Louisiana Derby - Big Prep, but Not Easy
By: Laurie Ross, IMTBreds
Since switching dates and
stretching the distance to 1 1/8 miles, the Louisiana
Derby has become a big prep race for the Kentucky Derby. The Grade 2 contest is
the first qualifying race to award 100 points to the victor. Second place earns
40 points, third receives 20 points, and
the fourth-place finisher gets 10 points.
Although
the last horse who exited the Louisiana Derby to wear Kentucky Roses was Funny
Cide (2003) the last seven editions of the Fair Ground’s main event for three-year-old males has produced 6 of the last
18 trifecta placings in the Kentucky Derby and five placings in the Preakness
and Belmont Stakes.
The 2018 Louisiana
Derby field attracted ten colts; The top three finishers in the Risen
Star, Bravazo, Snapper Sinclair, and Noble Indy will be joined by
Southwest Stakes hero My Boy Jack. The
rest of the field includes Givemeaminit and Retirement Fund, who were unplaced in the Risen Star and Southwest,
respectively, plus allowance runners Hyndford,
Lone Sailor, and Dark Templar. A maiden, Marmello, is cross-entered in a maiden race on the undercard.
In the Risen Star, Bravazo dueled every step of the way with Snapper
Sinclair. Now they’re adding an additional 1/2 furlong. It may not seem like much,
but nine furlongs separates the sprinter-miler types from the middle distance –
classic types.
Risen Star replay:
Risen Star replay:
The Favorites
I have a ton of respect for Snapper Sinclair. He looks other horses in the eye and refuses to give
way. His nose-bob second place finish in the Risen Star was a win in my book. That being said, the son of City Zip is out
of a Yes It’s True mare – sprinter/miler breeding on both sides of his
pedigree. Snapper Sinclair isn’t a speed freak, and he’ll rate, but 1 1/8 miles
seems a bit too far for the game Asmussen trainee. I’ll include him in the exotics, though.
On the other hand, Bravazo,
by Awesome Again out of a Cee’s Tizzy mare, is bred and built for classic
distances. He has similar breeding to 2013 Preakness Stakes winner Oxbow, who
just so happened to be conditioned by Wayne Lukas and piloted by Gary Stevens.
The pair team up here with Bravazo. This
colt is just coming into his own. The distance will be perfect for him, but how
hard did he have to run in the Risen Star? He won both starts this year by a
neck and nose, and his speed figures improved slightly. Lukas gave the colt two
bullet pre-race breezes. Will this set the colt up for victory in the Louisiana Derby, or will the colt regress? Guess we’ll find
out, but certainly keep him in your wagers for the top spot.
My Boy Jack’s rails skimming Southwest Stakes victory
over a muddy track brought back memories of
Exaggerator and Mine That Bird. The extra half furlong should help the late-running son of Creative Cause. My Boy
Jack’s second dam won at 1 1/8 miles and placed at 1 1/4 miles. The Desormeaux brothers are local boys, and neither has
won the Louisiana Derby. How special would that be for these two hardworking horsemen? My Boy Jack is a late-running closer in a
race filled with speed and pace pressers. His main obstacle will be that Bravazo could get the jump on him. Don’t leave him out
of your win wagers.
Worth a Bet
Noble Indy played
in traffic for most of the Risen Star and lacked running room in the stretch.
He had his own private war going with Instilled Regard and held third by a
neck. The rest of the field was backing up, and no one was challenging. By
Florida Derby hero Take Charge Indy, this Todd Pletcher trainee should handle 1
1/8 miles. The dark bay colt gets a shiny new set of blinkers to see if it
helps him focus better. Noble Indy won
his first two starts easily before his two-length defeat in the Risen Star. He’ll
get another class test here. Could he win? Anything’s possible in a race, but I’m
going to put him in my exotics.
Hyndford
is the other Pletcher trainee. He was last seen giving way to stablemate Magnum
Moon in an allowance race at Tampa Bay Downs. That one returned to capture the
Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn. By Street Cry out of a Candy Ride mare, Hyndford has
the pedigree to handle Triple Crown distances
and to improve with maturity. His BRIS speed figures indicate that he’s not
quite ready for prime time, but at 8-1, he’s worth a look for an exotic wager.
Look
Like Longshots
Retirement Fund switched up his pace-setting running style for the
Southwest Stakes, this time racing behind the speed on the outside of the pack.
He made a mild mid-race move but retreated when the real running began. He
loves the Fair Grounds dirt and son of Eskendereya should handle the distance,
but will he be part of a possible contentious pace? I’m not dipping into my IRA
for a win bet. Exotics, maybe.
Dark Templar is a pricy son of Tapit out of a great-granddaughter of Champion Personal Ensign. He beat Lone
Sailor last out but was bested by Retirement Fund the previous race. The Louisiana
Derby is his first foray into stakes class racing. He’ll need to step up his
game but could figure in lower exotics.
Givemeaminit Lone Sailor and Marmello appear up against it.
Selections
The
track bias in the Louisiana Derby is…there is no track bias! Over the last ten
years, pacesetters, one run closers and
everything in between has been
successful. However, horses within two lengths of the lead have been the most effective.
At
least three to four colts will want to be on the lead or press the early pace,
which would set up the race just fine for My
Boy Jack. He’ll have 1,346 feet of stretch
to mow them down. Don’t fall off Kenty D!
I like Bravazo too. He has the best pedigree of the pacesetting crowd to hang on for the victory.
Flip a coin between these two for the win
spot.
1st
- #9 My Boy Jack (5-2)
2nd
- #1 Bravazo (7-2)
3rd
– #2 Noble Indy (7-2)
4th
– #7 Snapper Sinclair (9-2)
Handigambling
The
most likely winners in this race are all fairly short-priced odds, so is the
risk worth the reward? Only if one of the long shots gets brave on the front
end or the race falls apart.
$100
ThoroFan Virtual Dollars
$2
Superfecta Box - #9, #1, #3, #4 = $24
$4 Across
the board (win/place/show) with odds of 4-1 or greater - #5, #6, #10 = $36
Dinner
or drinks in New Orleans = $60
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