Handicapper's Corner: Kentucky Turf Cup (G3)

Turf Routers Shine in Kentucky Turf Cup 

By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers-Off

The Kentucky Turf Cup gives a chance for older turf routers to shine.  It will be run for the 27th time this year, and has always covered a mile and a half on the grass.  The race offers a $400,000 purse, or $750,000 for Kentucky-bred horses.  (Only Some In Tieme, who was bred in Brazil, is ineligible for the higher purse).
 

The race drew an overflow field of sixteen, including last year's winner Oscar Nominated.  Between Oscar Nominated and 2015-2016 winner Da Big Hoss trainer Mike Maker has won the last three editions of the Kentucky Turf Cup, and empties the shedrow for this year's addition.  In addition to last year's champion Maker also conditions Bronson, Bigger Picture, and Soglio in the main field, and Markitoff two deep on the also-eligible list. 

The weather through the week calls for rain, suggesting that not only is affinity for Kentucky Downs a plus factor, but so is the ability to run over ground with some give.

Oscar Nominated won last year, and may prove tough to beat once again given his form and his tactical versatility.  He hails from the barn of consistent turf stayer trainer Mike Maker, and his own form at a mile and a half has been strong: in five starts at the distance, he has two wins and three second-place finishes.  One of those wins came in this race last year.  One of those second-place finishes came over soft ground; he ran second behind Bullard’s Alley’s freakish effort last year’s Canadian International, run over soft going.  His form over the Kentucky Downs oval is beyond reproach, as well; Oscar Nominated has started twice there, and has a Kentucky Turf Cup win and a Dueling Grounds Derby score to his name.  He will likely go off the favorite, but the race looks tailor-made for him.

Big Bend is unproven in a bog, but otherwise has a lot going for him.  He went gate-to-wire in last year’s Dueling Grounds Derby, and now returns to the site of that triumph.  There isn’t a whole lot of early gas in this race, making it possible that he could get that sort of trip again.  But?  Even though that was a frontrunning score, he does not have to be on the front end to succeed.  Big Bend proved that next out in the Sycamore (G3) at Keeneland, where he rallied from off the pace to win.  That race, in addition to an allowance victory last year, also proves he has twelve-furlong stamina.  The connections also bode well for Big Bend.  Tom Proctor is choosy and successful with his Kentucky Downs shippers.  And rider Drayden Van Dyke is both one of the hottest riders in the country, and adept at riding Kentucky Downs when he ships out there.  He also has rapport with Big Bend already; he rode the son of Union Rags in both the Dueling Grounds Derby and the Sycamore.

Patterson Cross needs a defection from the main field in order to draw in, but if he gets a single scratch in front of him, he can win.  Patterson Cross is a closer who matches well on speed with these foes, and reliably fires a smart closing rally.  He also has proven mile and a half stamina.  Though he has yet to win at the distance, he has frequently finished in the frame, including finishing third beaten only a neck by Sadler’s Joy in the Pan American (G2) last year.  Patterson Cross is fit; he actually cuts back from the thirteen-furlong John’s Call Stakes at the Spa last out, in which he finished beaten only a length after a tough trip late. He needs a bit of luck to draw in, but if he does, don’t let him sneak off the also-eligibles unnoticed.

Selections:

#6 Oscar Nominated (7/2)

#12 Big Bend (10/1)

#13 Patterson Cross (12/1)

Longshot:  Between the rain in the forecast and the generally good record of closers in route races at Kentucky Downs, #11 My Bariley (20/1) should have plenty of say down the lane.  Though he was off the board in his only start at Kentucky Downs, toss it with confidence: the race was his juvenile debut, and it was a sprint. Sprints over the course tend to favor speed, and beyond that, My Bariley is a proven late runner.  He also thrives in a bog; it rained all week leading up to his sharp late-running victory in the Hawthorne Derby last year.

Handicapper's Corner: Ladies Turf (G3)

Usual Handicapping Angle won't work in Ladies Turf

By: Jeff Cobb, S. FL. ThoroFan Member

Hello racing fans.  This week brings exciting racing from Kentucky Downs, and I’ll be reviewing the field for the Grade 3 Ladies Turf. The 8 furlong race is for fillies and mares 3 yrs and older.

Truth is, I don't know much about this track or meet except that course is a little eccentric and the meet is short.  Apparently, none of the fillies or mares know much about the course as no entry has raced more than once on the course and of those none has managed to finish in the money.  So much for the horse for course angle. Not that it really matters this time of the year, but no 3 year olds entered the race either.

The hot filly is #1 I'm Betty G winner of her last three.  Betty G is a front running type who figures to set the pace. Betty G is likely to be alone on the lead, if nobody goes with her she could very well wire the field at 7-2 ML odds. Betty G likes the distance, 4-2-1-1, and gets Tyler Gaffalione to guide her. Tyler has been a good bet when riding for Michael Maker with a + ROI in the last 60 days.

#2 Bonnie Arch 12-1 (Chris Landeros, Ian Wilkes) had the privilege of chasing Betty around the track last out flattening out at the end to finish 3^rd.  I don't like betting on horses to turn the tables when racing so close together. If Betty G is healthy then Bonnie Arch can't win in my opinion.

#3 Storm the Hill 4-1 (Julien Leparoux, Philip D'Amato) has a Grade 3 win under her belt. She will need a hot pace to catch Betty and I don't know who will push her. Storm the Hill probably manage to get a piece of the purse and could get there in time with the right pace factors.

#4 Oh So Terrible 15-1 (Carlos Villasana, Bradley Ross, is well, maybe not terrible but seems to be in over her head.

#5 Valladorna 8-1 (Florent Geroux, Mark Casse) is doing something she has never done before, run on grass. Valladorna is a Grade 3 winner at Keeneland, but can she transfer her dirt form to turf. There are many unknown factors, but here are some known facts. 1. Florent Geroux is a very good turf jockey 2. Mark Casse is a good trainer who knows what he's doing 3. Her dam Goldfield has a turf winner to her credit. Valladorna has a lot of gaps in her running line indicating she is a little prone to injury, another reason to try to catch her first of the layoff. I tend to think she will be a good bet here.

#6 Pas de Souci 8-1 (Flavien Prat, Jorge Abreu) has some early foot and could provide the pressure needed on Betty to make a race of it. Pas De Souci is another that has had trouble putting races together, and as I have learned from a noted handicapper that fact that she is running in a fourth race without a break is an indication of her current good health, and we should try to take advantage of that.

#7 Hallie Belle 8-1 (Joe Bravo, Michael Stidham) has shown some good recent form and this race may be a bit of a step down from what she has been up against recently. Generally, I don't like betting on Bravo when he's outside of New Jersey.  I think he makes his money on the shore and gets a little lazy at other tracks. But he rides well for Stidham winning 36% of time for the last 60 days.

#8 In the Lee 5-1 (Jose Ortiz, Claude Shug McGaughey) has a lot going for her winner in 4 of 8 tries and in the money 7 of 8. Ortiz has ridden her to victory twice, so it seems him and filly have a pretty good rapport. She like the distance. She has beaten Pas de Souci twice and finished 4^th behind Betty by a nose at Laurel almost a year ago.  I can forgive that. She's coming in after a little freshening and Shug can get them ready.  I don't think she'd be in here if she wasn't ready.

#9 Insta Erma 6-1 (Drayden Van Dyke, Richard Baltas) hasn't raced since Derby day and seems to have a history of bad health with trouble putting more than two races together. When she's healthy the mare is competitive. I think she must be ready to try again, and this the first race back for a mare that probably has some chronic issues. Also worth a shot.

#10 Dubara 15-1 (Adam Beschizza, Brendan Walsh) had a big speed figure last out in what will be 7 days ago at race time. Looks like a bounce candidate.

Selections:

This is a tight race and there are only two horses I can discount and I'm not sure about her. I have to go with #8 In the Lee for first and take shots in verticals in no particular order #5 Valladorna, #9 Insta Erma, and #3 Storm the Hill

#8 In the Lee

#5 Valladorna

#9 Insta Erma  

#3 Storm the Hill