Handicapper's Corner: 2018 Rebel Stakes (G2)

Class is the Key to the Rebel Stakes

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Chairman

The Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park has had its success in sending winners to bigger and better things. Most recently, American Pharoah won the Rebel and catapulted to be the most recent Triple Crown winner in 2015. Curlin won the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes in 2007. Temperance Hill (1980) and Victory Gallop (1998) captured the Belmont Stakes. Pine Bluff, named for an Arkansas town, won the Preakness Stakes. Sunny’s Halo proved himself worthy by picking up the Roses on the first Saturday in May of 1983. There is a good chance history using one of these scenarios will repeat itself this year. 

The field of eleven is varied in class, experience over the track, workouts and rider consistency. Although strictly not outcome factors, these variables may be worth watching. For example, only two horses, Solomini and Sporting Chance, are coming in with a win in a grade one race, giving them a class edge. Will class be the key to the Rebel Stakes? Lets look at the field.

    1. Title Ready ( More Than Ready) seems to be the weakest of the three Asmussen runners entered. The other two are off-the-pace runners, so this one may be the “rabbit” for the other two. Gets seasoned rider. However, Santana, a top Asmussen rider, will ride Combatant. Pass.

    2. Curlin’s Honor (Curlin) has the right bloodlines. His sire won this race, as well as, the Arkansas Derby, the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes. Working nicely. First attempt in graded company. May need this prep over the Oaklawn surface to be ready for the next step –Arkansas Derby. With top jockey, Geroux, could be in the exotics.

    3.   Solmini (Curlin) is another Curlin offspring with a proven record. Ran second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and stands out among most of these. Although layoff is not a major problem for Baffert trainees, three months away from competition could hurt. Odds board may tell.

    4.   Magnum Moon (Malibu Moon) is working nicely, however making a big step forward. Does not seem like Pletcher’s Derby horse.  Watch.

    5.   Higher Power (Medaglia d’Oro) is familiar with the Oaklawn surface. But long layoff may be a problem. Not today, maybe looking for the runner-up $3000 share of the purse and experience.

    6.   Pryor (Paynter) just broke his maiden; now trying graded company. Takes shot with new jockey Albarado. He is the real early speed and may try to steal a piece on the speed-favoring Oaklawn stretch. Or he may back all the way up. Just watch, unless odds are stratospheric. Then consider using in lower part of exotics.

    7.   Sporting Chance (Tiznow) is the winner of the grade one Hopeful Stakes last year at Saratoga. He is working nice and gets the services of Velazquez which may tell it all. Has trip over track, albeit when it was muddy and he was bumped. He is a real contender.

    8.   High North (Midnight  Lute) was solidly beaten in the Risen Star last month. Showing little  improvement from 2017 to 2018, even with top jockeys. Maybe in it for the “also ran money”. Pass.

    9.   Zing Zang (Tapit) is an Asmussen runner who faltered in the Southwest Stakes, maybe because of the muddy track. Keeps jockey Lanerie. Should be closing if the pace is fast. Showing improvement. Maybe an exotic play.

    10.Combatant (Scat Daddy) is Asmussen’s best chance to win. Uses one of his favorite jockeys over the Oaklawn track, Santana. Closed nicely on speed favoring track in the Smarty Jones in January. Last race rallied five wide for second. Will be in the money.

   11.Bode Maker (Bodemeister) has local connection and is trying graded company for the first time. Doesn’t appear fast enough to compete with others. Pass.

This race will be determined by pace. Pryor, Sporting Chance, Solomini, Magnum Moon and Title Ready have all shown serious front running styles. All but Pryor seem to prefer to sit just of the pace for a stretch run. In that group Solomini and Sporting Chance are the class and the most dangerous. Solomini is coming out of a Key Race in December. Combatant could be a serious closer, if the speed collapses. 

Here is how I think they may finish:

1.   Solomini (#3)

2.   Combatant (10)

3.   Sporting Chance (#7

4.   Zing Zang (#9)

5.   Curlin”s Honor (#2)/ Pryor (#6)

Handigamble of $100—

1.   $30 to Win and $30 to Place on Solomini (#3) = ($60)

2.   $3 Trifecta Key #3/7, 9,10/2,6,7,9,10  = $36*

(*$4 for a beverage to celebrate)