Friday, March 24, 2017

Handicapper's Corner: Dubai World Cup (G1)

Is Dubai World Cup the Pinnacle of Arrogate's Career?

By: John Caro, S. FL ThoroFan Member

DUBAI WORLD CUP – Meydan - 1 and ¼ Miles - $10M

Dubai is the stage for the world’s best racing with all the major players in the world at one time in a variety of races with this race as the finale.

I have studied all the tea leaves, the Brisnet, Timeform, the national and international press, watched videos till my eyes got tired, and consulted with anyone who knows anything about racing and there is no doubt about the favorite and who will win, #9-Arrogate.  I figured I wouldn’t bother with a supreme being consult as I’m sure they have more pressing matters. I have sent a message for all the contestants to be safe for the race.

Since his lone defeat as a maiden, Arrogate has progressed to the pinnacle of racing, and for those who missed his last race, I’m sorry for you. He is every bit as advertised and names like Secretariat, Cigar, and Rachel Alexandra all come to mind when I watch him run. I don’t doubt that there are others in the field for today’s race that are every bit as competitive at this track at this level of competition, but I don’t find one that I would put ahead of Arrogate. Ridden by “Big Money Mike,” to quote Mr. Baffert, Arrogate is tactical with his speed, has a good engine, and plenty in the tank going home.
If there is anyone out there that has a different winner, please raise your hand and be heard.

I love to watch great horses run and win but my betting is based on ROI and some profits from the wagers. I approached this as if Arrogate was not running today to determine who I would pick as my contenders, and to sort out who I think can reasonably win, place and show. Below are my picks to contend in order of my preference.

#1 Apollo Kentucky – rested, good going in his last left handed run, very nice record.

#12 Hoppertunity – rested, Baffert, Prat, great record.

#13 Special Fighter – This is his home track, excellent record at the distance.

And a tie; #2 Long River – based on his last outing and style and #14 Mubtaahij – stalwart contender, back at home, good last time out.

Wagers – I will not play Arrogate to win other than cheering him to the finish.
$ 7 Trifecta - 9 with 1, 12 with 1, 12, 13, 2, 14
If you’re feeling good about it and have $$$ to spend you could play a Superfecta – 9 with 1, 12, 13, with 1, 12, 13, 2, 14 with 1, 12, 13, 2, 14 (or hit all)

There are two other races on the card with possible longshots that have my interest.

Race 1 - #10 Etijaah – rested, cutting back to a mile, a very smooth mover, the #1 international jockey is aboard, Crowley

Race 6 - #11 St. Joe Bay – fast, oh, did I mention he is fast. Put him on top of the #1, 14, & 7 might be a pretty good day.

No comments:

Post a Comment