Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Belmont Oaks Invitational

Strong Group of Turf Fillies in Belmont Oaks

By: Michael Mills, ThoroFan Member

Saturday's Grade 1 Belmont Oaks Invitational or the “Chad Brown Invitational” is for 3-year-old fillies, going 1 1/4 miles on the inner turf course at Belmont Park.

 The Belmont Oaks Invitational is the first leg of the “Turf Tiara.”  The second leg coming Friday, August 2, at Saratoga with the inaugural Saratoga Oaks at 1 3/16-miles, and the final leg will be the new Jockey Club Oaks September 7 at Belmont.

Olendon - Bary/J. Velazquez

Find it interesting that this French-bred was just purchased by well-meant owners and will be trained by Chad Brown after this race.  Beaten just one-length in a Group 1 over the pond last time out racing the one mile and a quarter distance. Has run well on soft turf as well.  Looking for this girl to make a good representation of herself in here with a bright future ahead.

Newspaperofrecord - C. Brown/I. Ortiz Jr.

Clearly the Breeders’ Cup Champ has talent but her last two raise a red flag as to how far does she really want to go.  In her first two starts this year she has appeared headstrong.  Concrete Rose appeared to be more prepared for their last meeting.  With some other potential speed in here (Jodie) she might get a better pace to rate and if so, may be very tough to run down in the stretch even with the distance question mark.

Coral Beach - A. O’Brien/M. Hussey

Filly has already started 16 time but with just two wins.  Has kept good company with two Grade 1 appearances.  May enjoy the added ground.

Concrete Rose - G. Arnold II/J. Leparoux

This young lady has done little wrong thus far in her career winning four of five.  Her only defeat came in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf won by Newspaperofrecord.  Rose took the win however in their last matchup as much the best.  Hard to ignore this one.

Café Americano - C. Brown/J. Castellano

Unbeaten in two career starts she is stepping up big time in class to this Grad event, but after all it is the Chad Brown invitational so who knows.

Just Wonderful - A. O’Brien/W. Lordan

The second one in here from O’Brien has kept good company this being her fifth Grade 1 appearance.  Would need to step up her game to make an impact in     here, maybe the increase in distance helps her do just that.

Jodie - H. Toda/M. Muto

The Japan invader appears to bring speed with her to this event. This Miss has run the distance twice.  Reportedly runs better turning left.

Dyna Passer - T. Albertrani/J. Rosario

Ran well in both starts this year on the turf breaking her maiden going longer in her last.  While her figures seem low her breeding for the grass and distance intrigues me a bit.  She could pick up a share at a price if she improves.

Cambier Parc C. Brown/J. Ortiz, another filly from Brown, she comes in here off a win in the Wonder Again on the Belmont grass (outer course) besting Newpaperofrecord.  She appears to be improving with racing and age, also working well.

The Plays

Would not be surprised to see two of the three Chad Brown fillies run one/two in here.  Although concerned about if she can get the distance, Newspaperofrecord gets a better set up in here than in her last two and beats this field at what most likely will be another short price.  I’m going to try to be creative in this event and see if maybe just maybe we can squeeze out a fair priced trifecta.

$3 tri  1-2-8 / 1-2-4-8-9 / 1-2-4-6-8-9 $72

Have A Day!

Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Jenny Wiley Stakes (G1)

Dethroning the Queen of Keeneland

By: Alex Sausville, RTIP Podcast

 

For a racing fan, the first days of spring did not come on the date of March 20th, 2019. Instead, they arise with the sun on opening day at Keeneland Race Course. As the bluegrass fans pile in for several weeks of top notch racing, the fillies and mares with hopes of major stakes campaigns throughout the summer and fall gaze towards the starting gate of the Jenny Wiley.

There are few stakes races that have produced future success to the level of the Coolmore Jenny Wiley. One major example would be the great Tepin, who parlayed a victory in the Jenny Wiley with the bookmakers of England in the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot. Other winners include Dickinson, Hard Not To Like, Centre Court, and most recently the Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf winner, Sistercharlie.

Coming off a long layoff, there could be some questions to be answered for the 6/5 ML favorite, Rushing Fall. Although Rushing Fall has shown success on the green grass of horse country in the past, I will be looking towards what seems to be the greatest prep race for the Jenny Wiley in recent memory, the Hillsborough.

Race Analysis:

A horse like Rushing Fall has one true question mark and that is the recent layoff. Off since a victory in the Queen Elizabeth II Cup at Keeneland last October, Rushing Fall will face a tough challenge in coming back in this very solid grade 1 event and prove she has not lost a step. Despite the layoff, there are very few faults in her resume. Trained by last year’s winning trainer Chad Brown, Rushing Fall is 3 for 3 at Keeneland, all three of which are graded stakes races. She also had a very similar layoff following her 2017 victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at Del Mar, and came back strong going a mile in the grade 2 Appalachian at Keeneland. This is a horse whose only career loss came by the length of her neck in the grade 3 Edgewood at Churchill Downs.

Despite Rushing Fall being considered the heavy favorite, the likely 2nd choice, Rymska(Fr), will come out as possibly the most likely opponent to upend Rushing Fall, as well as looking to join a couple recent Jenny Wiley winners who prepped for this event down in Western Florida. Rymska is coming off a two length score in the Hillsborough Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. The Hillsborough has been won by many successful horses including several Breeders Cup winners. Horses like Zagora, Stephanie’s Kitten and Tepin all captured the Hillsborough and continued on to great seasons. However, it was Tepin in 2016 as well as 2017 winner Dickinson who came from Tampa up through the bluegrass state and took the Jenny Wiley as well. With the question of how Rushing Fall comes back for this race, Rymska and the history of past winners give her the best shot to pull off a victory.

When looking through the rest of the field, there was one other horse that truly caught my eye and at a good price, should run a big race this Saturday. Princess Warrior, a 4-year old filly for trainer Kenny McPeek will be on her 2nd start back off a 3 month layoff that began with a victory in the Latonia at Turfway Park(or the old Latonia Race Course) in early March. This is a horse that has shown the ability to win at the distance in the past and could be getting back into good form at the right time to post a nice upset in the Saturday feature. The winner of last year’s Mrs. Revere at Churchill Downs has had only one race at Keeneland in the past and it came with a 4th place finish to Rushing Fall. However, if this horse continues to progress like I am expecting, she has the potential to flip the script.

My Plays:

$30 to win on 4 - Rymska(Fr)

$15 to win on 3 - Princess Warrior

$5 Ex Key Box - 4/2,3 = $20

$5 Ex Key Box - 3/2,4 = $20

$ 2 Tri Box - 2,3,4 = $12

Total: $97

Final Thoughts:

It is no secret to the racing world the true talent of Rushing Fall. A horse that thrives in the Blue Grass State and has been as consistent as it gets. However, at very short odds and the question of coming back after the long break, the opportunity to knock off a possibly overbet favorite and catch some really good value has come upon us. If a few of the challengers lined up for Saturday’s 10th race come to play, the current queen of Keeneland can be dethroned. 

Side Note:

The last race I wrote for was the Fair Grounds Oaks. I wanted to give a special shout out to the guy sitting a few tables down from me at Sunland Park on that Saturday. With just 3 minutes to post, he told one of his friends sitting next to him who had looked at the race to not worry about it. The exact words were, “unless the jockey falls off, that horse(Serengeti Empress) will not have a problem.” Although I did not have the right winner in Street Band, I appreciated the words of the guy who definitely did not help Serengeti Empress in her quest for the Fair Grounds Oaks and led to a 7th place finish at odds of ⅕. Such overconfidence is often frowned upon by superstitious horseplayers, myself included.

Handicapper's Corner: E.P. Taylor Stakes (G1)

Looking for a Price in E.P. Taylor Stakes

By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers-Off

The E. P. Taylor Stakes was first run in 1956 as the Nettie Handicap, but was renamed in 1981 after Edward Plunket Taylor.  He started in the brewery business, with a brewery he inherited from his grandfather.  After World War II he diversified his holdings into fields such as food, forestry, broadcasting, and advertising through a holding company he formed, Argus Corporation.  When not wearing his business magnate hat, he participated in horse racing.  In the 1930s he began racing thoroughbreds; he and his wife Winifred began breeding them in the 1950s.  

The Taylors' breeding operation, Windfields Farm, is best known for breeding pivotal sire Northern Dancer.  In addition to this race, the turf course at Woodbine is also named after E. P. Taylor.  Taylor himself won this race twice in the days before it was named after him: with Victoria Regina (1961) and Northern Queen (1965).

This year’s edition of the E. P. Taylor drew a field of nine fillies and mares to contest for a purse of $500,000.

This race looks ripe for a price.  Three of the nine in the field hail from the shedrow of formidable turf trainer Chad Brown, but all three like to have a little something to run at -- something they will not get here -- and Pollara has never tried older horses yet.

The lack of pace in the race inspires confidence in the one most likely to hold the cards in a game of catch-me-if-you-can: Sheikha Reika.  Though she tracked the pace going a mile and a quarter last out -- she prompted early leader and short-priced favorite Chain of Daisies, then let her go, then put her away with utmost confidence -- looking back at her earlier form shows an ability to go to the front if no one else does.  Sheikha Reika should be able to outjump the only horse inside her, Sky Full of Stars, and get a comfortable frontrunning spot inside. 

Though she is just three years old, her last three starts have come against older, including that romp last-up in a listed race.  That was her first try at a mile and a quarter, and this lightly-raced filly has the ability and upside to move forward off of that.  The condition of the turf should also be okay, no matter what.  That most recent win came over good going, a strong possibility if the forecast as of Thursday holds, but she has been able to hold her own even over ground with more cut in it, should more rain fall.  Even the rider appeals: not only is it a plus that Andrea Atzeni ships across the ocean to ride her, but Atzeni has ridden at Woodbine before, and finished third in the 2013 Canadian International.  All in all, it's the right day to take a shot with Sheikha Reika.

Starship Jubilee and jockey Luis Contreras united for the 11/1 surprise in the Canadian Stakes, kicking smartly down the lane to mow down the Chad Brown brigade.  (To be fair, it was a different one: New Money Honey and Inflexibility that day, as opposed to Santa Monica, Elysea's World, and Pollara in this race.) 

However, Starship Jubilee is not always as far off the pace as she was in that race -- in fact, she's not typically that far off the pace.  Her more typical style has her stalking just off the pace, sitting a length or two off.   she runs her more typical style, that puts her (and perhaps Sky Full of Stars) sitting closest to Sheikha Reika on the lead.  With a pair of wins leading into the E. P. Taylor, it is safe to say she is in form, and she is the kind of horse who tends to hold her form for a while.  Though this may prove a class test for Starship Jubilee.  The same could be said of the field she faced last out in the Canadian, and she passed that test.  She also has a right to stretch out to a mile and a quarter; she won the Dance Smartly (G2) over the same course and distance last year.  A return to any of Starship Jubilee's best few races makes her a win candidate, particularly if she can reprise her stalking style.

To be fair, this is a Grade 1 race over grass in North America, which makes it difficult not to talk about Chad Brown.  All three are late-running types, making them hard to love at a short price.  But, one of them has some appeal anyway, mainly based on her ability to sit a little closer than her stablemates and run on when the pace dawdles: Santa Monica.   

Santa Monica has already answered the question of whether she likes a mile and a quarter on the sweeping Woodbine turf course, as she won the Dance Smartly (G2) earlier this summer.  She may not get all the way there -- after all, Lady Montdore stole the Glens Falls (G2), with Santa Monica chasing second much of the way.  That could end up unfolding similarly this time.  But, with her consistency and her win over the course, Santa Monica would be no surprise to see in the picture.

Selections:

#4 Sheikha Reika (12/1)

#7 Starship Jubilee (8/1)

#2 Santa Monica (2/1)

Longshot: #6 Summer Luck (20/1) has been all over the place in her career.  She started on the Oaks trail, tried the grass in the middle of her three-year-old year and into the beginning of this year, switched to dirt again for this summer's campaign, and returns to the grass for fall.  Summer Luck's return to turf was a good one, a comfortable length and a half victory at Kentucky Downs. 

This race is a clear step forward from the two-other-than bunch she beat last out, but at a massive price, Summer Luck has several points in her favor.  She should be sharper second off a freshening.  Though she loses jockey Jose Ortiz (who rides morning line favorite Santa Monica for trainer Chad Brown) from that first-up victory, the move to Eurico Rosa Da Silva should be just fine.  Da Silva has been strong with the Casse barn recently, and knows Woodbine well.  Summer Luck has tactical versatility, and if she brings her best, she can hold her own against these foes.  Based on her record, Summer Luck can find her best in this distance category.  All in all, she has a lot more going for her than your average boxcar longshot.

Photos by Nicolle Neulist

Handicapper's Corner: Ladies Turf (G3)

Usual Handicapping Angle won't work in Ladies Turf

By: Jeff Cobb, S. FL. ThoroFan Member

Hello racing fans.  This week brings exciting racing from Kentucky Downs, and I’ll be reviewing the field for the Grade 3 Ladies Turf. The 8 furlong race is for fillies and mares 3 yrs and older.

Truth is, I don't know much about this track or meet except that course is a little eccentric and the meet is short.  Apparently, none of the fillies or mares know much about the course as no entry has raced more than once on the course and of those none has managed to finish in the money.  So much for the horse for course angle. Not that it really matters this time of the year, but no 3 year olds entered the race either.

The hot filly is #1 I'm Betty G winner of her last three.  Betty G is a front running type who figures to set the pace. Betty G is likely to be alone on the lead, if nobody goes with her she could very well wire the field at 7-2 ML odds. Betty G likes the distance, 4-2-1-1, and gets Tyler Gaffalione to guide her. Tyler has been a good bet when riding for Michael Maker with a + ROI in the last 60 days.

#2 Bonnie Arch 12-1 (Chris Landeros, Ian Wilkes) had the privilege of chasing Betty around the track last out flattening out at the end to finish 3^rd.  I don't like betting on horses to turn the tables when racing so close together. If Betty G is healthy then Bonnie Arch can't win in my opinion.

#3 Storm the Hill 4-1 (Julien Leparoux, Philip D'Amato) has a Grade 3 win under her belt. She will need a hot pace to catch Betty and I don't know who will push her. Storm the Hill probably manage to get a piece of the purse and could get there in time with the right pace factors.

#4 Oh So Terrible 15-1 (Carlos Villasana, Bradley Ross, is well, maybe not terrible but seems to be in over her head.

#5 Valladorna 8-1 (Florent Geroux, Mark Casse) is doing something she has never done before, run on grass. Valladorna is a Grade 3 winner at Keeneland, but can she transfer her dirt form to turf. There are many unknown factors, but here are some known facts. 1. Florent Geroux is a very good turf jockey 2. Mark Casse is a good trainer who knows what he's doing 3. Her dam Goldfield has a turf winner to her credit. Valladorna has a lot of gaps in her running line indicating she is a little prone to injury, another reason to try to catch her first of the layoff. I tend to think she will be a good bet here.

#6 Pas de Souci 8-1 (Flavien Prat, Jorge Abreu) has some early foot and could provide the pressure needed on Betty to make a race of it. Pas De Souci is another that has had trouble putting races together, and as I have learned from a noted handicapper that fact that she is running in a fourth race without a break is an indication of her current good health, and we should try to take advantage of that.

#7 Hallie Belle 8-1 (Joe Bravo, Michael Stidham) has shown some good recent form and this race may be a bit of a step down from what she has been up against recently. Generally, I don't like betting on Bravo when he's outside of New Jersey.  I think he makes his money on the shore and gets a little lazy at other tracks. But he rides well for Stidham winning 36% of time for the last 60 days.

#8 In the Lee 5-1 (Jose Ortiz, Claude Shug McGaughey) has a lot going for her winner in 4 of 8 tries and in the money 7 of 8. Ortiz has ridden her to victory twice, so it seems him and filly have a pretty good rapport. She like the distance. She has beaten Pas de Souci twice and finished 4^th behind Betty by a nose at Laurel almost a year ago.  I can forgive that. She's coming in after a little freshening and Shug can get them ready.  I don't think she'd be in here if she wasn't ready.

#9 Insta Erma 6-1 (Drayden Van Dyke, Richard Baltas) hasn't raced since Derby day and seems to have a history of bad health with trouble putting more than two races together. When she's healthy the mare is competitive. I think she must be ready to try again, and this the first race back for a mare that probably has some chronic issues. Also worth a shot.

#10 Dubara 15-1 (Adam Beschizza, Brendan Walsh) had a big speed figure last out in what will be 7 days ago at race time. Looks like a bounce candidate.

Selections:

This is a tight race and there are only two horses I can discount and I'm not sure about her. I have to go with #8 In the Lee for first and take shots in verticals in no particular order #5 Valladorna, #9 Insta Erma, and #3 Storm the Hill

#8 In the Lee

#5 Valladorna

#9 Insta Erma  

#3 Storm the Hill

 

Handicapper's Corner: Beverly D (G1)

Backwheel Daddys Lil Darling in Competitive Beverly D

By: Reinier Macatangay, Setting the Pace

Nine fillies will compete in the Grade 1, $600,000 Beverly D Stakes on Saturday at Arlington Park, and none of them truly stick out. Using TimeformUS, at least six of these runners are capable of posting a number in the low to mid-120s, one is a seemingly misplaced European invader, and the last two are overmatched.

 

Here is the field.

Daddys Lil Darling (8-1) – She is a remarkably consistent filly with seven on-the-board finishes in 10 turf attempts. In the three she missed, she only lost the race by about two lengths or less. While sometimes she gets overbet as a fan favorite, that should not be the case this time. Interesting backwheel candidate.

Nyaleti (15-1) – The lack of Lasix for this European invader is a disappointment. Furthermore, all 13 of her races came at one mile or less, and the Beverly D is run at 1 3/16 miles. She did compete against the talented Alpha Centauri in the Falmouth (G1), although she finished 12 lengths behind. Limit underneath, if it all.

 Sistercharlie (9/5) – Some bettors believe this filly is a single, but her form does not indicate an invincible favorite. In her last start in the Diana Stakes (G1) at Saratoga, she almost lost to the longshot Ultra Brat. Two starts ago, she lost to Fourstar Crook in the New York Stakes (G2). With that said, she must be used.

Dona Bruja (6-1) – This mare’s recent running tactics are a bit strange. She went to the front in both 2018 starts, and while it led to a win in the Endeavour Stakes (G3) at Tampa Bay, it seemed to cost her a placing in the Jenny Wiley (G1). Will she revert back to the closing style that suited her last year? Contender.

Thais (30-1) – On paper, she is severely overmatched. But why would trainer Chad Brown allow her to run in this spot? For a sharp trainer, he is making an odd decision, unless the owners forced him to enter the race. Something to think about.

Oh So Terrible (50-1) – Another overmatched filly. Bradley Ross is an unknown trainer to the wider racing public. Prefer to pass.

Fourstar Crook (9/2) – Consistent seems like a good word to use for many of these fillies. This one sports a 17-11-3-1 record, and a 3-2-1-0 record in 2018. Her one loss came against Sistercharlie in the Jenny Wiley (G1), but she went on to defeat her in the New York Stakes (G2). Chad Brown teams up with Irad Ortiz Jr., and for many, that is a lethal combination. Obviously, she must be considered. 

Inflexibility (8-1) – Nice effort at Woodbine. She led the field through a fast pace, and just got a little tired late when losing to Santa Monica. The runner-up finish in the Beaugay Stakes (G3) after checking on the first turn looks good too. Brown teams up with Joel Rosario this time, and she must be considered.

Athena (3-1) – European invader comes back for more under Aidan O’Brien. She scored a nice win in the Belmont Oaks Invitational (G1) by over two lengths, although the fast pace benefited her. A fast pace is unlikely in this race, but it might not matter. Two starts ago, she ran fourth against Urban Fox in the Pretty Polly (G1) overseas, and third to the impressive Magic Wand in the Ribblesdale (G2) at Royal Ascot. She must find the American competition relieving. Contender.

Conclusion
Unfortunately, the race is not clear. Daddys Lil Darling, Sistercharlie, Dona Bruja, Fourstar Crook, Inflexibility and Athena all have a chance to win.

Handigambling ($100)

There are a lot of contenders here, and no true standout. So, backwheel Daddys Lil Darling.

$4 Trifecta - $80 in all

3,4,7,8,9 / 3,4,7,8,9 / 1

$4 Exacta - $20 in all

3,4,7,8,9 / 1