Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Roar Stakes

Perfect View in the Roar Stakes

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Board Member

Gulfstream Park, the old-boy of fan-less racing, is joined this weekend by another Stronach track, Santa Anita Park, and Churchill Downs. The new editions will, also, race fan-less.

The Roar Stakes at Gulfstream Park is a big race for 3-year-olds who have avoided the Run for the Roses and are competing in spring sprint races. The compact field of six is competitive with all but one having stakes experience. Here is the field:

1.       Ricki Ticki Taffi (Field Commission) has finished in the money on his two stakes’ appearances. He should handle the distances and is quick out of the gate. Keeps Zayas as his pilot. Will push the pace on Gulfstream’s speed favoring dirt oval.

2.       With Verve (Kantharos) won $100,000 stakes race at Gulfstream last out. Two back, he won at 7 furlongs suggesting the distance will suit him. Shows a solid Thoro-Graph figure, which supports his Morning Line odds.

3.       Double Crown (Bourbon Courage) is bred solidly for sprinting. Stepping up in company and gets extra weight from the last race. Is trying the extra half furlong for the first time. May not be fast or classy enough for the distance.

4.       Cajun Casanova (Cajun Breeze) comes off a nice turf win to run on the dirt, an approach that works well for his trainer. Already run four times this year boasting two wins, a second and a 4th. He should be out of the gate fast, but there are questions if he can hold on.

5.       Green Light Go (Hard Spun) is impeccably bred. His sire finished in the money in all three legs of the 2007 Triple Crown and ended that year as Champion Sprinter. Making a huge class drop and trying Lasix for the first time. Has been on the bench for the longest of all in the race (105 days-15 weeks). Concerned about the purpose of this race for this colt and his readiness. Clearly, on paper, the best in the field.

6.       Ournationonparade (Cal Nation) has shown his ability to run at this level and distance. Clipped heels last and threw ridder. He was walked off. Seems like he needs more work before expecting to win.

Analysis:

The numbers point to Green Light Go. However, the class drop, long layoff, and the introduction of Lasix after a career without it give cause for a pause. Ricki Ticki Taffi’s speed from the rail with proven ability at stakes level racing and seven-furlong distance may be hard to catch, albeit not as classy as some of the others. Cajun Casanova will challenge for leadership but does not have stamina as last half-furlong arises. With Verve should be positioned nicely for a spurt in the lane. Should be the first to the wire if the pace remains fast. With four in the field with early speed, it should.

Here is how they should finish:

1.       With Verve (#2)

2.       Ricki Ticki Taffi (#1)

3.       Green Light Go (#5)

4.       Cajun Casanova (#4)

HandiGamble:

$2 Trifecta Box –1,2,4,5 = $48.00

$2 Trifecta Key – (2) (1,4,5) (1,4,5) = $12

$40 Place ----------(#2) = $40