Longshot Specials in Wood Memorial
By: John Caro, S. FL ThoroFan Member
Looks like it’s close to last call for those looking to run
on the first Saturday in May with three top races going this weekend in the
East, Mid-South and the Left Coast.
All have top contenders but the race at Aqueduct looks to
have some special treats for longshot lovers.
If we go back and look at the
recent high class races for three year-olds there have been some great prices
paid. Since the Fountain of Youth, with the exception of the Rebel Stakes, the
favorites did not show up in the exacta and often missed the trifecta all
together. As an example; Plus Que Parfait finished fifth in the LeComte almost
6 behind War of Will as the second betting choice with his best E-Speed at the
time, then finished 13th only to come back 45 days later to win the
UAE Derby at a handsome price with another longshot right behind. And War of
Will? Well he was 9th in the LA Derby.
Almost every race to date since the FOY has been pace
dependent. The best example of that was last week’s FL Derby and the great pace
set by Maximum Security, who by many would not make the distance flat out as is
his style but, Luis Saez had a ‘clock in his head’ and let Max out at a steady
half second faster at each quarter mile and no closer was going to catch that
and pressers would have to make a swift move in the last furlong. It didn’t
happen.
Not to mention Bodexpess’s steady tracking of the leader and nobody
thought he could or would show up but if we go back to look at his last
(shorter) race he handled a hotter pace to finish short by a neck after losing
badly to Hidden Scroll two back.
Think the point is these are all young fellas trying to make
their way and they fail at some point and that’s disappointing for those that
back them, their trainers and jockeys, and their owners but, look at who they
raced against and their pace gives us hope that they might succeed moving
forward.
The ‘Top Picks’
by the odds makers are:
#2-Tacitus (5/2)
Mott/Ortiz, J, - Won last out in the Tampa Bay Derby in front of Outshine and WinWinWin in a closing move along the rail.,
#4-Haikal (7/2)
McLaughlin/ Maragh, R. – Won the one mile Gotham with a closing move. Two
back he beat up on Joevia winning by
a neck.,
#1-Tax (9/2)
Gargan/Alvarado, J – Won the Withers here while pressing, at the distance
and headed Not That Brady for the
trophy with Aqueduct’s 2nd top jockey up.
Interesting to note that the three second place finishers in
the above races were relatively high in price and with the exception of Tacitus the winners were 4-1 or Higher.
The ‘Second Tier’
prices by the odds maker:
#3-Hoffa’s Union
(6-1) Maker/Davis, D. – Speedy maiden winner at Laurel in a short field
going here with Lasix and training well but his pace for his last doesn’t match
the pace he is likely to see here.
#10-Outshine (6-1)
Pletcher/Velasquez, J. – Switches back to Johnny V after missing in the TB
Derby. He can take a swift pace and press along nicely. Great connections and
the jockey has won this race many times.
#5-Final Jeopardy
(8-1) Servis/Franco – Top jockey and top trainer hooking up for this race.
Have the pedigree to go long and he holds a great pace easily. The trainer of
Maximum Security seems to be on a roll, enough said.
And finally, we have
the Longshots:
#6-Overdeliver (20-1)
Pletcher/Carmouche – lost to WinWinWin
last out and beat Bodexpress the
race prior and sired by the Arkansas Derby winner.
#7-Not That Brady
(20-1) Rodriguez/ Gutierrez – Lost to Tax
by a head going to distance then flopped in the Gotham against Haikal.
#11-Joevia (30-1)
Sacco/Juarez, N. – Lost to Haikal
two back by a neck and then tried a route at Laurel chasing Alwaysmining, a four time blacktype
stakes winner.
#8-Grumps Little Tots
(30-1) Servis/Lezcano – Never out of the money in four races and (did I
mention) Jason Servis is the trainer and the colt had never worked more than
four furlongs until prepping for this race.
#9-Math Wizard (30-1)
Joseph/Cancel, E. – This guy was a short price when he faced Maximum Security and has been claimed
in three races prior to exploring the 50k range with his new trainer while
missing by a nose as the favorite. Note that his best pace is about as fast as
anyone in this field.
So on the one hand we have short prices for the top picks
who beat the longshots and a couple of middle odds that have serious talent. I
struggle with the Odds Maker when the short priced horses have just won by
something short of three lengths against very long odds who are running with
them again today.
What to do? Cover the field and play the longshots! Find the
one horse that is best for me (you).
Handi-gambling for
this race
$1 Exacta – All With 5,6,7,8,9,11 $60
$7 Win, $13 Place, $20 Show on #5 Final Jeopardy $40
Alternate bet for those who just want to play one entry (and
I believe the #5 is the best for a wager)
$3 Exacta – 5 (or your top pick) With All $30
$3 Exacta – All With 5 (or your top pick) $30
And the same WPS Bet above for #5 (or your top pick)
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