Speed, Pace and Possibilities in Pennsylvania Derby
By: John Caro, S. FL. ThoroFan Member
#1 – First Mondays – (Servis/Pennington) – This Curlin baby was recently third in the Smarty Jones G3 over this track beaten four lengths by Axelrod going shorter. Pennington is a top jockey at PARX and Servis is firing on all cylinders, 28% here and what a great time he had at Saratoga. Did not race as a two year old and although he has a good record in his three starts he’s not in my focus.
#2 – Hofburg – (Mott/Ortiz, Jr. I) – Winner of the Curlin S. in late
July in the slop against a small field. Adds blinkers and a look through the
running lines at his ITM finishes/wins have come when he’s somewhere back early
and accelerates around the field 3 to 5 wide. Although his odds are low (and
likely lower given Ortiz’s numbers) his stalwart efforts in the Belmont and
Florida Derby and his recent win testify to his ability to contend for the win.
#3 – Instilled Regard – (Brown/Ortiz,
JL) – Last out was in
the Kentucky Derby finishing fourth from way back and was held up in traffic in
the stretch but managed to get to within 2 of Good Magic and 4 from Justify.
Trainer change to Brown was made after the derby and Brown has had him out for
some sneaky good 5f works since. Brown’s stats speak volumes to his ability to
bring an animal back into the money and I believe we have a viable longshot to
consider in any exotic. Win contender? Unlikely but hey, the sibling rivalry
continues.
#4 – King Zachary – (Romans/Lanerie) – Was forth in the Travers by a 6
length margin having started last but closed though the stretch. His best
efforts have been when he's mid-pack or better. Will they send him closer to
the lead and track his stable mate, Mr. Freeze? Could be a Roman’s plan and Lanerie
is every bit capable of doing that. Bris power rating has him 3rd
which I find very interesting for a 20-1 ML entry. He's another longshot play
in exotics.
#5 – Core Beliefs – (Eurton/Talamo) - Never out of the money until his
last race when well back to finish forth in the Travers with a bobbled start.
But he has had a fine record getting here and won the Ohio Derby with Talamo up
in a driving finish over Lone Sailor. He has been taking a break for about 55
days with what appears to be the same work tab (with 6f works) prior to his
second in the Peter Pan after a stumbled start while tracking a good pace. His
record of trouble in three of his starts is a concern but, if he gets off well
he may have something to say about the pace and the outcome. He run against
this year's best and rated well with others in this field. Great value exotics
player.
#6 – Axelrod – (McCarthy/Bravo) – Great speed improvement since May.
Won the Indiana Derby coming off the pace and his recent win in the Smarty
Jones here from mid-pack (and Bravo up) shows his versatility. Works are good
and speed improvement is expected to continue. He may be a win contender here
at a fair value and may well be overlooked because of others.
#7 – Mr. Freeze – (Romans/Albarado) – Won the WV Derby in his last out
and watching the video says a lot about his hutzpah going eye to eye with his
previous vival, High North, in the Iowa Derby and Albarado’s determination and
brief encouragement down the stretch. Highest last speed and can take a
challenge. The breeding suits and the works are better than previous workouts.
Great record. I like this one for a value win.
#8 - McKenzie – (Baffert/Smith) – What can I say about a colt who was
#2 in Baffert’s barn last fall, wins three of four (technically 4 for 4 via DQ)
and Big Money up for the ride? His work tab is steady with longer runs since
August, but this is Baffert’s way. The value is awful but can't leave him off
the ticket. Winner? Not wishing bad things though I’d like to see better value
on top.
#9 – Trigger Warning – (Rone/Rosendo) – Last out was a big class test that
failed in the Travers. The two prior races in the Ohio and Indiana Derbies were
pretty handy. He will likely be a pace factor early if he gets out but I don’t
see him in the closing stages of the race. Gets a weight break and goes without
googles for this one. Bottom of a Super, maybe.
#10 – Bravazo – (Lukas/Saez) – The only guy who has run all the
big Grade I’s this year and Likes second or third a lot. His best was the
Preakness. Long hard campaign and I admire his efforts but, I think it is
taking its toll. I like him as part of any ticket as he does run on but I
suggest he is worn down, not worn out. Worn down after winning $1.1. He has to
be included in the exotics but I don’t see our Calumet ‘Farm Boy’ winning.
As I said
earlier, there are some contenders in this one that have the experience and
ability to make this a very competitive race. If I’m going to wager I’m going
to do so with the mindset that says “I need value in my picks and hope they can
hook up with other value horses.
Handi-gambling Menu – boy I like that phrase and whoever
came up with it has nailed what it really is. Thanks. I hate to take away from
your ability to decide who is best for you so the menu is provided to offer
some choices.
But I Love a
good exacta always:
$2 Exacta Key - All with 3, 4, 7 - $54
Note: You
could leave the 1 & 9 off the top of the above exacta: cost $42 and then
play a second exacta as well.
$1 Exacta Key – 7 with All cost: $9
Total using
both Exactas is $51
Win ‘Dutch’ Bets: $16 Win on the #7 with $13 Win on the 3 & 4 cost: $42 - at current odds the payout is about $170
Total cost for all the above is $96 if you play the 1st Exacta and the win bets and $93 if you play the 2nd two Exactas and the win bets.
_________________________________________________________________________
Trifecta betting: If this is the way you like to bet then wheel your best pick into a trifecta after eliminating a couple of runners and stack some longshots in your play.
Mine best value pick is the #7 so is the example below. I would play the #7 as above and below ALL in my Exacta for $18. In the Trifecta I put him in all three money positions (as you would in WPS bets) and carry over the other longshots (value plays) in the last tri key. Value horses are in Bold. ML favorites in Green.
Example:
$1 Tri Key - 7 with 2 3 6 with 2 3 4 5
6 8 10 - $18
$1.50 Tri Key
- 2
3 6 with 7 with 2 3 4 5 6 8 10 - $27
$.50 Tri Key 2 3 6 8 10
with 2
3 4 5 6 8 10
with 3 4 7 - $37.50
Total cost
for the above Tri Key bets and the Exactas 7 with ALL & ALL with 7 is
$100.50
No comments:
Post a Comment