wins/56% ITM) brings two with him for the jump. #7 Queen Nekia (20-1) and #10 Cookie Dough (10-1), both are yummy at the prices. Queeny may not look like much given her odds but she’s been in the money 20 of 24 at lower levels and the only one in the field that broke 32 seconds in the last 2.5 furlongs. She was ¾ short of a ties with Cookie Dough. Cookie can get 32 seconds and may improve in her second start off the layoff. Saffie has been slaying them at Gulfstream. Have to use these gals. 

#1 Ollie’s Candy (12-1) – Sadler/Rosario – Who doesn’t like Candy. Has seen some wicked competition in her eleven race career but, she done well with seven of those in the exacta. Second off the layoff, two wins at the distance, gets this year’s (so far) #2 jockey work tab is stellar and again, who doesn’t like Candy? 

#12 Go Google Yourself (12-1) – McGee/Hernandez – A very scary combination. Except for a bobble at the start two back she might have had four in a row. She comes off a nice win in Grade III company and she’s familiar with an outside draw. 15 out of 19 in the money and 12 in the exactas.  McGee is 22% in stakes and Brian loves a route race. Watch out for this combo.

Last of them in my mind is #5 Point of Honor (10-1) – Weaver/Van Dyke – Another sleeper. Took a long break since August Castellano took her out for a spin to come second missing by four so here is the set-up. She’s been in the exacta 6 of 7 races winning 3, she’s a solid closer into speed and one of Curlin’s girls. She seems good to me for any mega exacta play.

To me the rest are “Go Fish”

Handi-Gamble – get your past performances for free here:

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/JohnSadler/SADLER+JOHN+W/9999/summary.htm

I’m making an Exacta with a mix of high and low odds using all of the above.

$1 Exacta Key – 4, 5, 10, 12, 13 with 1, 4, 5, 7, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14 = $40

$10 Win – 7, 5, 10, 12, 13 = $50

Alternative bets

$0.50 Trifecta – 4, 5 with 4, 5, 7, 10, 13 with 1, 4, 5, 7, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14  = $28 

$2 Exacta Box – 4, 5, 7, 10, 12, 13 = $60

Personally, I like Come Dancing as my top pick. She fits me. You could key her with any of the others and have a great time.

Good luck and everyone take care out there.

Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Santa Margarita Stakes (G2)

La Force Intriguing Prospect in Santa Margarita

By: John DaSilva, PARX Linemaker

 

The Santa Margarita Invitational Handicap is an interesting race that is being run at Santa Anita. The mile and an eighth race was downgraded this year by the American Graded Stakes Committee, one of six races downgraded from Grade 1 to Grade 2 status. 

The race is hoping to regain Grade 1 status and this year’s field, depending on the results here and the future, may help make that happen.

The 9/5 morning line favorite in the race is Paradise Woods. The winner of the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks and 2017 Zenyatta Stakes makes her third start for John Shirreffs.  She has lost her last seven starts since winning the Zenyatta. She comes into this race off a third place finish in the Grade 1 Beholder Mile Stakes. She will be ridden today by Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith. Shirreffs has been known to work his horses back into shape so this could be the key race for her for the rest of the year. Her class should take her to the winners’ circle versus these. But if she continues to fade in the stretch as she did in most of her recent losses, then it might be time to stop on her as a racing prospect.

The 3/1 second choice on the morning line is Lemoona. She was third to the impressive Escape Clause in the Grade 3 La Canada in January two starts back when making her last start on dirt. That was her only career graded stakes placing. The Richard Baltas trainee may have learned a new style of running with her victory last out, breaking slowly and being further off the pace than usual, but then made a wide move and drew off to a 5 ¼ length victory on April 6^th on turf going a mile and an eighth. She will be ridden here by Aaron Gryder.

An intriguing prospect in this race is the 4-1 third choice La Force, who is making her first start since tiring in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Distaff. While her record of 23-2-7-4 isn’t going to scare anyone away, her three consecutive second pace finishes in Grade 1 races last year prior to the Distaff is nothing to sneeze at. She is still looking for her first career stakes victory and if ready off the five plus month layoff, she could get it done under Drayden Van Dyke.

While the horse is a longshot, the jockey for the Ian Kruljac trained Exuberance is a story to watch here and down the road. Norberto Arroyo Jr. is named to ride the 20-1. Despite what Equibase says, this is Arroyo’s first mount since November 19, 2017. Arroyo has dealt with injuries and personal issues but hopefully the talented jockey is healthy physically and mentally for this comeback.

Selections

Betting the race can be an adventure here. The question is, how much does the public trust Paradise Woods. While the classy mare figures to be the main pacesetter of the race, we are going to key on another horse in hopes of getting value and the victory. 

La Force will be our top choice. Despite the layoff, she has the running style that fits well here. She should take over from the tiring pacesetter in the stretch and go on to victory.

Handigamblng

We suggest betting $20 across the board on La Force. Then have a $10 exacta box of La Force with Paradise Woods and Lemoona.  $100 total.