Handicapper's Corner: Ladies Turf (G3)

Usual Handicapping Angle won't work in Ladies Turf

By: Jeff Cobb, S. FL. ThoroFan Member

Hello racing fans.  This week brings exciting racing from Kentucky Downs, and I’ll be reviewing the field for the Grade 3 Ladies Turf. The 8 furlong race is for fillies and mares 3 yrs and older.

Truth is, I don't know much about this track or meet except that course is a little eccentric and the meet is short.  Apparently, none of the fillies or mares know much about the course as no entry has raced more than once on the course and of those none has managed to finish in the money.  So much for the horse for course angle. Not that it really matters this time of the year, but no 3 year olds entered the race either.

The hot filly is #1 I'm Betty G winner of her last three.  Betty G is a front running type who figures to set the pace. Betty G is likely to be alone on the lead, if nobody goes with her she could very well wire the field at 7-2 ML odds. Betty G likes the distance, 4-2-1-1, and gets Tyler Gaffalione to guide her. Tyler has been a good bet when riding for Michael Maker with a + ROI in the last 60 days.

#2 Bonnie Arch 12-1 (Chris Landeros, Ian Wilkes) had the privilege of chasing Betty around the track last out flattening out at the end to finish 3^rd.  I don't like betting on horses to turn the tables when racing so close together. If Betty G is healthy then Bonnie Arch can't win in my opinion.

#3 Storm the Hill 4-1 (Julien Leparoux, Philip D'Amato) has a Grade 3 win under her belt. She will need a hot pace to catch Betty and I don't know who will push her. Storm the Hill probably manage to get a piece of the purse and could get there in time with the right pace factors.

#4 Oh So Terrible 15-1 (Carlos Villasana, Bradley Ross, is well, maybe not terrible but seems to be in over her head.

#5 Valladorna 8-1 (Florent Geroux, Mark Casse) is doing something she has never done before, run on grass. Valladorna is a Grade 3 winner at Keeneland, but can she transfer her dirt form to turf. There are many unknown factors, but here are some known facts. 1. Florent Geroux is a very good turf jockey 2. Mark Casse is a good trainer who knows what he's doing 3. Her dam Goldfield has a turf winner to her credit. Valladorna has a lot of gaps in her running line indicating she is a little prone to injury, another reason to try to catch her first of the layoff. I tend to think she will be a good bet here.

#6 Pas de Souci 8-1 (Flavien Prat, Jorge Abreu) has some early foot and could provide the pressure needed on Betty to make a race of it. Pas De Souci is another that has had trouble putting races together, and as I have learned from a noted handicapper that fact that she is running in a fourth race without a break is an indication of her current good health, and we should try to take advantage of that.

#7 Hallie Belle 8-1 (Joe Bravo, Michael Stidham) has shown some good recent form and this race may be a bit of a step down from what she has been up against recently. Generally, I don't like betting on Bravo when he's outside of New Jersey.  I think he makes his money on the shore and gets a little lazy at other tracks. But he rides well for Stidham winning 36% of time for the last 60 days.

#8 In the Lee 5-1 (Jose Ortiz, Claude Shug McGaughey) has a lot going for her winner in 4 of 8 tries and in the money 7 of 8. Ortiz has ridden her to victory twice, so it seems him and filly have a pretty good rapport. She like the distance. She has beaten Pas de Souci twice and finished 4^th behind Betty by a nose at Laurel almost a year ago.  I can forgive that. She's coming in after a little freshening and Shug can get them ready.  I don't think she'd be in here if she wasn't ready.

#9 Insta Erma 6-1 (Drayden Van Dyke, Richard Baltas) hasn't raced since Derby day and seems to have a history of bad health with trouble putting more than two races together. When she's healthy the mare is competitive. I think she must be ready to try again, and this the first race back for a mare that probably has some chronic issues. Also worth a shot.

#10 Dubara 15-1 (Adam Beschizza, Brendan Walsh) had a big speed figure last out in what will be 7 days ago at race time. Looks like a bounce candidate.

Selections:

This is a tight race and there are only two horses I can discount and I'm not sure about her. I have to go with #8 In the Lee for first and take shots in verticals in no particular order #5 Valladorna, #9 Insta Erma, and #3 Storm the Hill

#8 In the Lee

#5 Valladorna

#9 Insta Erma  

#3 Storm the Hill