West Coast Class in Dubai
By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers Off
This year marks the twenty-third edition of the Carnival's
flagship race, the Dubai World Cup. It
offers a rich $10,000,000 purse, more than any race on Earth save the Pegasus
World Cup. Originally run over the dirt at Nad Al Sheba,
it was moved to the Tapeta when Meydan opened in 2010.
The very first World Cup in 1996 saw Cigar score the fourteenth
of sixteen consecutive victories. Cigar
is not the only Hall of Fame inductee to have won the Dubai World Cup during
his career: Silver Charm (1998), Invasor (2007), and Curlin (2008) have also
emerged victorious in Dubai's biggest race.
All of those horses won the races in its days on the dirt.
During the Tapeta era, 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom
(2013). In 2015, Meydan switched back
from Tapeta to dirt. Though Meydan local
Prince Bishop won the first over the new dirt surface, American horses won the
next two. In 2016, California Chrome
joined Animal Kingdom and Silver Charm in the club of horses who have won both
the Kentucky Derby and the Dubai World Cup.
Last year, Arrogate notched the final victory of his short, brilliant
career in the race.
Here's the field for this year's Dubai World Cup.
Trainer Bob Baffert remarked this week that the Dubai World Cup
would give West Coast some
class relief -- after all, he won't be chasing Gun Runner around. This space agrees and finds it hard not to
like him on top here. Baffert knows how
to pick good horses to send to Dubai, and West Coast fits this spot like a
glove. He has been able to carry his
form to multiple tracks, and he has proven mile and a quarter stamina. West Coast's running style also fits
beautifully: he can lead if the race demands it, but he more typically
stalks. Speed can be quite good, but
with North America likely to go from
inside, the ability to stalk should pay dividends. West Coast looks like the total package here:
stamina, class, and a conditioner who knows the Dubai World Cup winners' circle
well. He'll be a short price but oppose
him at your peril.
This is Dubai, and it's hard to talk about Dubai without
mentioning who wears the Godolphin blue.
They send a pair out here: Thunder Snow from the barn of Saeed bin
Suroor, and Talismanic from the Andre Fabre yard. Thunder
Snow is well proven on the dirt, but it looks like 2000 metres may be a
little long for him.
On the other hand, Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) winner Talismanic is trying dirt for the first
time and has some upside. Not only is
his breeding all class, but he has some strains of solid dirt acumen, being by
Medaglia d'Oro out of a Machiavellian mare.
(Machiavellian, of course, sired Street Cry -- sire of Zenyatta, Street
Sense, and Street Boss.) He has a
relatively forward running style; though he won't be on the lead, if he handles
dirt as well in the afternoon as he does in the mornings, he has a chance to
keep them in range and not leave himself too much to do late. Add in the fact that Talismanic has the
stamina to get this distance, he looks the most likely to pose a threat for the
home team.
West Coast isn't the only horse here from the Bob Baffert barn –
he also sends Mubtaahij out from his
California base. The son of Dubawi comes
to the Dubai World Cup off a rather strange run in the Santa Anita Handicap
(G1), a race in which it was unlikely on paper that he'd set the early
fractions, but he did. That is a
positive suggestion that Mubtaahij will stay relatively forward in this race,
and not leave himself too much to do late.
Though there's always a bit of a question with a horse who ships out to
Dubai when the trainer has called an audible?
Baffert knows this race well enough to trust him in that move,
especially when he's sending a horse with proven form over both the Meydan dirt
and the 2000-metre trip. As the Baffert
"B", Mubtaahij presents a fair chance at a fair price.
Selections:
#9 West Coast
#7 Talismanic
#5 Mubtaahij
Longshot: Several others in this
field would be no surprise to see in the trifecta or superfecta: Gunnevera or Forever Unbridled may clunk up for a share, Thunder Snow may stay on for a piece, and even Furia Cruzada has been in decent form.
But, from the perspective of finding a potential longshot
winner? There's an old saying, speed is
its own bias. #2 North America
won the local prep for the Dubai World Cup, the Al Maktoum Challenge
Round 3 (G1) on Super Saturday. The race
covers the same course and distance as the Dubai World Cup, 2000 metres over
the Meydan dirt. That day, under rider
Richard Mullen, he quickly cleared to the front, leaving Thunder Snow in a
futile chase down the lane. Speed held
very well that day, par for the course on Super Saturday. But, the way the Dubai World Cup drew? The only one who stands to try to keep him
honest up front is West Coast. Should West
Coast choose to rate, or if he has some trouble at the break, or runs into some
traffic trying to get in from that outside gate? Then, North America may have things well
enough for long enough on the front to remain a factor late.
