Baffert Aiming for Five Straight Futurity Wins
By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power
Since the race’s inception in
1981, 16 colts who hit the board in the Futurity have also run in the money in
at least one of the Triple Crown races.
Six won the Kentucky Derby and three each the Preakness and Belmont
Stakes. 2014’s Los Futurity hero Dortmund finished third in the 2015 Kentucky
Derby.
Bob Baffert has dominated the Los
Alamitos Futurity with a record ten victories
and has won the last four editions of the 1
1/16-mile race. This year, Baffert
conditions two of the six contenders. IMPROBABLE and MUCHO GUSTO, are lightly
raced undefeated stakes winners, both trained by Baffert, and will likely vie
for betting favoritism.
In the one mile Street Sense
Stakes at Churchill Downs on Breeders’ Cup Friday, IMPROBABLE
blew away a field of last out maiden winners by 7 1/4 lengths. The son of City
Zip isn’t a need the lead type and can press or sit off the pace. The only
drawback for the large Chestnut colt is the rail post and the potential of being blocked in by outside speed.
MUCHO GUSTO wired the field in both outings
and was last seen defeating SAVAGERY and EXTRA HOPE
in the seven-furlong Bob Hope Stakes (G3)
at Del Mar. By Mucho Macho Man out of a daughter of Giant’s Causeway, Mucho
Gusto should love the extra distance.
After wiring
the field by 11 lengths in his maiden victory, SAVAGERY was dueled into submission by graded stakes placed Sparkyville in the Sunny Slope Stakes,
then Mucho Gusto did same in the Bob Hope. This time around, trainer Peter
Miller takes the blinkers off the son of Bellamy Road in hopes of getting him
to relax, and Geroux Florent takes over
from Bejarano.
After winning his maiden DUELING was tossed into the deep end of
the kiddie pool in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. The longshot ran pretty much as
expected, checking in sixth, after being
wide the entire way. The Hollendorfer trainee is back in a little bit easier spot
and having Mike Smith as a pilot can’t hurt.
The late-running EXTRA HOPE found the Bob Hope Stakes a little too short and gets a chance to stretch back out to
1 1/6-miles. He and Dueling are the only colts in the field with experience at the distance.
The
ironically named KING OF SPEED is a one-run closer who, after a couple of bad beats
on dirt at the beginning of his career, found success as a stakes-winning turf sprinter. This is clearly
a “what is he thinking” moment for Jeff Bonde. Either that or the connections
have caught an early case of Derby fever.
Selections
78% of the races at Los Alamitos are won by pace setters or
pressers, usually from the rail. The
blinkers off on Savagery may be an effort to get him to relax, and his sprint-oriented
pedigree makes him vulnerable at the distance.
That leaves Mucho Gusto as the lone early speed. Savagery and Improbable won’t
be too far off the pace, with Dueling and Extra Hope right behind. King of
Speed does his best running late.
I’m sensing a Baffert exacta
unless one of his contenders stubs a hoof.
#1 IMPROBABLE (6-5)
#6 MUCHO GUSTO (3-1)
#3 DUELING (6-1)
HANDIGAMBING
Part of being a successful bettor
is knowing when to skip a race. Neither of the early favorites seems to have weak spots, and there’s no logical longshot, except maybe
for Dueling. Toss a couple of bucks on Dueling if you must bet and if the odds
deem it worthwhile.
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