Handicapper's Corner: Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes (G1)

Is the Pegasus World Cup a Lock for Accelerate?

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

Frank Stronach had an idea.  Change the name of the Donn Handicap to the Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes, boost the purse to $12 million, and get the horsemen to pay for it. But the Pegasus isn’t just another big race for older horses. Gulfstream Park likes to put on a circus of sorts, fine dining, celebrity party tents, and entertainment, before during, and after the event, much like the Triple Crown races and Breeders’ Cup. 

In only two years, Stronach’s idea has paid off for the track. The Pegasus Stakes has become the most talked about event for older horses.  The contest is televised, and in the last three years, fans have seen heavyweights California Chrome, Arrogate, and Gun Runner. 

The Favorites

This year, the Pegasus drew another full field of twelve. The one receiving most of the attention is recently named 2018 Horse of the Year Accelerate, who breaks from the perfect position of post 5, and has a morning line of 9/5. Last year, the son of Lookin at Lucky won 6 of 7 starts. The only mar on perfection was a neck lost to City of Light in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2).  Accelerate topped off last year with a one-length victory in the Breeders’ Cup Classic over Gunnevera. Accelerate is following in the hoofprints of Arrogate and Gun Runner, both pulled off the Classic/Pegasus double. 

City of Light, the only horse to beat Accelerate last year, drew post 3 and with morning line odds of 5/2.  The free-running son of Quality Road was last seen capturing the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile by 2 3/4-lengths over Seeking the Soul and Bravazo. Normally competing as a sprinter/miler, City of Light stretched out successfully to 1 1/8 miles once in his career, to upset Accelerate. 

Back for More

Two old warriors are back for more. Gunnevera and Seeking the Soul both competed in last year’s Pegasus.  Gunnevera placed third, while Seeking the Soul, stuck in post 11, offered no response in the stretch and finished in fifth place. 

Gunnevera has won or placed in eight of nine starts over Gulfstream Park, his home track. In the last year, he’s finished off the board only once, and that was in the Dubai World Cup. There are two drawbacks for Gunnevera. One is that he draws post 8, and the other is that he is 0-3 at 1 1/8 miles. Post 8 isn’t as much of a concern for the colt’s closing running style, as it would be if he were a pace presser. I’m pretty confident that Irad Ortiz, Jr. can work out the right trip. 

Seeking the Soul is also a one-run stalker, and drew post 4. The six-year-old usually picks up a check; he’s been in the money 17 of 23-lifetime starts. He was last seen finishing third in the Clark Handicap. 

The Invader

Kukulkan is a perfect 14 for 14, including capturing the Mexico Triple Crown. Last December, Kukulkan proved that he could race outside of Mexico and dominated the 1 1/8 mile Caribbean Classic at Gulfstream by 10 1/4 lengths. The drawbacks are post 9 and the big step up in company, but Kukulkan isn’t just some creatively bred Mexican horse. By graded stakes winner Point Determined, he’s out of a daughter of Bernardini, and Kukulkan’s second dam is the grade 1 winning sprinter Mayo on the Side, whose claim to fame was beating 3-time Champ Azari in the Humana Distaff. 

The Youngsters

Three 4-year-olds will try to upset the older horses. Besides Kukulkan, Audible and Bravazo will try to get the job done from opposite ends of the field.

Audible was most recently seen floundering in the mud in the Harlan’s Holiday Stakes. He tried hard but was left with too much to do at the end, settling for second place, beaten only a 1/2 length by Sir Anthony, who had a much better trip. Audible has captured two of three starts at Gulfstream, including last year’s Florida Derby. The colt’s regular rider Castellano is sticking with City of Light, whom he rode to victory in the Breeders’ Cup Mile.  California jock, Flavien Pratt will guide Audible.   

Breaking from post 1, Bravazo gets to take the short way around the track. He was last seen finishing second by a desperate neck in the Clark Handicap. Last year, the colt hit the board in 7 of 11 starts. However, the last time he visited the winner's circle was in the Risen Star Stakes. Still, Bravazo tries hard, and he’s been breezing well.

Out in Right Field

Way out in post 12, Patternrecognition is one of four horses who may vie for the lead or press the pace. On the plus side, the Bay horse is out of the hot Chad Brown barn and will have Jose Ortiz aboard. The duo has teamed for a 38% win rate over the last three months.  On the downside, Patternrecognition will be widest off all around the first turn and have to expend energy to set or press the pace. Additionally, the sprinter/miler is stretching out to 1 1/8 miles for the first time. 

The Underdogs

Tom’s d’Etat is jumping up in class, but this is a horse who likes to win. The son of Smart Strike brings a four-race win streak to the Pegasus, including two victories at 1 1/8 miles. 

True Timber isn’t as accomplished stakes-wise as some of the heavy hitters but did gain ground to finish second in the Cigar Mile last time out. Despite a stamina-oriented pedigree, the son of Mineshaft is 0-2 at 1 1/8 miles and prefers competing as a sprinter/miler. 

The Old Guys

8-year old Something Awesome and 9-year-old Imperative make up the remainder of the field. 

Something Awesome earns a check more often than not and is 2 for 2 at 1 1/8 miles. This old guy can still run. He owns the second-highest late pace speed figure in the field.

In almost every field, there’s one horse who is way out of his league. It seems even the Pegasus Stakes isn’t immune to this factor. At 9 years old, Imperative’s best days are behind him. He’s earned close to 3-million dollars but hasn’t won a race since the 2017 Charlestown Classic. This poor old guy was beaten 20 lengths in his last start, a $62K Optional Claimer at Gulfstream Park. Mr. Paolucci, please do the right thing by this poor old warrior and let him retire with dignity.    

Selections

The one thing anyone knows for sure about racing at Gulfstream Park is that being stuck in an outside post is worse than Miami rush hour traffic in the winter. 

That being said, the two heavy hitters, Accelerate and City of Light have drawn great posts. So, do I go with the flow and pick Accelerate on top? He’s the class of the field and fits right in the likes of Arrogate and Gun Runner.  The two are closely matched, speed figure wise.   

Picking the favorite is boring, so I’m going with City of Light on top. He figures to be close to the pace and can get the jump on Accelerate like he did at Oaklawn Park. 

The only speedball in here is Patternrecognition, and he’ll have his hooves full getting to the lead from the far outside. Gunnevera and Bravazo always run their race, and usually, pick up a check. So does Audible, but I don’t think 1 1/8 miles is his best distance, and despite being a one-run closer, he’s stuck in an outside post and will be wide on the first turn. Kukulkan ran a huge race in the Caribbean Classic. He’s worth a look to hit the board.

 #3 City of Light (5-2)

#5 Accelerate (9-5)

#8 Gunnevera (8-1)

#1 Bravazo (12-1)

Handigambling:

A full field offers plenty of betting opportunities. Here’s how I’ll use ThoroFan’s $100 virtual money.

Straight bets across the board on the “most likely to win” offer no value, so let’s have fun with exotics.

$0.20 Super Key: #3/#1, #5, #6, #8, #9, #10 = $24.00

$0.20 Super Key: #5/#1, #3, #6, #8, #9, #10 = $24.00

$0.20 Super Key: #8/ #1, #3, #5, #6, #9, #10 = $24.00

$0.20 Super Key: #1/ #3, #5, #6, #8, #9, #10 = $24.00

Total bet $96.00 

Handicapper's Corner: LeComte Stakes (G3)

Full Field Wars for 2019 Kentucky Derby Points in LeComte

By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers-Off

This year marks the 75th running of the LeComte Stakes, a race that has held Grade 3 designation since 2003, and been run at distances varying from a mile to a mile and an eighth.  LeComte, by Boston out of the mare Reel, is best known as the only horse to hand Lexington a defeat.  On April 8, 1854, LeComte beat Lexington in two straight four-mile heats, with his setting a new four-mile record of 7 minutes, 26 seconds. LeComte is also a half-brother of another horse whose name lives on as the namesake of a three-year-old stakes race: his dam Reel also produced Prioress, by Sovereign.  Racing from ages two through seven, Prioress was the first American-bred and American-owned horse to win in England, and still has a sophomore fillies' sprint stakes run in her honor at Saratoga.

Though no winner of the LeComte has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby, 2013 hero Oxbow would go on to win the Preakness.  Several other LeComte victors have gone on to Classic placings: No Le Hace (1972) finished second in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, Linkage (1982) finished second in the Preakness, and Hard Spun (2007) finished second in the Kentucky Derby and third in the Preakness.

The 2019 edition of the LeComte drew an overflow field to contend for a $200,000 purse and Kentucky Derby points for the top four finishers (10-4-2-1): 14 horses, plus one also eligible entry. The forecast for New Orleans on Saturday calls for rain through the morning, and wind during the day.  The wind may help dry the track somewhat, but if the forecast holds, it's unlikely the track will be truly fast by the time the dirt stakes roll around.  Thus, it'll be a positive if a horse has off-track form or good slop breeding.

There are a few pace horses, but the sharpest -- Manny Wah and Tight Ten -- are mired to the outside. A wire-to-wire score seems unlikely, but it looks like a good race for a better-drawn horse with some tactical speed to sit the trip and take over. 

And, that's just what War of Will can do.  The son of War Front started his career on the grass, becoming Grade 1 placed as a maiden, but finally got off the mark in a dirt maiden at Churchill Downs on November 24.  He stalked, pounced, and won easily over the sloppy track that day; trainer Mark Casse and owner Gary Barber must be thrilled with the forecast this time. The race was a mile and a sixteenth, so he is proven at two turns.  Tyler Gaffalione misses a day at Gulfstream to reunite with War of Will in the LeComte, another good sign. Though he has been on the shelf since November 24, the work pattern is regular since mid-December, and Casse fires at 17% off similar layoffs.  Add to that Casse's strong start at Fair Grounds, and War of Will is a formidable horse for formidable connections.

Plus Que Parfait will have to overcome an outside gate, but otherwise, there is plenty to like about the son of Point of Entry.  He blossomed in his two most recent races, his only tries going two turns on dirt: he broke his maiden third-out at Keeneland, nosing out another talented one in Harvey Wallbanger, and then fell just a neck shy of the more experienced Signalman in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), his stakes debut.  Plus Que Parfait has shown tactical versatility as well, winning from near the lead in his maiden score, but rallying from near the rear in the Kentucky Jockey Club.  That gives jockey Julien Leparoux options on where to put him, useful when navigating that outside post.

Finally, Tackett intrigues.  Though he makes his first stakes try in the LeComte, he does have the advantage of local form.  The son of Limehouse finished third on debut at Laurel, sprinting on the dirt, and then stretched out to this mile and seventy yard trip at Fair Grounds for a maiden on November 24.  He won on the front end -- and then returned to win a first-level allowance over the same course and distance from a stalking spot.  The one question is the wet track, since he has only run over fast dirt, but the pedigree is there.  (That holds especially true for dam Unostrike, by 19% mud stallion Macho Uno out of a mare who ran well over sloppy footing.)  Tackett's allowance win came with jockey Joe Bravo aboard; Bravo returns to the irons today.  He has been smiling for a lot of win pictures with trainer Mike Stidham in recent times: they're 27% of the last two months with a positive ROI.  If Tackett can take the modest step forward, he needs to run to the best of this company, they may be posing again.

Selections

#8 War of Will (6/1)
#12 Plus Que Parfait (9/2)
#3 Tackett (6/1) 

Longshot:  #7 Roiland (12/1) makes his first start since a credible albeit belated fifth in the Kentucky Jockey Club.  He showed a pattern of being a bit slow at the start at age two, though the addition of blinkers may help him show a bit more early position.  Trainer Tom Amoss is smart about when to add that headgear, as evidenced by his 23% win rate going first-time blinkers.  Amoss is also strong with layoff horses, a 25% winner over the last three years with horses rested 45-90 days. Though Roiland hasn't raced at Fair Grounds yet he has been working there since December, so he has had the chance to settle in.  Finally, the wet track should serve him well: he is by superstar mud sire Successful Appeal, and improved well enough late in the Kentucky Jockey Club last time out to suggest he can handle the surface. 

Handicapper's Corner: Marshua’s River Stakes (G3)

Hot Pace in Marshua's River Could Set Up For Closer

By: John Caro, S. Florida ThoroFan

This contest is over the turf for older fillies and mares going a route. Based on the forecast of rain showers early with some sunshine later in the day, high 76°, winds ESE at 10 to 20 mph, chance of rain 40% the turf may be running with a little cut if the winds don’t dry it out. Should be quite a test given the field and a closing kick may do the trick for this one.

#1 Bellavais (7/2) – Pletcher/Castellano – She is the class of the field with many black type races and some graded stakes at this level. Her posted speeds are good and she travels tracking the pace near the front when doing her best work. She won the Ginger Brew here during her three-year old campaign then moved up to the mid-eastern tracks winning only once over the lawn in 2017 then took a long (mare) break. She was given to Pletcher’s barn and he had her out for a win going a turf mile at Belmont after a year’s layoff with Javier abroad. Another 60 day break and she ran in the My Charmer flattened out to finish forth. Given the connections I have to like this mom but her heart in it? ITM but not the winner.

#2 Hogan’s Holiday (20-1) – Vitali/Reyes – She had two very nice wins at GPW when Reyes put her in a good closing move to take back to back wins at 20-1 and 40-1. Nice paydays. Then she went to the Tropical Parks Oaks (44-1) and nearly got crushed by her neighbors after three steps from the gate as the whole field ran for the first turn and the rail. She was shuffled back further through the turn and had terrible traffic throughout. But, good news, Reyes final move was a good effort and there was nobody in the race that closed quicker, through traffic, losing by 3.5 behind a wall and a very hot pace. If she stays out of trouble and makes that kind of move, she could be dangerous at another huge price.

#3 – Bombshell (6-1) – Delacour/Saez – She is in great form since coming over to Delacour. ITM three for four and three wins with two black type wins with two wins on the turf and a third by a neck as well. I like it. She likes to run near or on the lead which fits Saez to a T and she can be versatile to hang back a bit with the ability to kick late. Given her form, her price and the last statement above, she could well be a win contender.

#4 – Valedictorian (6-1) – Breen/Gaffalione – She dueled hard last time in the Claiming Crown Tiara with G aboard and was over taken by Peru. For those of you have the ability to watch the Tiara, I suggest you do so. It’s likely that this race will pace out very similar. No question that Val can stay with a solid pace and her mid-race speed can press any leader. She holds her form well only missing a first or second finish once in the last seven outings. I expect she’ll be second again given the late or power closers today.

#5 – Rose Tree (20-1) – Sheppard/Hernandez, B Jr. – Bad news, she’s only tried the turf once here for the Tropical Park Oaks when three. Poor speed in that one but a nice closing kick. Good news, Sheppard brings in sneaky good runners and the jockey’s last out with this girl was successful on dirt here. Two bullet works and her record on the AW and a wet track is encouraging. She is a closer. If a hot pace develops, she will be ITM if she handles the grass.

#6 – I’m Betty G (5-1) – Maker/Ortiz, I Jr. – I loved this one when she was at Kentucky Downs and bet her with vigor. Her prior record said she was in top form and looked well. KD racing is a different animal and demands pace awareness at its best. She didn’t have it that day. Since then she has gone out of form and that’s not encouraging even with Irad aboard. She’s done her best on flat tracks going a mile. I just don’t figure her at these odds, or winning. ITM? Maybe, but doubtful. I’d have given her 10 or 12-1 ML.

#7 – La Signare (3-1) – Lynch/Ortiz, J. – This gal is lightly raced but has competed with Grade I company and won in Grade III. Lynch has had her out burning up Palm Meadows lawn five times since the beginning of December. Her last win in the Wonder Again at Belmont against a significant foe was pedestrian through a half. Rosario was putting them to sleep. When the favorite made the move La Signare moved quicker and held. The next race in the Belmont Oaks she was put on the front and was tough through a mile and regressed rapidly. Hopefully, Jose can find a happy medium in her pace. I’d like her on top for this race, but I don’t think she’ll get the luxury of a slow pace.

#8 – Monte Crista (4-1) – Trombetta/Velazquez – I’ve been looking forward to seeing this little girl run. If you haven’t followed along there is an article about her trials and tribulations while at Woodbine and Trombetta’s frustration with a vet check for blood. It’s on the internet. From a form standpoint she is excellent. Don’t let the speed figures confuse you. Take a look at the times and tracks she’s been over. She hot. Throw out the last on the soft going at Belmont…she never got her footing though she has shown she can go over a good turf. She’s won four of six and a third place finish on the lawn and two for two at the distance. She’s out of Cape Blanco so you know where her heart is. Coming down she worked the GP turf twice with a speed work on the dirt as well. She seems to be the most consistent speed and can move to a higher gear. I think Johnny V can work out a trip for her.

Betting – On the face of it La Signare should be on top but the pace of the race is going to be quick and I believe a closer is going to be there at the line.

$2 Trifecta – 3, 8 with 3, 8, 7, 2 with All   $72

$4 Exacta Box – 3, 8, 2     $24

Alternate bet  

$7 Exacta - All with 8    $49

$4 Exacta – All with 2   $28

Take a flyer on the #2…. a 

Handicapper's Corner: Sham Stakes (G3)

More Baffert Babies in the Sham Stakes

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

The Sham Stakes (G3) was named in honor of the 1973 underdog shadowed Secretariat through the Triple Crown series.  The seal brown, well-bred colt finished second to Secretariat in the Kentucky Derby, despite bashing his head against the starting gate so hard he lost two teeth. Sham’s time under the wire was a sub 2:00 and faster than Monarchos' winning time in 2001. In any other year, Sham would have been a Triple Crown winner.  Sham was a superstar in his own right, equaling the track record for 1 1/8 miles in the Santa Anita Derby. 

The 2019 Sham Stakes awards points as a Kentucky Derby qualifier.  Most of the Sham Stakes victors have continued their careers as sprinter/milers. Only two colts have hit the board in both the Sham and the Kentucky Derby; Empire Maker finished second in both races in 2003 and 2005, Giacomo was third in the Sham during his successful trip to Louisville.

This year, seven three-year-old colts will run a mile over the Santa Anita main track. A trio of trainers each brings two colts to the party.

Bob Baffert has conditioned three of the last five Sham Stakes winners. This year, he sends out the much-hyped, even-money favorite Coliseum and Much Better, who switches back to dirt after two turf starts.

Let’s start with Coliseum. The son of Tapit out of the multiple graded stakes-winning sprinter Game Face made his racing debut at seven furlongs. He went gate to wire, striding out to win his debut by 6 3/4-lengths.  Coliseum earned a lofty Brisnet late-pace speed figure of 102.  The pretty gray colt has been firing off solo bullet works like a machine gun. 

Much Better, the other Baffert entry won his debut at 6 1/2 -furlongs on dirt then switched to turf, where he placed second in the Zuma Beach Stakes after a stretch battle.  The son of Pioneerof The Nile had an adventurous trip in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, where he was in tight, bumped and pushed wide. He decided enough was enough and checked in 17 lengths behind the winner.  Like Coliseum, Much Better is out of a graded stakes winning sprinter. Much Better’s breeze pattern is slower than Coliseum’s, but the dark bay colt did fire off two recent back-to-back bullet works.

Trainer Peter Miller also brought a duo of 3-year-olds to the Sham. In his first start for Miller, Gray Magician stretched out to a mile and dazzled with a 9 1/2-length victory over a maiden field at Del Mar, earning a late-pace speed figure of 94. The son of Graydar is out of the stakes-winning miler Burg Berg, and he’s a full brother to last year’s R.B. Lewis Stakes (G3) winner Lombo.  

  

Miller’s other contestant is the game front-runner Savagery. The son of Bellamy Road is the most experienced colt in the field, with six starts under his girth. He placed second in the Sunny Slope and Bob Hope (G3), but raced greenly in the Cash Call Futurity, blowing the first turn while wiping out competitors, lugging in through the stretch, and finally deciding he had enough and backing out of it. Savagery finished fourth but was placed fifth after a DQ.  The cut back to seven furlongs should help.

Keith Desormeaux trains longshots Sueno and Easy Shot. Sueno stretched successfully to a mile in the Gold Rush Stakes at Golden Gate in his first start since August. He draws the golden rail and Keith’s brother Kent switches from regular mount Easy Shot to Sueno. 

Easy Shot is the 30-1 longshot of the Sham Stakes. The son of Trappe Shot showed improvement in his last two starts, high-end maiden claimers, and he won his last at 6 1/2-furlongs. Although he’s kept lesser company, Easy Shot’s late pace speed figures fit with the rest of the field.  In his last breeze, Easy Shot flanked his workmate before drawing off in the lane under mild urging. Bejarano rides for the first time. 

Poor Gunmetal Gray. In his debut,  he was run over by Roadster and finished ten lengths back. Second time out at a mile, the son of Exchange Rate won easily at a mile by 6 3/4- lengths.  Fresh off his maiden score, the pretty gray colt faced Game Winner, and while he wasn’t going to catch his rival, Gunmetal Gray got up for second place. In his last start, the Hollendorfer trainee broke from post 11 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and eventually made his way up to fifth place behind Game Winner. Gunmetal Gray cuts back to a mile and gets a jock switch to Mike Smith. 

Selections:

So, the ultimate question is will Coliseum regress off his huge late pace speed figure? Will he vie for the lead or sit off the pace? Gunmetal Gray is the class of the field, and Mike Smith takes over. He wasn’t going to get close to Game Winner, but he did finish second on the American Pharoah and fifth in a full field in the BC Juvie. Easy Shot is an interesting horse. Yes, he’s been running in claiming races, but the $80K level isn’t much different than a maiden special.

#2 GUNMETAL GRAY (5-2)

#5 COLISEUM (1-1)

#1 SUENO (20-1)

#4 EASY SHOT (30-1)

Handigambling:

Overwhelming favorites do get beat – just look at what happened to Audible in the Harlan’s Holiday Stakes. If you had boxed him with the winner and third place horses, the ones most likely to finish in the money, you would have received a nice payout.  

When there’s an overwhelming favorite in the race and looks better on paper, I like to box them with the horses most likely to benefit if the favorite comes up short.  

$100 virtual ThoroFan currency

$4.00 Super box - #2, #5, #1, #4 = $96.00

 

Handicapper's Corner: Rampart Stakes (G3)

Gearing up for Wet Rampart Stakes

By: John Caro, S. FL ThoroFan Member

Welcome back to Gulfstream. Big stakes day here and Audible will be practicing for the Pegasus in the Harlan’s Holiday. But that’s another story….. The weather is forecast for 40% chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon but, this is Florida, and anything can happen.

We do have a nice field of fillies and a mare going a one turn mile for this contest. Lots of speed looks like the scenario for this running. And recent races here are not being won on the front. Those that can track a fast pace and close from near the front have been the winners. Let’s hope for a safe race.

Electric Forest (3-1) Brown/Ortiz, J.L. – There is no question that the connections are working well with this young filly. She’s two for three and 90+ on her speed going shorter. Ortiz has been aboard for all her starts and has been able to use her tactically should a fast pace be set on the front by others. The stretch-out going one turn should not be a factor given her pedigree.

Tweeting (8/5) Navarro/Jimenez – Navarro has brought a new meaning to winning at Gulfstream as of late. He’s had this filly basking in the Florida sunshine since early November and made six very nice workouts including a 6 furlong drill and a bullet last Sunday. Looks ready to go. Her narrow loss going shorter after a blistering pace may have been a result of a jockey anxious to get the lead too early. Jimenez last ride aboard was a stellar, on the lead, effort winning by 12 against weaker. The only things that concern me is class and off-track conditions. She’s not competed against much stakes company and her last effort on a good track showed regressing speed. Has to be used.

Tapa Tapa Tapa (5-1) Hamm/Castellano – Certainly the one who has seen many stakes races this classy gal was rested for several months and went back on the work tab with a vengeance since mid-October. The last four works are bullets over at Tampa. Have to think she needed a break and is back to challenge. She can go the distance and has proven it. Castellano hasn’t been burning up Gulfstream (yet) but he has won 23 stakes this year and there is no reason he can’t notch another. Longshot play.

Breaking Bread (4-1) Navarro/Jaramillo – Another from the Navarro barn who’s been down here since November and had regular works with two bullets and a mud work. Jaramillo has been working hard to win the jockey title at Gulfstream and although this mare does not play at this level she does like to be in the money. In some regard I like her better than Navarro’s short priced filly.

Tequilita (6-1) Matz/Saez – If track conditions are off, this is my go-to girl for the following: Her recent race in the mud with Saez up was well done. She has good stakes experience. She’s the top money winner in this field. She had nice works to prepare for this race. The other reason is Saez is very hot at Gulfstream. If it’s wet this is the likely winner.

Snirvana (20-1) Biancone/Maragh, R.R. – I’m looking hard at a filly that’s going to try dirt for the first time and has been training on the turf at Palm Meadows? The trainer’s record turf to dirt is 9%. His grades stakes percentage is zero, although the connections did win the black type turf stakes last week. His favorite jockey is up for this test. Wondering if the turf experience will play a role if the track is off? Maybe there is an angle I’ve overlooked, but I can live with it.

Inspeightofyou (20-1) Minott/Panici – Another I’m struggling with as the barn has had her for three weeks, done one work has speed figures that don’t figure and the trainer record in this situation is not encouraging. There is some hope in that her record shows 3 wins in four tries at the distance when training under Tom Amoss at a lower level races and a black type stakes while at Delta Downs. Filler?

Handigambling…. The Value is in the 5 and 3. Play them the way you like. My recommendations are:

It’s expected to be an off track

$3 - Trifecta – 5,3 with 5,3,1,2,4 with 5,3,1,2,4     $72

$10 – Exacta Box – 5 & 3          $20

Fast track?

$5 Trifecta 5,3 w 5,3,1 w all         $100 a 

 

Handicapper's Corner: Harlan's Holiday Stakes (G3)

Audible Deafening Favorite in Harlan's Holiday Stakes

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

The one 1/16-mile Harlan’s Holiday Stakes contested at Gulfstream Park since 2011, attracted a small field of six older colts and geldings.  Todd Pletcher has saddled two winners in the Grade 3 event, Liam’s Map in 2014 and Stanford in 2016. 

This year, Pletcher sends out the swift Audible, and the lesser known Argentinean bred, Village King.   


Let’s review the field.

Contenders

AUDIBLE is a perfect two for two at Gulfstream. After taking the summer off, the bay son of Into Mischief reappeared in the seven-furlong Cherokee Run, besting the field by two lengths. He’ll be the overwhelming favorite and is the class of the field.

After a steady career as a turf router, VILLAGE KING proved to be adept over the fast Aqueduct dirt in the Red Smith Stakes, which was taken off the turf. True, my 95-year-old mother could have run the early fractions faster, and it was painful to watch a bunch of turf horses staggering home over the dirt, but Village King was determined and won by a nose, earning the second highest Brisnet late pace speed figure in the field.  Posts 4 through 7 are winning at 21%. 

APOSTLE gets back to dirt after a failed experiment on the lawn. The very well-bred son of Medaglia d’Oro is a half-brother to multiple G3 stakes winner Carve, and his dam Apt (A.P. Indy) is a half-sister to the champion and sire Blame. Apostle has a later—maturing pedigree and is rounding into form, and he should be forwardly placed.

SIR ANTHONY is looking to make it four in a row in the Harlan’s Holiday. He picks up a check more often than not and has won and placed in state-bred stakes. He’ll make a late run under Brian Hernandez, Jr. and could round out the exotics.

Pretenders

After nine tries this year, MINUTE MADNESS won his last race, a $16K optional claimer at Calder…er.. Gulfstream Park West, his first off the claim for Peter Walder. The last time the hardy five-year-old gelding won was July 2017. Minute Madness has some speed and may show early interest.

SIGHTFORSOREEYES may be winging it on the lead in a race that has little early speed. He sandwiched an allowance win at Thistledown between poor showings in the Vosburgh and Clark Handicaps. I’ve never seen a horse earn a late pace speed figure of “1” until I saw this guy’s past performances. There’s no place to go but up!

SELECTIONS

Did I mention there’s no confirmed pacesetter in here?  AUDIBLE could show speed from the rail, but Castellano will likely be content to track one of the long shots and take over in the stretch. Hard to look beyond him here, as his only losses have come in his debut and the Kentucky Derby, and he was third in both of those races.    

APOSTLE isn’t in Audible’s class – yet, but he’s starting to put it together, and there are no world beaters in this race. If for some reason Audible stubs a hoof, Apostle could be right there. 

SIR ANTHONY will be running late, and he’s been in the money eight of 13 lifetime.   

I’m not totally convinced that VILLAGE KING is a dirt horse. True, he got a triple-digit late pace speed figure in his last race, but it was painful to watch him stagger home in the 1 1/8 – mile race in 1:53. By comparison, Maximus Mischief’s final time in the Remsen was 1:51.34.

#1 AUDIBLE (2-5)

#5 APOSTLE (5-1)

#6 SIR ANTHONY (20-1)

#4 VILLAGE KING (4-1)

Handigambling

A short-priced favorite is beatable if there’s a chink in his armor.  We’ve seen overwhelming favorites come up short in the past, that’s why they run races. That being said, unless Audible is caught flat-footed coming out of the gate, is boxed in and can’t make a run, or just doesn’t feel like running, he’s the likely winner — no money to be made there.   

Either sit back and watch the race or toss your virtual ThoroFan funny money into a superfecta.

$4.00 Super box - #1, #5, #6, #4 = $96.00

The remaining $4 might get you a bottle of water or a program.

 

Handicapper's Corner: Los Alamitos Futurity (G1)

Baffert Aiming for Five Straight Futurity Wins

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

The Los Alamitos Futurity (formerly known as the CashCall Futurity) is the last Grade One race of the year held for two-year-old colts, and the top four will earn points towards a berth in the 2019 Kentucky Derby. 

Since the race’s inception in 1981, 16 colts who hit the board in the Futurity have also run in the money in at least one of the Triple Crown races.  Six won the Kentucky Derby and three each the Preakness and Belmont Stakes. 2014’s Los Futurity hero Dortmund finished third in the 2015 Kentucky Derby.

Bob Baffert has dominated the Los Alamitos Futurity with a record ten victories and has won the last four editions of the 1 1/16-mile race.  This year, Baffert conditions two of the six contenders. IMPROBABLE and MUCHO GUSTO, are lightly raced undefeated stakes winners, both trained by Baffert, and will likely vie for betting favoritism.  

In the one mile Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs on Breeders’ Cup Friday, IMPROBABLE blew away a field of last out maiden winners by 7 1/4 lengths. The son of City Zip isn’t a need the lead type and can press or sit off the pace. The only drawback for the large Chestnut colt is the rail post and the potential of being blocked in by outside speed.

MUCHO GUSTO wired the field in both outings and was last seen defeating SAVAGERY and EXTRA HOPE in the seven-furlong Bob Hope Stakes (G3) at Del Mar. By Mucho Macho Man out of a daughter of Giant’s Causeway, Mucho Gusto should love the extra distance.

After wiring the field by 11 lengths in his maiden victory, SAVAGERY was dueled into submission by graded stakes placed Sparkyville in the Sunny Slope Stakes, then Mucho Gusto did same in the Bob Hope. This time around, trainer Peter Miller takes the blinkers off the son of Bellamy Road in hopes of getting him to relax, and Geroux Florent takes over from Bejarano.

After winning his maiden DUELING was tossed into the deep end of the kiddie pool in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. The longshot ran pretty much as expected, checking in sixth, after being wide the entire way. The Hollendorfer trainee is back in a little bit easier spot and having Mike Smith as a pilot can’t hurt.

The late-running EXTRA HOPE found the Bob Hope Stakes a little too short and gets a chance to stretch back out to 1 1/6-miles. He and Dueling are the only colts in the field with experience at the distance. 

The ironically named KING OF SPEED is a one-run closer who, after a couple of bad beats on dirt at the beginning of his career, found success as a stakes-winning turf sprinter. This is clearly a “what is he thinking” moment for Jeff Bonde. Either that or the connections have caught an early case of Derby fever.

 Selections

78% of the races at Los Alamitos are won by pace setters or pressers, usually from the rail.  The blinkers off on Savagery may be an effort to get him to relax, and his sprint-oriented pedigree makes him vulnerable at the distance. That leaves Mucho Gusto as the lone early speed. Savagery and Improbable won’t be too far off the pace, with Dueling and Extra Hope right behind. King of Speed does his best running late.

I’m sensing a Baffert exacta unless one of his contenders stubs a hoof.

#1 IMPROBABLE (6-5)

#6 MUCHO GUSTO (3-1)

#3 DUELING (6-1)

HANDIGAMBING

Part of being a successful bettor is knowing when to skip a race. Neither of the early favorites seems to have weak spots, and there’s no logical longshot, except maybe for Dueling. Toss a couple of bucks on Dueling if you must bet and if the odds deem it worthwhile.