Handicapper's Corner: Pattison Canadian Int (G1)

2018 Canadian International: Thunder Up North

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

 An outstanding eleven horse lineup, representing Canada, the United States and Europe, have been entered to compete in the $800,000 Canadian International on Saturday at Woodbine in Toronto. 

The 81^st edition of the Canadian International will anchor an outstanding afternoon, highlighted with four stakes races.

The 1-1/2 mile Grade 1 event will be contested over Woodbine’s world-renowned E.P. Taylor Turf Course.

A trio of Woodbine-based horses will give local fans much to cheer about.

In addition, top North American grass conditioner, Chad Brown, no stranger to Grade 1 turf glory, brings a pair of runners to Woodbine. Brown, who is seeking his first win in the event, has been close in three previous attempts with a pair of runner-up finishes and a third-place showing.

European invaders had a stranglehold on the race, winning seven-straight from 2010 through 2016, before the U.S. based Bullard’s Alley put an end to the streak last year winning by a record 10 ¾-lengths.

Post time for this star-stacked international field, featuring some of the finest three-year-olds-and-up in the world, is slated for 5:41 p.m.

PP - Horse – Jockey/Trainer

1 - Markitoff – Irad Ortiz, Jr/Michael Maker

All his racing was done in the States before testing the Woodbine turf for the first-time last month, finishing fourth in Northern Dancer (G1), missing the top spot by just one length. He was offered up for claim several times in the early days and took nine attempts to break his maiden. Since then, he won just once and that was on first day of 2018. His last race was his best. However, there’s still room for improvement and he’s going to need it, as it will take a measurable move forward to topple this group.

2 - Thundering Blue – Fran Berry/David Menuisier

Based in England, this five-year old showed progressive development in 2017, recording wins at three different venues, but has taken his form to a new level this year. After becoming a Group 2 winner at York over 1 5/16 miles, he made his Group 1 debut there in the Juddmonte International at the same distance, running well inside the final furlong, but could not reach the leaders, finishing third at 50-1. He was beaten only by the top English three-year-old’s Roaring Lion and Poet’s Word, while leaving five Group 1 winners behind him. Coming off an impressive win as the 2-5 choice in Sweden’s Group 3 Stockholm Cup just over two weeks ago, the six-time winner from 20 starts will now venture across the Atlantic. This course will suit him well, as he is versatile, having delivered victories at five tracks that are all drastically different. The way he finished against the level of opposition in the Juddmonte race, he can win this contest.

3 - Khan (GER) – Clement Lecoeuvre/Henk Grewe

Following a pair of out of the money placings in Group 1 action this season, the third time out against top company turned out to be the charm for this four-year old German-bred colt, as he stormed home a six-length winner in the 1 ½-mile Preis von Europa (G1) on yielding turf. The victory snapped an eleven-race losing streak and was his first win since breaking maiden ranks more than sixteen months ago. The expected firm condition of the turf course Saturday is cause for concern, as this one really prefers soft going.

4 - Funtastic – John Velazquez/Chad Brown

Following his second allowance win in May, this grey colt quickly stepped up successfully into Grade 1 company at first asking one month later at 23-1, leading a field of nine rivals from gate-to-wire at in the 1 3/8-mile United Nations at Monmouth. Eight weeks later at Saratoga, in the Sword Dancer (G1), he was in perfect position saving ground in third until the stretch, but when asked to pick it up, he backed away and finished seventh. He can stay a distance of ground but must reverse his current form to prove he has developed into a bona-fide Grade 1 caliber horse.

5 - Tiz a Slam – Steve Bahen/Roger Attfield

Local runner flashed early talent in his juvenile year, winning a stake race over this grass course. He suffered a six-race losing streak in 2017, before reuniting with the winner’s circle. Since then, he’s been primarily kept routing on the grass, winning the Nijinsky Stakes (G2), but also found success in the Dominion Day (G3) on the Tapeta, both in wire-to-wire fashion in July. His attempt to make it three in a row fizzled in the Sky Classic (G2) as he gave way grudgingly after leading into the stretch. In the Northern Dancer (G1) the local prep for this event, he became involved in a front-end battle, before fading to finish sixth, beaten two lengths. Four-year old colt has kept consistent form in recent months and should be prominent on or near the lead once again.

6 - Spring Quality – Edgar Prado/Graham Motion

Won his maiden debut as a juvenile, then didn’t re-appear until his four-year old season when he promptly won after a seventeen-month layoff. Success continued throughout 2017 and was capped off in his season finale when he became a graded stakes winner in the Red Smith (G3). Garnered his first Grade 1 victory in June, winning the Manhattan Stakes, at Belmont. He may have felt the effects of an eleven-week layoff when putting in a mild rally to get up for the show spot in the Sword Dancer, two races back. In his most recent outing over soft ground, he ran the worst race of his career when a disappointing seventh in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1). With six wins from thirteen starts, this six-year old gelding knows how to find the finish line, and with a lightly raced campaign this year, he could rebound back to his better form, which would give him a real good shot.

7 - English Illusion – Rafael Hernandez/Sylvain Pion

Five-year old gelding was a sharp $45k claim back in early August. Enters the contest in excellent form, having been victorious in the ungraded Halton Stakes, before jumping up in class to Grade 1 level in the Northern Dancer, where he finished with solid third-place showing. Off that run, he’s earned the right to be in the lineup. The plusses are: He’s in top form and this is his home ground, the other side of the coin reveals, he’s up against more advanced competitors from North America and Europe.

8 -Bandua – Adam Beschizza/Jack Sisterson 

Calumet Farm runner began his career in Ireland and after a pair of moderate starts in America, he now goes for a new barn. He turned in an encouraging run two races back over good turf, finishing third at Arlington in the Secretariat Stakes (G1) against three-year old companions. Last time out at Kentucky Downs he finished fourth after a good trip in the Dueling Grounds Derby. He needs to upgrade his recent performances and the spacious Woodbine turf course could prove to be just the locale for him to showcase his talent.

9 - Johnny Bear – Luis Contreras/Ashlee Brnjas

Talented Ontario-bred star is a multiple-graded stakes winner, having taken back-to-back editions of the Northern Dancer Stakes in 2017-18. Seven-year old gelding has eight wins and is the most experienced horse in the field with 40 lifetime starts. Finished last of ten in last year’s International, but the turf course was soft that afternoon, and for this local runner to take advantage of the home field, the sod needs to be firm. All indications appear the ground condition on Saturday should be ideal for his run.

10 - Desert Encounter (IRE) – Andrea Atzeni/David Simcock

Irish-bred makes his first-ever journey across the Atlantic in search of Grade 1 success. Although he has found the competition in Europe very difficult at times when pitted against Group 1 foes, he’s been able to put forth some respectable finishes. Most recently, he was third, beaten just a half-length in the Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup (G3) at Newbury last month. Is a very consistent runner. In 22 lifetime races, this six-year-old gelding has seven wins, four seconds and five thirds. This one should be comfortable running long on the ‘Euro-style’ turf layout.

11 - Focus Group – Jose Ortiz/Chad Brown

Colt has been on fire this season, winning three of four races and is one length shy of being undefeated. Seeks his third straight win after making a successful stakes debut in a restricted affair at Saratoga. Takes a huge leap up in class, however, he comes from arguably the top turf barn in North America, has good form, is on the improve and can get the distance.

Analysis:

2 -Thundering Blue went from being an average horse to a very talented one in the space of 12 months, indicating he’s top class. His overall record entitles him to a shot at this prize and I believe he'll improve going a mile and a half. He gets the slight nod as my top selection.

6 - Spring Quality did not care for the soft turf at Saratoga last start, so I’ll dismiss it. In his prior two races, he closed fastest through the final quarter. He’s a Grade 1 winner, and relative class combined with late speed dominate on the turf.

10 - Desert Encounter will be saddled by trainer David Simcox, who has had multiple Grade 1 success at this venue. The expansive Woodbine turf course with its long stretch should complement this runner’s style.

The wager: I’ll spend $100 ThorFan dollars as follows.

$30 Win: Thundering Blue

$10 Win: Spring Quality

$4 Exacta: 2,6 / 2,4,6,10 ($24 investment)

$2 Trifecta: 2,6 / 2,4,6,10/ 2,4,6,9,10 ($36 investment) 

Handicapper's Corner: Kentucky Turf Cup (G3)

Turf Routers Shine in Kentucky Turf Cup 

By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers-Off

The Kentucky Turf Cup gives a chance for older turf routers to shine.  It will be run for the 27th time this year, and has always covered a mile and a half on the grass.  The race offers a $400,000 purse, or $750,000 for Kentucky-bred horses.  (Only Some In Tieme, who was bred in Brazil, is ineligible for the higher purse).
 

The race drew an overflow field of sixteen, including last year's winner Oscar Nominated.  Between Oscar Nominated and 2015-2016 winner Da Big Hoss trainer Mike Maker has won the last three editions of the Kentucky Turf Cup, and empties the shedrow for this year's addition.  In addition to last year's champion Maker also conditions Bronson, Bigger Picture, and Soglio in the main field, and Markitoff two deep on the also-eligible list. 

The weather through the week calls for rain, suggesting that not only is affinity for Kentucky Downs a plus factor, but so is the ability to run over ground with some give.

Oscar Nominated won last year, and may prove tough to beat once again given his form and his tactical versatility.  He hails from the barn of consistent turf stayer trainer Mike Maker, and his own form at a mile and a half has been strong: in five starts at the distance, he has two wins and three second-place finishes.  One of those wins came in this race last year.  One of those second-place finishes came over soft ground; he ran second behind Bullard’s Alley’s freakish effort last year’s Canadian International, run over soft going.  His form over the Kentucky Downs oval is beyond reproach, as well; Oscar Nominated has started twice there, and has a Kentucky Turf Cup win and a Dueling Grounds Derby score to his name.  He will likely go off the favorite, but the race looks tailor-made for him.

Big Bend is unproven in a bog, but otherwise has a lot going for him.  He went gate-to-wire in last year’s Dueling Grounds Derby, and now returns to the site of that triumph.  There isn’t a whole lot of early gas in this race, making it possible that he could get that sort of trip again.  But?  Even though that was a frontrunning score, he does not have to be on the front end to succeed.  Big Bend proved that next out in the Sycamore (G3) at Keeneland, where he rallied from off the pace to win.  That race, in addition to an allowance victory last year, also proves he has twelve-furlong stamina.  The connections also bode well for Big Bend.  Tom Proctor is choosy and successful with his Kentucky Downs shippers.  And rider Drayden Van Dyke is both one of the hottest riders in the country, and adept at riding Kentucky Downs when he ships out there.  He also has rapport with Big Bend already; he rode the son of Union Rags in both the Dueling Grounds Derby and the Sycamore.

Patterson Cross needs a defection from the main field in order to draw in, but if he gets a single scratch in front of him, he can win.  Patterson Cross is a closer who matches well on speed with these foes, and reliably fires a smart closing rally.  He also has proven mile and a half stamina.  Though he has yet to win at the distance, he has frequently finished in the frame, including finishing third beaten only a neck by Sadler’s Joy in the Pan American (G2) last year.  Patterson Cross is fit; he actually cuts back from the thirteen-furlong John’s Call Stakes at the Spa last out, in which he finished beaten only a length after a tough trip late. He needs a bit of luck to draw in, but if he does, don’t let him sneak off the also-eligibles unnoticed.

Selections:

#6 Oscar Nominated (7/2)

#12 Big Bend (10/1)

#13 Patterson Cross (12/1)

Longshot:  Between the rain in the forecast and the generally good record of closers in route races at Kentucky Downs, #11 My Bariley (20/1) should have plenty of say down the lane.  Though he was off the board in his only start at Kentucky Downs, toss it with confidence: the race was his juvenile debut, and it was a sprint. Sprints over the course tend to favor speed, and beyond that, My Bariley is a proven late runner.  He also thrives in a bog; it rained all week leading up to his sharp late-running victory in the Hawthorne Derby last year.

Handicapper's Corner: Beverly D (G1)

Backwheel Daddys Lil Darling in Competitive Beverly D

By: Reinier Macatangay, Setting the Pace

Nine fillies will compete in the Grade 1, $600,000 Beverly D Stakes on Saturday at Arlington Park, and none of them truly stick out. Using TimeformUS, at least six of these runners are capable of posting a number in the low to mid-120s, one is a seemingly misplaced European invader, and the last two are overmatched.

 

Here is the field.

Daddys Lil Darling (8-1) – She is a remarkably consistent filly with seven on-the-board finishes in 10 turf attempts. In the three she missed, she only lost the race by about two lengths or less. While sometimes she gets overbet as a fan favorite, that should not be the case this time. Interesting backwheel candidate.

Nyaleti (15-1) – The lack of Lasix for this European invader is a disappointment. Furthermore, all 13 of her races came at one mile or less, and the Beverly D is run at 1 3/16 miles. She did compete against the talented Alpha Centauri in the Falmouth (G1), although she finished 12 lengths behind. Limit underneath, if it all.

 Sistercharlie (9/5) – Some bettors believe this filly is a single, but her form does not indicate an invincible favorite. In her last start in the Diana Stakes (G1) at Saratoga, she almost lost to the longshot Ultra Brat. Two starts ago, she lost to Fourstar Crook in the New York Stakes (G2). With that said, she must be used.

Dona Bruja (6-1) – This mare’s recent running tactics are a bit strange. She went to the front in both 2018 starts, and while it led to a win in the Endeavour Stakes (G3) at Tampa Bay, it seemed to cost her a placing in the Jenny Wiley (G1). Will she revert back to the closing style that suited her last year? Contender.

Thais (30-1) – On paper, she is severely overmatched. But why would trainer Chad Brown allow her to run in this spot? For a sharp trainer, he is making an odd decision, unless the owners forced him to enter the race. Something to think about.

Oh So Terrible (50-1) – Another overmatched filly. Bradley Ross is an unknown trainer to the wider racing public. Prefer to pass.

Fourstar Crook (9/2) – Consistent seems like a good word to use for many of these fillies. This one sports a 17-11-3-1 record, and a 3-2-1-0 record in 2018. Her one loss came against Sistercharlie in the Jenny Wiley (G1), but she went on to defeat her in the New York Stakes (G2). Chad Brown teams up with Irad Ortiz Jr., and for many, that is a lethal combination. Obviously, she must be considered. 

Inflexibility (8-1) – Nice effort at Woodbine. She led the field through a fast pace, and just got a little tired late when losing to Santa Monica. The runner-up finish in the Beaugay Stakes (G3) after checking on the first turn looks good too. Brown teams up with Joel Rosario this time, and she must be considered.

Athena (3-1) – European invader comes back for more under Aidan O’Brien. She scored a nice win in the Belmont Oaks Invitational (G1) by over two lengths, although the fast pace benefited her. A fast pace is unlikely in this race, but it might not matter. Two starts ago, she ran fourth against Urban Fox in the Pretty Polly (G1) overseas, and third to the impressive Magic Wand in the Ribblesdale (G2) at Royal Ascot. She must find the American competition relieving. Contender.

Conclusion
Unfortunately, the race is not clear. Daddys Lil Darling, Sistercharlie, Dona Bruja, Fourstar Crook, Inflexibility and Athena all have a chance to win.

Handigambling ($100)

There are a lot of contenders here, and no true standout. So, backwheel Daddys Lil Darling.

$4 Trifecta - $80 in all

3,4,7,8,9 / 3,4,7,8,9 / 1

$4 Exacta - $20 in all

3,4,7,8,9 / 1

 

Handicapper's Corner: Arlington Million (G1)

Will a Turf King be Crowned in Arlington Million?

By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers Off

The centerpiece of the summer meet at Arlington is the Arlington Million: the world's first million-dollar Thoroughbred race when it was inaugurated in 1981.  Its first running is commemorated with a statue overlooking the paddock at Arlington Park: a replica of the tight photo finish that went to John Henry over The Bart.

The victor's spoils include a Win and You're In berth to the Breeders' Cup Turf (G1).   To date, one horse has swept that Arlington Million - Breeders' Cup Turf double: Little Mike, in 2014.  However, one other horse won a Breeders' Cup race after his Million triumph; Steinlen (1989) ended his championship campaign that year with a victory in the Breeders' Cup Mile (G1)  


A field of ten, including last year's Secretariat Stakes (G1) winner Oscar Performance, will  vie for their shares of a million-dollar purse.  (Eleven drew into the race, but  according to the Daily Racing Form, Divisidero is expected to scratch from the Million and run in the Fourstardave (G1) at Saratoga instead.)

Robert Bruce  got mugged in the Manhattan (G1) last-up.  The Chile-bred four-year-old, undefeated leading into that race, got squished between horses twice down the lane, and somehow managed to recover enough momentum to make up ground at the end.  He crossed the wire just a length behind Spring Quality, who had far smoother sailing outside.  This consistent colt has never run a bad race -- and his tenacity in the face of trouble suggests he'll be ready for another smart try.  From a pace perspective he should be well set, too; he is tactically versatile enough to track closer up or set well back, so he'll be  effective whether Oscar Performance, Catcho En Die, or both go to the lead.  The ground should suit, as well, as he can handle ground with some wet in it.  All in all, Robert Bruce is a consistent and versatile horse who should be ready with his best here.

Almanaar  looked a rising star on the American turf scene last year when he won the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap (G1) last year.  Then, he was off for over a year.  His return was strong, however: even though it was an allowance race, he won easily despite taking a while to settle down, while multiple graded stakes winner Ticonderoga was being asked.  In short?  He won his return with more in the tank, and now should be fitter second-up.  He should be doing his best work late, but has proven he can rally well even if the pace in front of him isn't torrid.  The biggest question about Almanaar is the distance, as he was well beaten in his only ten-furlong try.  But, that was over a bog -- though there  has been some rain this week at Arlington, the turf course was quite firm leading into the week, and the ground won't be as saturated as soft going at Deauville.

Beyond that pair, there are a lot of horses who could have a say.  Morning line favorite Oscar Performance won the Secretariat Stakes over the course and distance last year, and should likely be tracking just off Catcho En Die.  (Or, perhaps, he makes the running if Catcho En Die does not fire early.)  But, at a likely short price, he's hard to love on top. T here's the other Chad Brown, Money Multiplier, who comes into this in good form and should handle the distance, but has been a nibbles-underneath sort at this level.  There's Spring Quality, who has some pace versatility and is a last-out Grade 1 winner at the distance, but is unproven over ground with some cut.

So, we'll look abroad to the "A" Euro.  No, not Deauville, who is hard to trust as anything but an underneath sort.  We mean Century Dream, a horse  who ran a cracking fourth  in the Queen Anne (G1) at Royal Ascot two starts back -- three quarters of a length behind winner Accidental Agent, and just a nose behind next-out Sussex Stakes (G1) winner Lightning Spear.  Though he wasn't quite as sharp next out for the Summer Mile (G2), perhaps he regressed after such a big effort.  A question about Century Dream is the distance, as he has not yet won at a mile and a quarter against this class.  But, he has won at the distance last year, and did prepare for that outing at a mile.  Though his single mile and a quarter effort this year was disappointing, Century Dream has some excuses: the Prix d'Harcourt (G2) was his first outing in half a year, and his first against Group company.  He has rounded into better form since then, and this pace-versatile son of Cape Cross should be well suited by ground that has gotten a drink of water this week.

Selections:

#10 Robert Bruce (9/2)

#3 Almanaar (5/1)

#5 Century Dream (12/1)

Longshot:

 As discussed above, there are plenty of short- to mid-priced horses who can get a piece of this.  But, for a big bomber?  There's a lot to be said for up-and-comer  #7 TWENTY FOUR SEVEN (30/1).  He will have to take a step forward for this, of course; his two wins this meet have come in allowances, and he was sixth in the Arlington Handicap last-up.  He will have to run his best race.  But, it isn't an unreasonable step forward he needs to finish in the frame.   

The step forward in distance will help: Twenty Four Seven was gradually making up ground in the Arlington Handicap.  He stretches out another half-furlong here, and given his breeding, the extra ground should suit.  

 Twenty Four Seven is by City Zip, whose progeny can be any kind, and the underside is all turf route class.  His dam is a half-sister to Breeders' Cup Turf winner Chief Bearhart, Secretariat Stakes 2nd-place finisher Explosive Red, and Ruby Ransom, the dam of MG2W turf router Strut the Stage.    

All in all, does Twenty Four Seven look a likely winner?  Not really; he's probably not fast enough, and he doesn't quite have the turn of foot.  But, does he have a better shot to invade the exotics than your average 30/1 morning line shot?  Between his affinity for the course, his dogged late improvement in the Arlington Handicap, and his turf route pedigree,  he does.