Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Arkansas Derby (G1)

Improbable Winner in Arkansas Derby

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Board Chairman 

The Arkansas Derby is the last hope for some horses to find their way to the Kentucky Derby. The race’s 100 qualifying points will guarantee the winner a spot in the gate. Only two horse in the race already have enough points to be in the Derby field on May 4, 2019. They are: Omaha Beach (#19 with 37.5 points) and Long Range Toddy (#11 with 53.5 points). Clearly Omaha Beach needs to pick-up a share of the points to improve his chances. Long Range Toddy for trainer Asmussen would like to repeat his Rebel win and collect 60% of the million-dollar purse. The rest need to be in the money if they have any Derby aspirations.   


The prep for this race was the Rebel Stakes (GII) run on March 16^th in two divisions. With the closing of Santa Anita its Derby prep, the San Felipe, was cancelled. This forced a number of west coast horses to migrate to Arkansas for the Rebel Stakes and Derby points. These races were confusing for many handicappers. One division showed a bias for speed, while the other showed the opposite.

1.  Improbable ((City Zip) made a closing move in the Rebel, but was passed by Long Range Toddy. As the favorite the move by jockey Van Dyke was unexplained. Baffert goes to Jose Ortiz for a better ride. Rail draw may compromise.

2.  Six Shooter (Trappe Shot) is taking a big step up in class. Working nicely, but is not fast enough for this race. Maybe next race.

3.  Omaha Beach (War Front) is fit and ready. Mike Smith returns to try to notch another win, even though it would seem he already has his Derby horse. Drew perfectly to track the early speed and move when they tire. Looks like a serious contender in need of an insurance policy to get in the Derby field.

4.  Tikhvin Flew (Street Sense) fought the bias in the Gotham Stakes. Although breeding says so, his past performances suggest he might like a shorter race. Will push the pace for others.  Maybe in exotics?

5.  Laughing Fox (Union Rags) starting from inside he had trouble in early stages of the Rebel Stakes and was not able to regain position. The combination of jockey Santana and trainer Asmussen is powerful in Arkansas Derby. Drawing mid-pack in this race should give Santana a clean start and chance to position for a late run. Maybe?

6.  Gray Attempt (Graydar) will again try to get out front of the field and improve his position. However, it backfired in the Southwest Stakes and should here.

7.  Galilean (Uncle Mo) connections thought he could win the Rebel Stakes, but couldn’t overtake Improbable and was dusted by Long Range Toddy. Keeps jockey Prat and takes off blinkers. Since trainer Hollendorfer is not that successful with the blinkers off move, suspicion is they are guessing. Will they guess right?

8.  Country House (Lookin At Lucky) is the only one in the field that has tried the 8-furlong distance. He did it in the Louisiana Derby but had trouble in the 1^st and 2^nd turns which took him out of contention. New jockey may make the difference.

9.  One Flew South (Giant’s Causeway) is jumping up in class, however with Borel up anything can happen. Fast out of the gate. Will assure the pace is a good one. After that who knows.

10.  Jersey Agenda (Jersey Town) is showing some improvement, but not likely enough to make a difference here. Jockey Ortiz goes to Improbable for Baffert. Asmussen puts up Vazquez who has a 26% win percentage for him. Interesting. Another pace setter.

11.  Long Rane Toddy (Take Charge Indy) is a solid closer as he proved in the Rebel Stakes. Asmussen has four horses in the field of eleven. Two are pace setters ( Tikhvin and Jersey Agenda). This one is his best shot run the field down for a second win.

On so many variables Improbable is the real deal. Working great and improving pattern suggests Baffert has him ready. He needs to win or place to get enough qualifying points to get into the Derby. However, his post position is a problem, especially with Mike Smith on Omaha Beach one path to his outside who will surely try to box him in. Other speeders will reinforce Smith’s strategy. 

As the field settles into the final turn, Omaha Beach and the long shot, Tikhvin Flew, should be on the lead. Galilean should be right behind looking for a way to win. Note here that the trainer of Galilean, Hollendorfer, came into the Rebel after the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita was cancelled. May not have been fully prepared for that race. Trying now with blinkers off. Could surprise at a price.

With all the speed in the race, two solid closer are legitimate contenders ---Country House and Long Range Toddy. However, both will need to improve off last to make it to the Winner’s Circle.

So here is how I see the race finishing:

#7  Galilean (#7)

#8  Country House (#8)

#3  Omaha Beach (#3)

#4  Tikhvin Flew (#4)

Handigamble:

$20 win and $40 to place on Galilean (#7)                   $60

$5 Exacta Box Galilean (#7) and Country House (#8)  $10

$1.00 Trifecta Box (#3, #4, #7 and #8,)                     $24

Good luck, but keep the day job.