Friday, March 23, 2018

Handicapper's Corner: 2018 Louisiana Derby (G2)

Louisiana Derby - Big Prep, but Not Easy

By: Laurie Ross, IMTBreds


Since switching dates and stretching the distance to 1 1/8 miles, the Louisiana Derby has become a big prep race for the Kentucky Derby. The Grade 2 contest is the first qualifying race to award 100 points to the victor. Second place earns 40 points, third receives 20 points, and the fourth-place finisher gets 10 points.


Although the last horse who exited the Louisiana Derby to wear Kentucky Roses was Funny Cide (2003) the last seven editions of the Fair Ground’s main event for three-year-old males has produced 6 of the last 18 trifecta placings in the Kentucky Derby and five placings in the Preakness and Belmont Stakes.  

The 2018 Louisiana Derby field attracted ten colts; The top three finishers in the Risen Star, Bravazo, Snapper Sinclair, and Noble Indy will be joined by Southwest Stakes hero My Boy Jack. The rest of the field includes Givemeaminit and Retirement Fund, who were unplaced in the Risen Star and Southwest, respectively, plus allowance runners Hyndford, Lone Sailor, and Dark Templar. A maiden, Marmello, is cross-entered in a maiden race on the undercard.

In the Risen Star, Bravazo dueled every step of the way with Snapper Sinclair. Now they’re adding an additional 1/2 furlong. It may not seem like much, but nine furlongs separates the sprinter-miler types from the middle distance – classic types. 

Risen Star replay:


 The Favorites
I have a ton of respect for Snapper Sinclair. He looks other horses in the eye and refuses to give way. His nose-bob second place finish in the Risen Star was a win in my book.  That being said, the son of City Zip is out of a Yes It’s True mare – sprinter/miler breeding on both sides of his pedigree. Snapper Sinclair isn’t a speed freak, and he’ll rate, but 1 1/8 miles seems a bit too far for the game Asmussen trainee.  I’ll include him in the exotics, though.

On the other hand, Bravazo, by Awesome Again out of a Cee’s Tizzy mare, is bred and built for classic distances. He has similar breeding to 2013 Preakness Stakes winner Oxbow, who just so happened to be conditioned by Wayne Lukas and piloted by Gary Stevens. The pair team up here with Bravazo.  This colt is just coming into his own. The distance will be perfect for him, but how hard did he have to run in the Risen Star? He won both starts this year by a neck and nose, and his speed figures improved slightly. Lukas gave the colt two bullet pre-race breezes. Will this set the colt up for victory in the Louisiana Derby, or will the colt regress? Guess we’ll find out, but certainly keep him in your wagers for the top spot.

My Boy Jack’s rails skimming Southwest Stakes victory over a muddy track brought back memories of Exaggerator and Mine That Bird. The extra half furlong should help the late-running son of Creative Cause. My Boy Jack’s second dam won at 1 1/8 miles and placed at 1 1/4 miles. The Desormeaux brothers are local boys, and neither has won the Louisiana Derby. How special would that be for these two hardworking horsemen?  My Boy Jack is a late-running closer in a race filled with speed and pace pressers. His main obstacle will be that Bravazo could get the jump on him. Don’t leave him out of your win wagers.

Worth a Bet
Noble Indy played in traffic for most of the Risen Star and lacked running room in the stretch. He had his own private war going with Instilled Regard and held third by a neck. The rest of the field was backing up, and no one was challenging. By Florida Derby hero Take Charge Indy, this Todd Pletcher trainee should handle 1 1/8 miles. The dark bay colt gets a shiny new set of blinkers to see if it helps him focus better.  Noble Indy won his first two starts easily before his two-length defeat in the Risen Star. He’ll get another class test here. Could he win? Anything’s possible in a race, but I’m going to put him in my exotics.

Hyndford is the other Pletcher trainee. He was last seen giving way to stablemate Magnum Moon in an allowance race at Tampa Bay Downs. That one returned to capture the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn. By Street Cry out of a Candy Ride mare, Hyndford has the pedigree to handle Triple Crown distances and to improve with maturity. His BRIS speed figures indicate that he’s not quite ready for prime time, but at 8-1, he’s worth a look for an exotic wager.

Look Like Longshots
Retirement Fund switched up his pace-setting running style for the Southwest Stakes, this time racing behind the speed on the outside of the pack. He made a mild mid-race move but retreated when the real running began. He loves the Fair Grounds dirt and son of Eskendereya should handle the distance, but will he be part of a possible contentious pace? I’m not dipping into my IRA for a win bet. Exotics, maybe.

Dark Templar is a pricy son of Tapit out of a great-granddaughter of Champion Personal Ensign. He beat Lone Sailor last out but was bested by Retirement Fund the previous race. The Louisiana Derby is his first foray into stakes class racing. He’ll need to step up his game but could figure in lower exotics.

Givemeaminit Lone Sailor and Marmello appear up against it.

Selections
The track bias in the Louisiana Derby is…there is no track bias! Over the last ten years, pacesetters, one run closers and everything in between has been successful. However, horses within two lengths of the lead have been the most effective.

At least three to four colts will want to be on the lead or press the early pace, which would set up the race just fine for My Boy Jack. He’ll have 1,346 feet of stretch to mow them down. Don’t fall off Kenty D!  I like Bravazo too. He has the best pedigree of the pacesetting crowd to hang on for the victory. Flip a coin between these two for the win spot.

1st - #9 My Boy Jack (5-2)
2nd - #1 Bravazo (7-2)
3rd – #2 Noble Indy (7-2)
4th – #7 Snapper Sinclair (9-2)

Handigambling
The most likely winners in this race are all fairly short-priced odds, so is the risk worth the reward? Only if one of the long shots gets brave on the front end or the race falls apart.
$100 ThoroFan Virtual Dollars
$2 Superfecta Box - #9, #1, #3, #4 = $24
$4 Across the board (win/place/show) with odds of 4-1 or greater - #5, #6, #10 = $36
Dinner or drinks in New Orleans = $60

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