Handicapper's Corner: Dubai World Cup (Group 1)

West Coast Class in Dubai

By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers Off

This year marks the twenty-third edition of the Carnival's flagship race, the Dubai World Cup.  It offers a rich $10,000,000 purse, more than any race on Earth save the Pegasus World Cup.  Originally run over the dirt at Nad Al Sheba, it was moved to the Tapeta when Meydan opened in 2010.  

The very first World Cup in 1996 saw Cigar score the fourteenth of sixteen consecutive victories.  Cigar is not the only Hall of Fame inductee to have won the Dubai World Cup during his career: Silver Charm (1998), Invasor (2007), and Curlin (2008) have also emerged victorious in Dubai's biggest race.  All of those horses won the races in its days on the dirt. 

 

During the Tapeta era, 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom (2013).  In 2015, Meydan switched back from Tapeta to dirt.  Though Meydan local Prince Bishop won the first over the new dirt surface, American horses won the next two.  In 2016, California Chrome joined Animal Kingdom and Silver Charm in the club of horses who have won both the Kentucky Derby and the Dubai World Cup.  Last year, Arrogate notched the final victory of his short, brilliant career in the race.  

Here's the field for this year's Dubai World Cup.

 

Trainer Bob Baffert remarked this week that the Dubai World Cup  would give West Coast some class relief -- after all, he won't be chasing Gun Runner around.  This space agrees and finds it hard not to like him on top here.  Baffert knows how to pick good horses to send to Dubai, and West Coast fits this spot like a glove.  He has been able to carry his form to multiple tracks, and he has proven mile and a quarter stamina.  West Coast's running style also fits beautifully: he can lead if the race demands it, but he more typically stalks.    Speed can be quite good, but with North America likely to go from inside, the ability to stalk should pay dividends.  West Coast looks like the total package here: stamina, class, and a conditioner who knows the Dubai World Cup winners' circle well.  He'll be a short price but oppose him at your peril. 

This is Dubai, and it's hard to talk about Dubai without mentioning who wears the Godolphin blue.  They send a pair out here: Thunder Snow from the barn of Saeed bin Suroor, and Talismanic from the Andre Fabre yard.  Thunder Snow is well proven on the dirt, but it looks like 2000 metres may be a little long for him.  

On the other hand, Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) winner Talismanic is trying dirt for the first time and has some upside.  Not only is his breeding all class, but he has some strains of solid dirt acumen, being by Medaglia d'Oro out of a Machiavellian mare.  (Machiavellian, of course, sired Street Cry -- sire of Zenyatta, Street Sense, and Street Boss.)  He has a relatively forward running style; though he won't be on the lead, if he handles dirt as well in the afternoon as he does in the mornings, he has a chance to keep them in range and not leave himself too much to do late.  Add in the fact that Talismanic has the stamina to get this distance, he looks the most likely to pose a threat for the home team. 

West Coast isn't the only horse here from the Bob Baffert barn – he also sends Mubtaahij out from his California base.  The son of Dubawi comes to the Dubai World Cup off a rather strange run in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1), a race in which it was unlikely on paper that he'd set the early fractions, but he did.  That is a positive suggestion that Mubtaahij will stay relatively forward in this race, and not leave himself too much to do late.    Though there's always a bit of a question with a horse who ships out to Dubai when the trainer has called an audible?  Baffert knows this race well enough to trust him in that move, especially when he's sending a horse with proven form over both the Meydan dirt and the 2000-metre trip.  As the Baffert "B", Mubtaahij presents a fair chance at a fair price.

Selections:

#9 West Coast

#7 Talismanic

#5 Mubtaahij

Longshot:  Several others in this field would be no surprise to see in the trifecta or superfecta: Gunnevera or Forever Unbridled may clunk up for a share, Thunder Snow may stay on for a piece, and even Furia Cruzada has been in decent form. 

But, from the perspective of finding a potential longshot winner?  There's an old saying, speed is its own bias.    #2 North America  won the local prep for the Dubai World Cup, the Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3 (G1) on Super Saturday.  The race covers the same course and distance as the Dubai World Cup, 2000 metres over the Meydan dirt.  That day, under rider Richard Mullen, he quickly cleared to the front, leaving Thunder Snow in a futile chase down the lane.  Speed held very well that day, par for the course on Super Saturday.  But, the way the Dubai World Cup drew?  The only one who stands to try to keep him honest up front is West Coast.  Should West Coast choose to rate, or if he has some trouble at the break, or runs into some traffic trying to get in from that outside gate?  Then, North America may have things well enough for long enough on the front to remain a factor late.