Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Jenny Wiley Stakes (G1)

Dethroning the Queen of Keeneland

By: Alex Sausville, RTIP Podcast

 

For a racing fan, the first days of spring did not come on the date of March 20th, 2019. Instead, they arise with the sun on opening day at Keeneland Race Course. As the bluegrass fans pile in for several weeks of top notch racing, the fillies and mares with hopes of major stakes campaigns throughout the summer and fall gaze towards the starting gate of the Jenny Wiley.

There are few stakes races that have produced future success to the level of the Coolmore Jenny Wiley. One major example would be the great Tepin, who parlayed a victory in the Jenny Wiley with the bookmakers of England in the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot. Other winners include Dickinson, Hard Not To Like, Centre Court, and most recently the Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf winner, Sistercharlie.

Coming off a long layoff, there could be some questions to be answered for the 6/5 ML favorite, Rushing Fall. Although Rushing Fall has shown success on the green grass of horse country in the past, I will be looking towards what seems to be the greatest prep race for the Jenny Wiley in recent memory, the Hillsborough.

Race Analysis:

A horse like Rushing Fall has one true question mark and that is the recent layoff. Off since a victory in the Queen Elizabeth II Cup at Keeneland last October, Rushing Fall will face a tough challenge in coming back in this very solid grade 1 event and prove she has not lost a step. Despite the layoff, there are very few faults in her resume. Trained by last year’s winning trainer Chad Brown, Rushing Fall is 3 for 3 at Keeneland, all three of which are graded stakes races. She also had a very similar layoff following her 2017 victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at Del Mar, and came back strong going a mile in the grade 2 Appalachian at Keeneland. This is a horse whose only career loss came by the length of her neck in the grade 3 Edgewood at Churchill Downs.

Despite Rushing Fall being considered the heavy favorite, the likely 2nd choice, Rymska(Fr), will come out as possibly the most likely opponent to upend Rushing Fall, as well as looking to join a couple recent Jenny Wiley winners who prepped for this event down in Western Florida. Rymska is coming off a two length score in the Hillsborough Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. The Hillsborough has been won by many successful horses including several Breeders Cup winners. Horses like Zagora, Stephanie’s Kitten and Tepin all captured the Hillsborough and continued on to great seasons. However, it was Tepin in 2016 as well as 2017 winner Dickinson who came from Tampa up through the bluegrass state and took the Jenny Wiley as well. With the question of how Rushing Fall comes back for this race, Rymska and the history of past winners give her the best shot to pull off a victory.

When looking through the rest of the field, there was one other horse that truly caught my eye and at a good price, should run a big race this Saturday. Princess Warrior, a 4-year old filly for trainer Kenny McPeek will be on her 2nd start back off a 3 month layoff that began with a victory in the Latonia at Turfway Park(or the old Latonia Race Course) in early March. This is a horse that has shown the ability to win at the distance in the past and could be getting back into good form at the right time to post a nice upset in the Saturday feature. The winner of last year’s Mrs. Revere at Churchill Downs has had only one race at Keeneland in the past and it came with a 4th place finish to Rushing Fall. However, if this horse continues to progress like I am expecting, she has the potential to flip the script.

My Plays:

$30 to win on 4 - Rymska(Fr)

$15 to win on 3 - Princess Warrior

$5 Ex Key Box - 4/2,3 = $20

$5 Ex Key Box - 3/2,4 = $20

$ 2 Tri Box - 2,3,4 = $12

Total: $97

Final Thoughts:

It is no secret to the racing world the true talent of Rushing Fall. A horse that thrives in the Blue Grass State and has been as consistent as it gets. However, at very short odds and the question of coming back after the long break, the opportunity to knock off a possibly overbet favorite and catch some really good value has come upon us. If a few of the challengers lined up for Saturday’s 10th race come to play, the current queen of Keeneland can be dethroned. 

Side Note:

The last race I wrote for was the Fair Grounds Oaks. I wanted to give a special shout out to the guy sitting a few tables down from me at Sunland Park on that Saturday. With just 3 minutes to post, he told one of his friends sitting next to him who had looked at the race to not worry about it. The exact words were, “unless the jockey falls off, that horse(Serengeti Empress) will not have a problem.” Although I did not have the right winner in Street Band, I appreciated the words of the guy who definitely did not help Serengeti Empress in her quest for the Fair Grounds Oaks and led to a 7th place finish at odds of ⅕. Such overconfidence is often frowned upon by superstitious horseplayers, myself included.