California Fillies Dream of Oaks Points in Santa Ysabel Stakes
By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers-Off
The Santa Ysabel
Stakes will be run for the 49th time this year.
Except for a seven-furlong edition in 1970, the race has been run at a mile and a sixteenth since its inception in
1968. To date, no winner of the Santa
Ysabel has gone on to win the Kentucky Oaks, but its winners' roll features
some accomplished race mares. Sharp Cat (1997) won twelve graded stakes
races between the ages of two and four, including a walkover victory in the
1997 Bayakoa Handicap (G2). Sweet
Catomine (2005), the Eclipse winner for Champion Two-Year-Old Filly the year
before, began her three-year-old season with a victory in the Santa Ysabel.
Santa Ysabel winners
of the last three years have gone on to win Eclipse Awards. Stellar Wind (2015) made her stakes debut in
the Santa Ysabel. She won and followed it up with a win in the Santa
Anita Oaks (G1). Though she finished
fourth as the favorite in the Kentucky
Oaks, two more graded stakes wins plus a
game second in the Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1) were enough for her to secure the
Three-Year-Old Filly championship.
The next year's
winner, Songbird, also went on to win the Santa Anita Oaks. Though she missed the Kentucky Oaks, she
finished her year with wins in the Summertime Oaks (G2), Coaching Club American
Oaks (G1), Alabama (G1), and Cotillion (G1), and then finished a nose second to
Beholder in the Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1).
That carried her to the Three-Year-Old Filly Eclipse. Last year's winner, Unique Bella (G1), also
missed the Kentucky Oaks, but a season that concluded with a victory in the La
Brea (G1) proved enough to clinch the Female Sprinter Eclipse.
Santa Ysabel Stakes
(G3), three-year-old fillies, one and one-sixteenth
miles on the dirt, post time 3:00 PST
Midnight Bisou and
Dream Tree are a bit of a 1-1A here in preference: it's difficult to split the
two, and in a multi-race ticket, this space would be comfortable going two deep
to this pair.
Midnight Bisou gets the top billing here only because she
stands to be a sliver better price than Dream Tree. Yes, Midnight Bisou does have tables to turn,
as Dream Tree nosed her out both in her maiden debut and in the Desi
Arnaz. However, when Midnight Bisou
switched to Mike Smith in the irons for the Santa Ynez (G2), a race Dream Tree
sat out, Midnight Bisou responded emphatically.
She beat seven outmatched horses -- and, quite positively for this
short-field race, she was able to sit closer to the pace under Smith than she
had before. That is a positive given
this field of just six; she won't be on the front end, but she'll be close
enough not to leave herself too much to do late. As long as Midnight Bisou can handle a mile
and a sixteenth -- something her pedigree suggests she should do -- she should
have a major win chance here.
The other top
contender here, of course, is Dream Tree. She does have two two-turn races under her;
she won both the Starlet (G1) and the Las Virgenes (G2) by open lengths. Midnight Bisou did not contest either of
those races, however; Dream Tree beat short fields of overmatched fillies in
both of those starts. Here, the only
filly who has been able to keep her honest returns. But, with Drayden Van Dyke back in the irons,
tactical speed, and proven route form, it would hardly be a surprise to see
Dream Tree stretch her record to five-for-five.
With Thirteen Squared going blinkers-off,
there is a good possibility Spring Lily
is left to set the pace: a positive in a short field, and a positive at Santa
Anita. The daughter of Union Rags led at
every call going six and a half furlongs last out
and drew off to win easily. That was her
second career start, but her first with rider Evin Roman in the irons; Roman
returns here. It was also her first
since moving to the John Shirreffs barn.
This will be Spring Lily's first route try, but her pedigree suggests
she can handle it, and Shirreffs is solid with first-time routers. Spring Lily does get a hike in class here,
facing winners for the first time. But,
with a tactical advantage and some upside stretching out, she appeals the most
among the rest of the field.
Selections:
#3 Midnight Bisou (7/5)
#6 Dream Tree (6/5)
#2 Spring Lily (4/1)
No comments:
Post a Comment