Handicapper's Corner: Vosburgh Stakes (G1)

A Hint of Speed in the Vosburgh Stakes

By: The Turk

 

Imperial Hint- Photo Breeders' Cup website/Gulfstream Park

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, which just days ago celebrated 10 years of handicapping and bet construction. 

I'd like to thank the good people of The Thorofan and The Thorofan Handicappers Corner for allowing me the opportunity to share my thoughts  with their readers.





 Today's effort is The Vosburgh, a 6f Grade 1 on the dirt at Belmont Park. Pictured is Imperial Hint. 

Readers of The Turk know I have a general disdain for morning lines and I usually avoid most racing news articles in advance of handicapping.  Why?  I find that sort of information can bias my thoughts and I try to avoid preconceived notions and confirmation bias.  I print my past performances without the Morning Lines, I build my Fair Line Odds and only then do I look at the Morning Lines. 

I had a feeling when I looked at the past performances that Imperial Hint would be a big Morning Line, and 1-5 didn't really surprise me.  Not only is the 5 YO son of Imperialism a truly dominant sprinter, this field is pretty unspectacular.  the remaining six horses in this field, in their last two races each or over 12 races we have:

• 1 Graded Stake:  Mr Crow who also raced (4th - 8 1/4 back) in the Vanderbilt G1 with Imperial Hint.
• 4 Claiming Races $32-$50
• 3 Optional Claimers$35-$80K
• 1 $25K Allowance
• 3 $97 Stakes

Imperial Hint has $1.2 MM in career earnings and the rest of the field $1.4 MM.
 

While I have no preconceived notion of the handicap, I do have an early idea of my bet construction plan when I see this sort of pattern forming with a heavy chalk and an unheralded field.  I'm thinking low risk exactas with Imperial Hint on top and two or three of the longest prices entering the gate in Place for now more than $6 bucks or so OR 3 or 4 of the mid sized prices over Imperial Hint for no more that $8 bucks.  

Let's get after this!

Let's start with the whale, Imperial Hint.

Vanderbilt G1: 6f on good dirt.  A complete handride by Castellano.  Dominance.  

The True North G2: 6 1/2 f on Fast Dirt.  

Imperial Hint is training exceptionally well;  six straight bullet workouts with lots of company(19,10,26,18,61,43).  8 of last ten races 100+ Beyer.  7 Wins in 10 starts at the distance.  Only finish out of the money in 2018 was on the slop at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby Day.

The Churchill Downs Grade 2: 7f on sealed slop.

   

Silver Ride has always been a bit of a tease but its hard to believe, the gelded son of Candy Ride (Arg) is 6 YO.  9 of 16 Lifetime in the money over fast dirt with 429 Tomlinson on Wet Dirt and 408 Tomlinson at the distance but only 1 win in 7 tries at 6f.  Adding 4 pounds from last effort,  

The Tale of the Cat $97K at Saratoga at 6f on fast dirt.

 Paceless, 5 horse field that included Mr. Crow in his last off effort. Trainer Lynch is a 23% Grade Stakes winner and a 7% winner only at Belmont over current meet.  He is a 33% winner at Belmont coupled with J. Ortiz, up. Eh.  

Still Krz comes in off a $32,000 claimer.  He's been claimed three times in past year.  6 YO gelding has 6 wins in 20 starts at the distance and 11 Win-Place efforts in 19 Fast Dirt Starts.  Ontario bred. Big Timeform early pace fig of 129.  Will/can he carry?  

Mr. Crow finished 13 1/2 lengths up the track back of the winner in last years edition of this race.  Since that effort, he was claimed for $62K and has one win in last five efforts.  His running lines:  "...last away...weakened....bobbled...no match..."  Adds 4 pounds from Tale of the Cat.  Last two races J. Ortiz was up but he jumps to Silver Ride, and Saez, who's piloted Silver Ride's last two races is up on Mr. Crow for Conditioner Ben Colebrook.

Forge and Manical should be rolling early and I suspect Imperial Hint will set up off their flanks pressing their pace.  Forge is 0 of 3 starts at Belmont but 6 of 7 in the money at the distance and 7 of 11 in the money on fast dirt.  Manical goes for Wesley Ward with J. Velazquez up.  6 of 8 in the money in 2018 for a Kitten's Joy who has started 7 of 16 times on grass.

For my purposes, I'd tossing Sightforsoreeyes at my own peril.

So what to do with this?  My mind hasn't really changed.  This is the sort of race I'll be paying attention to the Will Pay ticker as the post parade nears the gate.  I'll be looking for the value bets with Imperial Hint in the Win spot as well as the Place Spot.  I'm not interested in investing $2 dollars to make $3.  I am willing to invest $10 for a chance to make $50.  Is he unbeatable?  No.

Have fun with it friends,  Turk Out!