Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Belmont Stakes Handicapper's Consensus

ThoroFan 'Cappers Face Test of Champions

The ThoroFan Handicappers resolutely face the Test of Champions, while making their selections for the 2019 Belmont Stakes. 

Doc hauls out the dartboard and gives us his best bet superfecta play!  It has gotten closer in each of the first 2 legs of the Triple Crown to picking the top 4 finishers. Give they way things are going this year – Doc has the idea!

Good Luck to everyone!

HANDICAPPER	FIRST	SECOND	THIRD	LONGSHOT
Michael Amo	Tacitus	Sir Winston	Master Fencer	Bourbon War
John Caro	Tax	Tacitus	Master Fencer	Sir Winston
Nick Costa	War of Will	Tax	Tacitus	Intrepid Heart
Robert Marks	Intrepid Heart	Tacitus	Tax	Master Fencer
Michael Mills	Sir Winston	Tacitus	Master Fencer	Bourbon War
Nicolle Neulist	Intrepid Heart	War of Will	Tacitus	Tax
Laurie Ross	Tacitus	War of Will	Master Fencer	Spinoff

Doc's Dart Board Belmont Best Bet Superfecta Play

Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Arkansas Derby (G1)

Improbable Winner in Arkansas Derby

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Board Chairman 

The Arkansas Derby is the last hope for some horses to find their way to the Kentucky Derby. The race’s 100 qualifying points will guarantee the winner a spot in the gate. Only two horse in the race already have enough points to be in the Derby field on May 4, 2019. They are: Omaha Beach (#19 with 37.5 points) and Long Range Toddy (#11 with 53.5 points). Clearly Omaha Beach needs to pick-up a share of the points to improve his chances. Long Range Toddy for trainer Asmussen would like to repeat his Rebel win and collect 60% of the million-dollar purse. The rest need to be in the money if they have any Derby aspirations.   


The prep for this race was the Rebel Stakes (GII) run on March 16^th in two divisions. With the closing of Santa Anita its Derby prep, the San Felipe, was cancelled. This forced a number of west coast horses to migrate to Arkansas for the Rebel Stakes and Derby points. These races were confusing for many handicappers. One division showed a bias for speed, while the other showed the opposite.

1.  Improbable ((City Zip) made a closing move in the Rebel, but was passed by Long Range Toddy. As the favorite the move by jockey Van Dyke was unexplained. Baffert goes to Jose Ortiz for a better ride. Rail draw may compromise.

2.  Six Shooter (Trappe Shot) is taking a big step up in class. Working nicely, but is not fast enough for this race. Maybe next race.

3.  Omaha Beach (War Front) is fit and ready. Mike Smith returns to try to notch another win, even though it would seem he already has his Derby horse. Drew perfectly to track the early speed and move when they tire. Looks like a serious contender in need of an insurance policy to get in the Derby field.

4.  Tikhvin Flew (Street Sense) fought the bias in the Gotham Stakes. Although breeding says so, his past performances suggest he might like a shorter race. Will push the pace for others.  Maybe in exotics?

5.  Laughing Fox (Union Rags) starting from inside he had trouble in early stages of the Rebel Stakes and was not able to regain position. The combination of jockey Santana and trainer Asmussen is powerful in Arkansas Derby. Drawing mid-pack in this race should give Santana a clean start and chance to position for a late run. Maybe?

6.  Gray Attempt (Graydar) will again try to get out front of the field and improve his position. However, it backfired in the Southwest Stakes and should here.

7.  Galilean (Uncle Mo) connections thought he could win the Rebel Stakes, but couldn’t overtake Improbable and was dusted by Long Range Toddy. Keeps jockey Prat and takes off blinkers. Since trainer Hollendorfer is not that successful with the blinkers off move, suspicion is they are guessing. Will they guess right?

8.  Country House (Lookin At Lucky) is the only one in the field that has tried the 8-furlong distance. He did it in the Louisiana Derby but had trouble in the 1^st and 2^nd turns which took him out of contention. New jockey may make the difference.

9.  One Flew South (Giant’s Causeway) is jumping up in class, however with Borel up anything can happen. Fast out of the gate. Will assure the pace is a good one. After that who knows.

10.  Jersey Agenda (Jersey Town) is showing some improvement, but not likely enough to make a difference here. Jockey Ortiz goes to Improbable for Baffert. Asmussen puts up Vazquez who has a 26% win percentage for him. Interesting. Another pace setter.

11.  Long Rane Toddy (Take Charge Indy) is a solid closer as he proved in the Rebel Stakes. Asmussen has four horses in the field of eleven. Two are pace setters ( Tikhvin and Jersey Agenda). This one is his best shot run the field down for a second win.

On so many variables Improbable is the real deal. Working great and improving pattern suggests Baffert has him ready. He needs to win or place to get enough qualifying points to get into the Derby. However, his post position is a problem, especially with Mike Smith on Omaha Beach one path to his outside who will surely try to box him in. Other speeders will reinforce Smith’s strategy. 

As the field settles into the final turn, Omaha Beach and the long shot, Tikhvin Flew, should be on the lead. Galilean should be right behind looking for a way to win. Note here that the trainer of Galilean, Hollendorfer, came into the Rebel after the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita was cancelled. May not have been fully prepared for that race. Trying now with blinkers off. Could surprise at a price.

With all the speed in the race, two solid closer are legitimate contenders ---Country House and Long Range Toddy. However, both will need to improve off last to make it to the Winner’s Circle.

So here is how I see the race finishing:

#7  Galilean (#7)

#8  Country House (#8)

#3  Omaha Beach (#3)

#4  Tikhvin Flew (#4)

Handigamble:

$20 win and $40 to place on Galilean (#7)                   $60

$5 Exacta Box Galilean (#7) and Country House (#8)  $10

$1.00 Trifecta Box (#3, #4, #7 and #8,)                     $24

Good luck, but keep the day job.

 

Handicapper's Corner: Sham Stakes (G3)

More Baffert Babies in the Sham Stakes

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

The Sham Stakes (G3) was named in honor of the 1973 underdog shadowed Secretariat through the Triple Crown series.  The seal brown, well-bred colt finished second to Secretariat in the Kentucky Derby, despite bashing his head against the starting gate so hard he lost two teeth. Sham’s time under the wire was a sub 2:00 and faster than Monarchos' winning time in 2001. In any other year, Sham would have been a Triple Crown winner.  Sham was a superstar in his own right, equaling the track record for 1 1/8 miles in the Santa Anita Derby. 

The 2019 Sham Stakes awards points as a Kentucky Derby qualifier.  Most of the Sham Stakes victors have continued their careers as sprinter/milers. Only two colts have hit the board in both the Sham and the Kentucky Derby; Empire Maker finished second in both races in 2003 and 2005, Giacomo was third in the Sham during his successful trip to Louisville.

This year, seven three-year-old colts will run a mile over the Santa Anita main track. A trio of trainers each brings two colts to the party.

Bob Baffert has conditioned three of the last five Sham Stakes winners. This year, he sends out the much-hyped, even-money favorite Coliseum and Much Better, who switches back to dirt after two turf starts.

Let’s start with Coliseum. The son of Tapit out of the multiple graded stakes-winning sprinter Game Face made his racing debut at seven furlongs. He went gate to wire, striding out to win his debut by 6 3/4-lengths.  Coliseum earned a lofty Brisnet late-pace speed figure of 102.  The pretty gray colt has been firing off solo bullet works like a machine gun. 

Much Better, the other Baffert entry won his debut at 6 1/2 -furlongs on dirt then switched to turf, where he placed second in the Zuma Beach Stakes after a stretch battle.  The son of Pioneerof The Nile had an adventurous trip in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, where he was in tight, bumped and pushed wide. He decided enough was enough and checked in 17 lengths behind the winner.  Like Coliseum, Much Better is out of a graded stakes winning sprinter. Much Better’s breeze pattern is slower than Coliseum’s, but the dark bay colt did fire off two recent back-to-back bullet works.

Trainer Peter Miller also brought a duo of 3-year-olds to the Sham. In his first start for Miller, Gray Magician stretched out to a mile and dazzled with a 9 1/2-length victory over a maiden field at Del Mar, earning a late-pace speed figure of 94. The son of Graydar is out of the stakes-winning miler Burg Berg, and he’s a full brother to last year’s R.B. Lewis Stakes (G3) winner Lombo.  

  

Miller’s other contestant is the game front-runner Savagery. The son of Bellamy Road is the most experienced colt in the field, with six starts under his girth. He placed second in the Sunny Slope and Bob Hope (G3), but raced greenly in the Cash Call Futurity, blowing the first turn while wiping out competitors, lugging in through the stretch, and finally deciding he had enough and backing out of it. Savagery finished fourth but was placed fifth after a DQ.  The cut back to seven furlongs should help.

Keith Desormeaux trains longshots Sueno and Easy Shot. Sueno stretched successfully to a mile in the Gold Rush Stakes at Golden Gate in his first start since August. He draws the golden rail and Keith’s brother Kent switches from regular mount Easy Shot to Sueno. 

Easy Shot is the 30-1 longshot of the Sham Stakes. The son of Trappe Shot showed improvement in his last two starts, high-end maiden claimers, and he won his last at 6 1/2-furlongs. Although he’s kept lesser company, Easy Shot’s late pace speed figures fit with the rest of the field.  In his last breeze, Easy Shot flanked his workmate before drawing off in the lane under mild urging. Bejarano rides for the first time. 

Poor Gunmetal Gray. In his debut,  he was run over by Roadster and finished ten lengths back. Second time out at a mile, the son of Exchange Rate won easily at a mile by 6 3/4- lengths.  Fresh off his maiden score, the pretty gray colt faced Game Winner, and while he wasn’t going to catch his rival, Gunmetal Gray got up for second place. In his last start, the Hollendorfer trainee broke from post 11 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and eventually made his way up to fifth place behind Game Winner. Gunmetal Gray cuts back to a mile and gets a jock switch to Mike Smith. 

Selections:

So, the ultimate question is will Coliseum regress off his huge late pace speed figure? Will he vie for the lead or sit off the pace? Gunmetal Gray is the class of the field, and Mike Smith takes over. He wasn’t going to get close to Game Winner, but he did finish second on the American Pharoah and fifth in a full field in the BC Juvie. Easy Shot is an interesting horse. Yes, he’s been running in claiming races, but the $80K level isn’t much different than a maiden special.

#2 GUNMETAL GRAY (5-2)

#5 COLISEUM (1-1)

#1 SUENO (20-1)

#4 EASY SHOT (30-1)

Handigambling:

Overwhelming favorites do get beat – just look at what happened to Audible in the Harlan’s Holiday Stakes. If you had boxed him with the winner and third place horses, the ones most likely to finish in the money, you would have received a nice payout.  

When there’s an overwhelming favorite in the race and looks better on paper, I like to box them with the horses most likely to benefit if the favorite comes up short.  

$100 virtual ThoroFan currency

$4.00 Super box - #2, #5, #1, #4 = $96.00

 

Handicapper's Corner: Los Alamitos Futurity (G1)

Baffert Aiming for Five Straight Futurity Wins

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

The Los Alamitos Futurity (formerly known as the CashCall Futurity) is the last Grade One race of the year held for two-year-old colts, and the top four will earn points towards a berth in the 2019 Kentucky Derby. 

Since the race’s inception in 1981, 16 colts who hit the board in the Futurity have also run in the money in at least one of the Triple Crown races.  Six won the Kentucky Derby and three each the Preakness and Belmont Stakes. 2014’s Los Futurity hero Dortmund finished third in the 2015 Kentucky Derby.

Bob Baffert has dominated the Los Alamitos Futurity with a record ten victories and has won the last four editions of the 1 1/16-mile race.  This year, Baffert conditions two of the six contenders. IMPROBABLE and MUCHO GUSTO, are lightly raced undefeated stakes winners, both trained by Baffert, and will likely vie for betting favoritism.  

In the one mile Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs on Breeders’ Cup Friday, IMPROBABLE blew away a field of last out maiden winners by 7 1/4 lengths. The son of City Zip isn’t a need the lead type and can press or sit off the pace. The only drawback for the large Chestnut colt is the rail post and the potential of being blocked in by outside speed.

MUCHO GUSTO wired the field in both outings and was last seen defeating SAVAGERY and EXTRA HOPE in the seven-furlong Bob Hope Stakes (G3) at Del Mar. By Mucho Macho Man out of a daughter of Giant’s Causeway, Mucho Gusto should love the extra distance.

After wiring the field by 11 lengths in his maiden victory, SAVAGERY was dueled into submission by graded stakes placed Sparkyville in the Sunny Slope Stakes, then Mucho Gusto did same in the Bob Hope. This time around, trainer Peter Miller takes the blinkers off the son of Bellamy Road in hopes of getting him to relax, and Geroux Florent takes over from Bejarano.

After winning his maiden DUELING was tossed into the deep end of the kiddie pool in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. The longshot ran pretty much as expected, checking in sixth, after being wide the entire way. The Hollendorfer trainee is back in a little bit easier spot and having Mike Smith as a pilot can’t hurt.

The late-running EXTRA HOPE found the Bob Hope Stakes a little too short and gets a chance to stretch back out to 1 1/6-miles. He and Dueling are the only colts in the field with experience at the distance. 

The ironically named KING OF SPEED is a one-run closer who, after a couple of bad beats on dirt at the beginning of his career, found success as a stakes-winning turf sprinter. This is clearly a “what is he thinking” moment for Jeff Bonde. Either that or the connections have caught an early case of Derby fever.

 Selections

78% of the races at Los Alamitos are won by pace setters or pressers, usually from the rail.  The blinkers off on Savagery may be an effort to get him to relax, and his sprint-oriented pedigree makes him vulnerable at the distance. That leaves Mucho Gusto as the lone early speed. Savagery and Improbable won’t be too far off the pace, with Dueling and Extra Hope right behind. King of Speed does his best running late.

I’m sensing a Baffert exacta unless one of his contenders stubs a hoof.

#1 IMPROBABLE (6-5)

#6 MUCHO GUSTO (3-1)

#3 DUELING (6-1)

HANDIGAMBING

Part of being a successful bettor is knowing when to skip a race. Neither of the early favorites seems to have weak spots, and there’s no logical longshot, except maybe for Dueling. Toss a couple of bucks on Dueling if you must bet and if the odds deem it worthwhile.

Handicapper's Corner: Bob Hope Stakes (G3)

Mucho to Like About These KY Derby Hopefuls

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

The Grade 3 Bob Hope Stakes for 2-year-old colts and geldings rarely has implications on the Kentucky Derby, but there are some distance-oriented pedigrees in this seven-furlong contest.

Recent winners of the Bob Hope Stakes include  2013 Champion 2 Year Old Colt, Shared Belief and CashCall Futurity winner Mastery.  Bob Baffert has conditioned eight previous winners of the Bob Hope and has two entrants this year.

Let’s take a look at the field.

SPARKY VILLE (3-1) is the most experienced of the lot with five starts under his girth. He was last seen winning the 6 1/2-furlong Sunny Slope Stakes by 1 1/4 lengths over three other foes, including Savagery. Previously, the son of Candy Ride placed second in the Best Pal to Instrgrad. Granted, he was ten lengths back of the speedy winner, but Sparky Ville finished 3 1/4-lengths in front of the third place runner. The Jeff Bonde trainee is the class of the field, and jockey Gary Stevens can let the colt press the pace or sit farther back, a good place to be in a field of wannabe front-runners.

Bob Baffert sends out a pair of last out maiden winners.  MUCHO GUSTO (5-2) ran them off their feet in a six-furlong event at Los Al. The track is noted for producing very fast fractions, and this son of Mucho Macho Man zipped along in 12.96, 45.75, 57.82 and finished up four lengths to the good in 1:10.14.  Out of a Giant’s Causeway mare, Mucho Gusto is bred to handle middle to classic distances.

The other Baffert colt, METROPOL (4-1), beat three other colts in his 6 1/2-furlong debut at Santa Anita in 1:17.56. His dam is a half-sister to multiple G1SW turf router Wonder Again, and another half-sister bore Bashford Manor (G3) hero Ten City, so who knows how talented Metropol will be, or which surface he may eventually prefer? The colt does have high knee action but gets over the dirt just fine. 

EXTRA HOPE (7-2) won a maiden race by eight lengths after stretching to 1 1/16-miles. The late-running son of Shanghai Bobby was unsuccessful in three other maiden attempts at shorter distances. Richard Mandella gave the colt a bullet 4-furlong breeze before the Bob Hope.  With much of the field being speed-oriented, Extra Hope would benefit from fast early fractions.

SAVAGERY (4-1) has four-lifetime starts. He’s the type to gun to the lead and hang on for as long as he can. He got in a speed duel in the Sunny Slope, but couldn’t hold on the late-charging Sparky Ville.  The extra half furlong won’t do Savagery any favors unless they leave him alone on the lead.

OWNING (15-1) captured his debut, but was out of his league in the Best Pal and Del Mar Juvenile Turf. The pretty gray colt may find the Bob Hope field a little easier to handle but still needs to prove his class.

SUENO (15-1) showed improvement in his second start, capturing an $80K maiden claimer at Del Mar by 4 3/4 lengths this summer. He’ll also do his best work late, and will hope for a speed duel up front.

SELECTIONS

Is MUCHO GUSTO mucho the best? Is he just too fast for them, will he rate, or will he be softened up on the lead?  Too many questions for a 5-2 shot.  Instead, I’ll go with SPARKY VILLE at 3-1. He’s the known class of the field and has experience. He can sit wherever Gary Stevens puts him, plus Sparky Ville has the highest late pace SF in the field.

#6 SPARKY VILLE (3-1)

#3 MUCHO GUSTO (5-2)

#2 EXTRA HOPE (7-2)

#1 METROPOL (4-1)

HANDIGAMBLING

The two Baffert babies may take the bulk of the wagering money because, well, it’s Baffert, and he’s won the Bob Hope Stakes more times than any other trainer. Hopefully, the odds will drift up on Sparky Ville to a more enticing 4-1 or better. This looks like a chalky race, so exotics are the way to go. Here’s how to use ThoroFan’s virtual $100:

$4 Superfecta — #6, #3, #2, #1 = $96

$2 Win/Place — #6 at odds of 4-1 or higher = $4