Handicapper's Corner: Pennsylvania Derby (G1)

Speed, Pace and Possibilities in Pennsylvania Derby

By: John Caro, S. FL. ThoroFan Member

Weather is forecast to be ideal for this contest for three year olds going one and an eighth. And the field is an experienced lot who have been involved in triple-crown races, mid-summer derbies and state derbies across the land. Frankly there is a lot of class in this race. I propose that a close look at the contenders reveals some good value in this race from a pure betting standpoint. Lots of speed, lots of pace, lots of possibilities.

#1 – First Mondays – (Servis/Pennington) – This Curlin baby was recently third in the Smarty Jones G3 over this track beaten four lengths by Axelrod going shorter. Pennington is a top jockey at PARX and Servis is firing on all cylinders, 28% here and what a great time he had at Saratoga. Did not race as a two year old and although he has a good record in his three starts he’s not in my focus.

#2 – Hofburg – (Mott/Ortiz, Jr. I) – Winner of the Curlin S. in late July in the slop against a small field. Adds blinkers and a look through the running lines at his ITM finishes/wins have come when he’s somewhere back early and accelerates around the field 3 to 5 wide. Although his odds are low (and likely lower given Ortiz’s numbers) his stalwart efforts in the Belmont and Florida Derby and his recent win testify to his ability to contend for the win. 

#3 – Instilled Regard – (Brown/Ortiz, JL) – Last out was in the Kentucky Derby finishing fourth from way back and was held up in traffic in the stretch but managed to get to within 2 of Good Magic and 4 from Justify. Trainer change to Brown was made after the derby and Brown has had him out for some sneaky good 5f works since. Brown’s stats speak volumes to his ability to bring an animal back into the money and I believe we have a viable longshot to consider in any exotic. Win contender? Unlikely but hey, the sibling rivalry continues.

#4 – King Zachary – (Romans/Lanerie) – Was forth in the Travers by a 6 length margin having started last but closed though the stretch. His best efforts have been when he's mid-pack or better. Will they send him closer to the lead and track his stable mate, Mr. Freeze? Could be a Roman’s plan and Lanerie is every bit capable of doing that. Bris power rating has him 3^rd which I find very interesting for a 20-1 ML entry. He's another longshot play in exotics.

#5 – Core Beliefs – (Eurton/Talamo) - Never out of the money until his last race when well back to finish forth in the Travers with a bobbled start. But he has had a fine record getting here and won the Ohio Derby with Talamo up in a driving finish over Lone Sailor. He has been taking a break for about 55 days with what appears to be the same work tab (with 6f works) prior to his second in the Peter Pan after a stumbled start while tracking a good pace. His record of trouble in three of his starts is a concern but, if he gets off well he may have something to say about the pace and the outcome. He run against this year's best and rated well with others in this field. Great value exotics player.

#6 – Axelrod – (McCarthy/Bravo) – Great speed improvement since May. Won the Indiana Derby coming off the pace and his recent win in the Smarty Jones here from mid-pack (and Bravo up) shows his versatility. Works are good and speed improvement is expected to continue. He may be a win contender here at a fair value and may well be overlooked because of others.

#7 – Mr. Freeze – (Romans/Albarado) – Won the WV Derby in his last out and watching the video says a lot about his hutzpah going eye to eye with his previous vival, High North, in the Iowa Derby and Albarado’s determination and brief encouragement down the stretch. Highest last speed and can take a challenge. The breeding suits and the works are better than previous workouts. Great record. I like this one for a value win. 

#8 - McKenzie – (Baffert/Smith) – What can I say about a colt who was #2 in Baffert’s barn last fall, wins three of four (technically 4 for 4 via DQ) and Big Money up for the ride? His work tab is steady with longer runs since August, but this is Baffert’s way. The value is awful but can't leave him off the ticket. Winner? Not wishing bad things though I’d like to see better value on top.

#9 – Trigger Warning – (Rone/Rosendo) – Last out was a big class test that failed in the Travers. The two prior races in the Ohio and Indiana Derbies were pretty handy. He will likely be a pace factor early if he gets out but I don’t see him in the closing stages of the race. Gets a weight break and goes without googles for this one. Bottom of a Super, maybe.

#10 – Bravazo – (Lukas/Saez) – The only guy who has run all the big Grade I’s this year and Likes second or third a lot. His best was the Preakness. Long hard campaign and I admire his efforts but, I think it is taking its toll. I like him as part of any ticket as he does run on but I suggest he is worn down, not worn out. Worn down after winning $1.1. He has to be included in the exotics but I don’t see our Calumet ‘Farm Boy’ winning.

As I said earlier, there are some contenders in this one that have the experience and ability to make this a very competitive race. If I’m going to wager I’m going to do so with the mindset that says “I need value in my picks and hope they can hook up with other value horses.

Handi-gambling Menu – boy I like that phrase and whoever came up with it has nailed what it really is. Thanks. I hate to take away from your ability to decide who is best for you so the menu is provided to offer some choices.

But I Love a good exacta always:

$2 Exacta Key - All with 3, 4, 7 - $54        

Note: You could leave the 1 & 9 off the top of the above exacta: cost $42 and then play a second exacta as well.

$1 Exacta Key – 7 with All     cost: $9

Total using both Exactas is $51

Win ‘Dutch’ Bets: $16 Win on the #7 with $13 Win on the 3 & 4   cost: $42 - at current odds the payout is about $170

Total cost for all the above is $96 if you play the 1^st Exacta and the win bets and $93 if you play the 2^nd two Exactas and the win bets.

_________________________________________________________________________

Trifecta betting: If this is the way you like to bet then wheel your best pick into a trifecta after eliminating a couple of runners and stack some longshots in your play. 

Mine best value pick is the #7 so is the example below. I would play the #7 as above and below ALL in my Exacta for $18. In the Trifecta I put him in all three money positions (as you would in WPS bets) and carry over the other longshots (value plays) in the last tri key. Value horses are in Bold. ML favorites in Green.

Example:

$1 Tri Key - 7 with 2 3 6 with 2 3 4 5 6 8 10 - $18

$1.50 Tri Key - 2 3 6 with 7 with 2 3 4 5 6 8 10 - $27

$.50 Tri Key 2 3 6 8 10 with 2 3 4 5 6 8 10 with 3 4 7 - $37.50 

Total cost for the above Tri Key bets and the Exactas 7 with ALL & ALL with 7 is $100.50

 

Handicapper's Corner: Indiana Derby (G3)

Title Ready might break through in Indiana Derby

By: Reinier Macatangay, Setting the Pace

Midwest Derby season is in full swing on Saturday, as the Indiana Derby (G3) will be run once again at Indiana Grand. Nine horses will go 1 1/16 miles around the main track, and at least four of them hold a good chance to win.

Whoever comes home first will take the winner’s share of a $500,000 purse.

The morning line is a little odd, and possibly inaccurate. Nevertheless, the analysis of each horse below will be written with those odds in mind.

1) Trigger Warning (8-1) – Odd horse. He spent a lot of time at Turf Paradise and Sunland Park without really accomplishing much. The connections decided to throw in a trip to Fair Grounds for the Lecomte Stakes (G3) in between, and he lost by 76 lengths. But after the last trainer switch, he posted a solid third in the Ohio Derby (G3), earning a 123 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the process. Contender.

2) Blame the Rider (6-1) – Turf horse looks like a turf horse. The pedigree signals both surfaces are fine, but in three starts on turf he never finished worse than second. On dirt, his best finish is a third place in a Santa Anita maiden race.

3) Givemeaminit (20-1) – Despite finishing sixth in the Woody Stephens (G2) around one turn, this runner’s future is in sprint races. He made up significant ground in the stretch in that loss, and fades every time he tries to route. While he could do enough to complete the trifecta in this spot, the distance is too long.

4) Dark Vader (8-1) – Love the name. As for the actual form, this Ohio-bred colt is consistent without being overly fast. He just finished third in the ungraded Easy Goer Stakes at Belmont Park against Rugbyman and Prince Lucky. The former runner is promising, although has not proven his class yet. Dark Vader earned a career best 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the effort. He is eligible to move forward again in this spot and win. But there is nothing to get too excited about.

5) The Money Dance (20-1) – This horse is too slow on numbers to win. If he runs his absolute best race though, maybe he can complete the trifecta or superfecta.

6) Axelrod (6-1) – Nice effort to finish second in the Affirmed Stakes (G3). He even finished in front of Solomini, which may not be such an accomplishment. TimeformUS awarded a low 106, and his other numbers are not great.

7) Title Ready (12-1) – Wow, a grandson of Personal Ensign. That is quite the pedigree. For those who do not know, Personal Ensign is a legend who completed her career undefeated in 1988 by defeating the Kentucky Derby winner Winning Colors in a dramatic stretch drive. As for Title Ready, he is improving and ran a credible fourth in the Ohio Derby, earning a 122 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He needs to repeat that number at a minimum to score in this spot. Expect him to lay around third or fourth and get first run. He can make the trifecta interesting.

 

8) King Zachary (6/5) – His morning line is low. Very low. This horse only owns one fast race, when he picked up a nearly five-length victory in the Matt Winn (G3) over such horses as Tiz Mischief and the promising Ax Man. Before the Matt Winn, King Zachary barely won an allowance by a half length at Churchill Downs, and lost by over 13 lengths in the Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct. But if he repeats the Matt Win effort, then he probably wins in this spot. It is just hard to trust him alone.

9) Funny Duck (10-1) – He sure looks like a horse who loved slop when he won the Pat Day Mile (G3). Once he reverted back to fast dirt in the Matt Winn, he finished fourth and lost by 13 lengths, in a six-horse field. The 119 TimeformUS Speed Figure from the Pat Day win is good. Can he duplicate it on fast dirt though? It is nice to see Seattle Slew as the damsire, and maybe the Matt Winn was an off race.

Handigambling ($100)

$50 Win/Place - #7 Title Ready (12-1)

(To be clear though, King Zachary, Trigger Warning and Dark Vader can win too.)

 

Handicapper's Corner: Pacific Classic (G1)

Pacific Classic "A" Game 

Michael Mills, ThoroFan Member

 

The 27th running of the Pacific Classic presents good news and bad news.

The Good News

We excel in big races at finding that little something that leads us elsewhere at a price where on paper there appears to be one short priced standout.

The Bad News 

The little something is still hiding somewhere.

Observations:

Accelerate is 2 for 2 finishing ahead of Arrogate (mind you with a 9 pound weight allowance in the most recent meeting), and 3 for 3 running at Del Mar.

Several in here will not enjoy the mile and one quarter distance.

Royal Albert Hall, Sorry Erik, Donworth, and Curlin Road are all running for 4th place.

The Play:

Questions abound on what happened to Arrogate in the San Diego.  Did the trip to Dubai take too much out of him?  He just can't beat Accelerate?  The silver haired one didn't have him fully load for what should have been a walk in the park?  We will never really know those answers. 

Experience tells us we will see a much better performance out of Arrogate on Saturday, but at what price.  If he stays anywhere around the even money he is listed on the morning line he is the right investment.  With that said, also using him in the exacta with the older guy Hard Aces.

$60 Win Arrogate

$20 Ex Box Arrogate and Hard Aces

Have A Day...........Mike Mills  

Handicapper's Corner: Whitney Stakes (G1)

Gun Runner vs. Five Rivals in Whitney Stakes

By: Jeffrey Cobb, S. FL ThoroFan Member

It must be Summer, they're racing at Saratoga! For this edition I get to bring my analysis of the Whitney Stakes (G1). The race is 9 furlongs.  The dirt track at Saratoga has been favoring early speed and early pressers but, with the correct pace scenario, a closer can get up in time.  Six of the seven entries are early types.  This will be a major clue to solving this puzzle.  We'll have to watch the earlier dirt races and see how the track is playing Saturday.

Here is the field.  Post position one gets War Story (1) trained by the slimy Jorge Navarro and ridden by Hall of Famer Javier Castellano. In fairness to the gelding, War Story got good last year before winding up in Navarro's barn and has maintained good, consistent form so far through 2017. Castellano has had 32 starts for Navarro winning at an impressive 38% clip with a dazzling $3.01 ROI.  Trainer/jockey stats alone make War Story an attractive proposition at the M/L price of 6 to 1.  Adding to the formula, War Story is a capable gelding with an early presser run style and the tactical run style that Castellano  excels with.  Hard to go wrong with Castellano here, but there are others to consider.

The #2 Breaking Lucky is trained by Baker Reade and Luis Contreras makes the trip down from Canada for the ride. Breaking Lucky is a $1,000,000 winner off of only 3 wins, so the 5 year old horse has managed to win some big races. None of those big races have come in 2017.  Last time out, Breaking Lucky finished 8-1/4 lengths behind ML fave Gun Runner. Generally, Breaking Lucky is not fast enough to win this race, but his best Thorograph figure did come at Saratoga last September.  If he can duplicate that effort, I thinks he gets a money finish.

#3 Cautious Giant trained by Anthony Quartarolo and ridden by Jose Bracho.  Who?  Next!

#4  Tu Brutus is trained by Gary Contessa and ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr. Tu Brutus is a Chilean import and kind of the opposite of Breaking Lucky in that he has won 9 times but only earned a little over 200K.  This is typical for horses from South America and why I tend to dismiss them. However, Tu Brutus has posted some good efforts at Aqueduct and Belmont. Last out, he lost to War Story at 12 furlongs and his Thorograph figure dropped noticeably from his previous.  I think maybe a mile and a half is a little too far for the Brute.  He's had some time off and is cutting back to a more standard distance.  Irad Ortiz has become a top New York rider.  Tu Brutus has races fast enough to win here, but this is a big step up in class.  He hasn't locked horns on the lead with the likes of Gun Runner yet.  We'll see if he's up to the test.

#5 Keen Ice is trained by Todd Pletcher and Jose Ortiz gets the call.  Keen Ice is a one run type who will come on late, if at all, and will benefit from the anticipated fast pace. Keen Ice was quiet in 2016 but showed signs of life last out winning the Grade 2 Suburban at Belmont.  In 6 tries, Keen Ice has never won at this distance leading me to not care for him so much.  On the other hand, he did win at Saratoga once.  3 to 1 is a little too short for a runner without a win at the distance.  In the money, sure.

The 4/5 morning fave is #6 Gun Runner. Steve Asmussen and Florent Geroux team up again on the speedster.  Gun Runner does his best running on the front.  He does not do as well as a stalker.  It's always tough to predict how jockeys are going to approach a race.  They read the racing form too.  In this case, I think Florent will go to the lead and try to win in wire to wire fashion.  Tu Brutus may try to go with him, I think he has to, but Gun Runner has proven his class.  One of the few runners I remember who has run a better Thorograph figure first race back from Meyden than he ran at Meyden as he did winning the Grade 1 Stephen Foster last out by 7 lengths.  The one to beat.

#7 Discreet Lover has no chance and I wonder why he is even considered for this race.

Bottom line:

I've done pretty good finding prices so far this year, but I really don't want to blow smoke up your...uhh chimney. If you must try to beat Gun Runner, I would try to do it with War Story. 

I think the race will set up for him if he's good enough to take it. War Story would be my value play, but I don't see anybody beating Gun Runner here. 

Single Gun Runner in a pick 4 and hope for some long shots (of course you have to have them on your ticket) in the other legs. Then bet War Story to win in the Whitney.  If I'm right you'll miss the pick 4, but pay for it with the Whitney. 

Good Luck!