Handicapper's Corner: Cigar Mile (G1)

Patton Returns!

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Chairman

After winning the UAE Derby by more than 18 lengths, Mendelssohn traveled to Kentucky to be embarrassed by more than 20 lengths in the Kentucky Derby over a very sloppy track. His next four races were states-side, none of which found him in the Winners’ Circle. In each, he pushed the pace, but could not win. This weekend he will try again. 

The field is not as strong. But do any have the pace strength to challenge the Scat Daddy bred favorite? Take a look at the field.

    1.   Mendelssohn (Scat Daddy) appears the best but could be pushed beyond his ability. As in all previous races except one, this was a major obstacle for him. He has run the mile distance twice, once on the turf and once on the dirt, and won both. The Patton Stakes is the most important predictor for the Cigar Mile. In this race over the dirt, he rated and closed to win --- a repeat puts him in the Winner’s Circle.

    2.   Sunny Ridge (Holy Bull) is the one who will give Mendelssohn the most trouble. He is solid pace runner with a nice closing kick. If Mendelssohn falters or loses a speed duel, this Servis trained colt wins.

    3.   Pat On the Back ((Congrats) is a New York-bred asking to do a lot. Stepping up in class with insufficient speed to be a contender.

    4.   Stan the Man (Broken Vow) likes Aqueduct but is trying a graded race for the first time. In seven starts he never finished out of the money. Getting five pounds from some will help. Could be in the bottom of exotics.

    5.   Copper Town (Speightstown) is the speedster that they all will be chasing. Has already shown he can beat two of these (Patternrecognition and Stan the Man). On the right day, under the right track conditions, he could be in the money.

    6.   True Timber (Mineshaft) will be part of the early pace. Doesn’t look like he can sustain it when they turn for home. Close but no cigar.

    7.   Timeline (Hard Spun) Ran well only to be beaten by 1.5 lengths in the Kelso Handicap (GII) last out. Velazquez replaces Castellano who rides Timeline for Pletcher. Should show up late with a chance to be in the bottom of exotics.

    8.   Patternreconition (Adios Charlie) wired the Kelso Handicap (GII). Trainer Brown goes back to Jose Ortiz hoping to control his speed and hold off late runners. Working spectacularly for his return. 2+ months rest will help. Dangerous.

Mendelssohn drew perfectly and gives his jockey (Moore) the opportunity to go or stay close. At least three to his outside will be pushing the pace. Moore and O’Brien know that Mendelssohn is vulnerable to the speed dual and will try to avoid it. Looking back at their race strategy in the Patton Stakes in March may give us a clue of how this race will unfold for this high-weighted 3-year-old against older.

Although Mendelssohn will be favored with low odds, it appears he is much the best. Staying close and moving in the stretch is his ticket to winning. Sometimes “calk-eating” is the only strategy. The question remains which of the remaining seven will fill-out the exotics. 

Here is how I see it finishing:

     1.   Mendelssohn (#1)

     2.   Sunny Ridge (#2)

     3.   Patternrecogition (#8)

     4.   Stan the Man (#4)

Handigamble Play

$15 Trifecta Key --#1/ #2,#8 and #4 --$90

$10 Exacta  #2/#1