Friday, March 30, 2018

Handicapper's Corner: Florida Derby (G1)

Nine Hopefuls in Florida Derby

By Mike Mills, ThoroFan Member




Florida Derby winners over the past ten years that have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby include, Big Brown, Orb, Nyquist, and Always Dreaming.  Nine runners will line up for Saturday's running of the Grade I Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park in hopes of following in those big footsteps.




1) Strike Power, ML 4-1
Brings speed to the party from the rail.  Not so sure he wants to go this far being a son of Speightstown.

Lauren King
2) Millionaire Runner, ML 50-1
He is among the most experienced runners in the field with ten starts.  Connections have been pointing this guy too high since his only lifetime win in a $35,000 Maiden Claimer.  Now he is pointed even higher.  Doesn’t belong.


3) Tip Sheet, ML 30-1
With a name like this those of us who write these things should be all over him, but than again let’s not get too desperate.  Another with ten lifetime starts who has been firing to high and goes even higher.  Pass.


4) Promises Fulfilled, ML 3-1
Has most likely already earned a trip to the Derby.  He has done little wrong thus far winning three of four lifetime starts.  Winner of the Fountain of Youth in his last while having things pretty much his own way throughout.  Romans says he will send.  Thinking this guy is going to have a bit more company up front this go around and will need a huge effort to get the win.

Photo: Gulfstream Park
5) Storm Runner, ML 20-1
Romans’ second entrant made his stakes debut in the Fountain of Youth, finishing a tough trip seventh.  Looking for this fellow to present a better accounting of himself here hitting the board at a good price.


6) Catholic Boy, ML 7-2
This will be his second of the layoff for former Pletcher understudy Jonathan Thomas.  May have not been fully cranked up for his return in the Sam Davis last month.  Picks up Irad and projects to fit the flow of the race.  Looking for big effort out of this guy.

7) Hofburg, ML 20-1
Son of leading sire Tapit shows up here for Bill Mott with just two starts winning his maiden earlier in the month over the track.  Should like the distance but the step up from maidens to the Grade I Florida Derby is huge.  Might find useful underneath on the exotic tickets.


8) Audible, ML 9-5
Pletcher’s New York bred has done little wrong in his four-race career, winning his last three, and finishing third in his debut back in September.  Picks up Johnny Velazquez, winner of last year’s race and three other previous Florida Derby’s.  Posted a nice winning running time in the Holy Bull over the strip.  One concern is the post.


9) Mississippi, ML 12-1
Makes his stakes debut following two good runner-up finishes in the allowance ranks over the past two months at Gulfstream.  Projects to like the distance and may show a keener interest in the front with the additional of blinkers for the first time.



The Pick
Looking for Catholic Boy to show up Saturday a bit tighter then he was for his return to racing last month in the Sam Davis at Tampa.  Think he trips out the best in here laying off the speed and getting the first jump heading for home.  The student gets the best of the teacher with Audible second.


The Play $92

$30 winner, $30 place #6, $60

$2 tri 6/1-5-8/1-4-5-8-9, $24

$2 tri 8/6/1-4-5-9, $8

Have a Day

Mike Mills

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