Saturday, April 27, 2019

Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Santa Margarita Stakes (G2)

La Force Intriguing Prospect in Santa Margarita

By: John DaSilva, PARX Linemaker

 

The Santa Margarita Invitational Handicap is an interesting race that is being run at Santa Anita. The mile and an eighth race was downgraded this year by the American Graded Stakes Committee, one of six races downgraded from Grade 1 to Grade 2 status. 

The race is hoping to regain Grade 1 status and this year’s field, depending on the results here and the future, may help make that happen.


The 9/5 morning line favorite in the race is Paradise Woods. The winner of the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks and 2017 Zenyatta Stakes makes her third start for John Shirreffs.  She has lost her last seven starts since winning the Zenyatta. She comes into this race off a third place finish in the Grade 1 Beholder Mile Stakes. She will be ridden today by Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith. Shirreffs has been known to work his horses back into shape so this could be the key race for her for the rest of the year. Her class should take her to the winners’ circle versus these. But if she continues to fade in the stretch as she did in most of her recent losses, then it might be time to stop on her as a racing prospect.


The 3/1 second choice on the morning line is Lemoona. She was third to the impressive Escape Clause in the Grade 3 La Canada in January two starts back when making her last start on dirt. That was her only career graded stakes placing. The Richard Baltas trainee may have learned a new style of running with her victory last out, breaking slowly and being further off the pace than usual, but then made a wide move and drew off to a 5 ¼ length victory on April 6th on turf going a mile and an eighth. She will be ridden here by Aaron Gryder.


An intriguing prospect in this race is the 4-1 third choice La Force, who is making her first start since tiring in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Distaff. While her record of 23-2-7-4 isn’t going to scare anyone away, her three consecutive second pace finishes in Grade 1 races last year prior to the Distaff is nothing to sneeze at. She is still looking for her first career stakes victory and if ready off the five plus month layoff, she could get it done under Drayden Van Dyke.


While the horse is a longshot, the jockey for the Ian Kruljac trained Exuberance is a story to watch here and down the road. Norberto Arroyo Jr. is named to ride the 20-1. Despite what Equibase says, this is Arroyo’s first mount since November 19, 2017. Arroyo has dealt with injuries and personal issues but hopefully the talented jockey is healthy physically and mentally for this comeback.

Selections
Betting the race can be an adventure here. The question is, how much does the public trust Paradise Woods. While the classy mare figures to be the main pacesetter of the race, we are going to key on another horse in hopes of getting value and the victory. 

La Force will be our top choice. Despite the layoff, she has the running style that fits well here. She should take over from the tiring pacesetter in the stretch and go on to victory.

Handigamblng
We suggest betting $20 across the board on La Force. Then have a $10 exacta box of La Force with Paradise Woods and Lemoona.  $100 total.

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