Will Traffic Snarl Maxfield in the Matt Winn?
By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman
The morning line favorite and headliner in the twelve-horse field is Maxfield, owned by Godolphin and trained by Brenden Walsh. Maxfield won the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last fall and after shipping to Santa Anita for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, the colt came up lame and was unable to compete.
In November, Maxfield underwent surgery for an ankle chip and then returned to the racetrack in mid-February to begin workouts. At that point, given the small time-frame allotted to be fully ready for an opportunity at the May ‘Run for the Roses’, the horse, in all probability, would have missed his chance. The postponement of the big race to the first Saturday in September gives his connections more time to prepare him properly.
Recent allowance winner, Pneumatic, from the Steve Asmussen barn and Unbridled Stakes runner-up, Attachment Rate, trained by Dale Romans, are 4-1 co-second choice on the morning line.
Post time for the Matt Winn Stakes, Race 10 on the Churchill card, is slated for 5:44 EST.
Here is the field from the rail out.
PP – Horse - Jockey/Trainer - ML 1 – Mystic Guide – Hernandez/Stidham – 15-1 - Most recently, this colt, also owned by Godolphin, was an impressive maiden winner at Fairgrounds, drawing away to win by five lengths, handling the stretch out from six-furlongs with aplomb. Off that performance, he now faces stakes company. Although it appears an ambitious placement, the colt has the pedigree and may be any kind of runner.
2 – Pneumatic – Santana/Asmussen – 4-1 – Like the one above, this colt was also successful going sprint to route. Recorded back-to-back wins to start his career. Faces his toughest challenge to date here, but his manner of victory last race against a good allowance field indicates there may be more in the tank. Goes out for top connections.
3 – Informative – Bisono/St.Lewis – 20-1 – Twice he has faced graded stakes company and finished far back both times. His one for nine record does not inspire any confidence.
4 – Celtic Striker – Franco/Handal – 20-1 – Colt finished 42 lengths behind last time out in the G3 Gotham over two months ago. In his other stakes appearance, he was defeated by 15 lengths. He’s an outsider who is too slow and is sure to be a pace casualty.
5 – Flap Jack – Bejarano/Sisterson – 20-1 – He has raced well on turf and synthetic, winning the Arlington Washington Futurity as a two-year-old on the latter surface and finishing second on the former. However, he has been unable to finish better than fifth in his dirt races, including two stakes appearances.
6 – Ny Traffic – Lopez/Joseph – 10-1 – The change to the Joseph barn has done this horse a world of good. Started the year with a big allowance win, then put together back-to-back G2 stake place finishes - 3rd in the Risen Star and 2nd in the Louisiana Derby – both from outside posts. Gets a better draw here, has excellent early speed and could be the one to catch.
7 – Necker Island – Gaffalione/Hough – 15-1 - This horse has been non-competitive in three straight races, but he has also suffered bad trips in each, so he really never had any true chance. Even if things go smoothly this time around, he’ll need to get faster to have any shot at hitting the board. That’s not likely to happen.
8 – Crypto Cash – Lanerie/McPeek – 20-1 – Has run on all three surfaces and has performed well on dirt. Never was in the G1 Arkansas Derby where he finished sixth, beaten 10-lengths by Charlatan, but don’t hold that effort against him. Gets a class drop here, but needs to run faster to make any kind of impact.
9 – Shake Some Action – Castellano/Cox – 12-1 – Was steadied early in the G2 Louisiana Derby then caught a wide trip, but he did manage to close from far back to finish sixth, beating half the field. Gets reunited with jockey Castellano, who won on this colt two starts back.
10 – Maxfield – J.Ortiz/Walsh – 5-2 – The race headliner has not raced since early October, but he’s really picked up his training the last few weeks. He is one horse who should really benefit from the later date of the Kentucky Derby. Question here is: Will he be able to duplicate his excellent juvenile form heading into his first race as a sophomore? Obviously, this race is the launching point to Louisville, and although I don’t think he will be fully cranked, he could still get the job done.
11 – Attachment Rate – Velazquez/Romans – 4-1 – Three races back he drew off to win his maiden by six lengths over a sloppy Gulfstream track. He was shipped north to Aqueduct and finished a solid third in the G3 Gotham, then returned to Florida where he was runner-up in the Unbridled Stakes last time out. He will have his work cut out for him from post 11, but his speed figures are competitive and he will be piloted by one of the best.
12 – Major Fed – Rosario/Foley – 5-1 – His graded stakes races have been good, as he was second in the G2 Risen Star two back, and then closed from dead last in the 14-horse G2 Louisiana Derby to finish fourth. In both those efforts, he endured wide trips from better posts than he drew here, so it’s pretty likely another overland journey awaits him. It is tough to back him on the win end from out wide, but an on-the-board finish is possible.
ANALYSIS
Throughout the meet, the Churchill surface has been favorable to frontrunners at 8.5 furlongs. That bodes well for Ny Traffic who should be able to secure the lead and set the pace.
The cutback in distance from his previous two races should certainly help. The other two speedsters, Celtic Strike and Necker Island, both have shown they also need the lead to run their best but don’t appear as fast early as my top pick. Without the lead, both runners have finished off the board multiple times.
The class and speed displayed by Maxfield as a two-year-old towers over the field. Of course, the seven-month layoff is a concern, but the colt has trained splendidly and looks ready for his debut. In addition, trainer Walsh has a high win percentage (20%) with horses returning from extended layoffs of 90 days or more. Jockey Ortiz will need to work out a good trip from post 10, and then hope that his horse’s sustained running style can overcome the pace.
My wagers
$10 Win/Place Ny Traffic (Total $20)
$10 Exacta Box – Ny Traffic/Maxfield (Total $20)
$1.00 Trifecta Wheel – 6,10 with 2,6,10 with 1,2,6,10,12 (Total $12)
Good luck, and as always, enjoy the race!!
No comments:
Post a Comment