Handicapper's Corner: Santa Ysabel Stakes (G3)

California Fillies Dream of Oaks Points in Santa Ysabel Stakes

By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers-Off

The Santa Ysabel Stakes is the third of four Kentucky Oaks points races run during the winter meet at Santa Anita.  The series started with the one-turn Santa Ynez (G2) on January 2 and then stretched out to a mile for the Las Virgenes (G2) on February 6.  This race covers a mile and a sixteenth, the same distance as the Santa Anita Oaks (GI) on April 9.  It offers a purse of $100,000, as well as Road to the Kentucky Oaks points (50-20-10-5) for the top four places.

The Santa Ysabel Stakes will be run for the 49th time this year.  Except for a seven-furlong edition in 1970, the race has been run at a mile and a sixteenth since its inception in 1968.  To date, no winner of the Santa Ysabel has gone on to win the Kentucky Oaks, but its winners' roll features some accomplished race mares.  Sharp Cat (1997) won twelve graded stakes races between the ages of two and four, including a walkover victory in the 1997 Bayakoa Handicap (G2).  Sweet Catomine (2005), the Eclipse winner for Champion Two-Year-Old Filly the year before, began her three-year-old season with a victory in the Santa Ysabel.

Santa Ysabel winners of the last three years have gone on to win Eclipse Awards.  Stellar Wind (2015) made her stakes debut in the Santa Ysabel.  She won and followed it up with a win in the Santa Anita Oaks (G1).  Though she finished fourth as the favorite in the Kentucky Oaks, two more graded stakes wins plus a game second in the Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1) were enough for her to secure the Three-Year-Old Filly championship.

The next year's winner, Songbird, also went on to win the Santa Anita Oaks.  Though she missed the Kentucky Oaks, she finished her year with wins in the Summertime Oaks (G2), Coaching Club American Oaks (G1), Alabama (G1), and Cotillion (G1), and then finished a nose second to Beholder in the Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1).  That carried her to the Three-Year-Old Filly Eclipse.  Last year's winner, Unique Bella (G1), also missed the Kentucky Oaks, but a season that concluded with a victory in the La Brea (G1) proved enough to clinch the Female Sprinter Eclipse.

Santa Ysabel Stakes (G3), three-year-old fillies, one and one-sixteenth miles on the dirt, post time 3:00 PST

Midnight Bisou and Dream Tree are a bit of a 1-1A here in preference: it's difficult to split the two, and in a multi-race ticket, this space would be comfortable going two deep to this pair.

Midnight Bisou gets the top billing here only because she stands to be a sliver better price than Dream Tree.  Yes, Midnight Bisou does have tables to turn, as Dream Tree nosed her out both in her maiden debut and in the Desi Arnaz.  However, when Midnight Bisou switched to Mike Smith in the irons for the Santa Ynez (G2), a race Dream Tree sat out, Midnight Bisou responded emphatically.  She beat seven outmatched horses -- and, quite positively for this short-field race, she was able to sit closer to the pace under Smith than she had before.  That is a positive given this field of just six; she won't be on the front end, but she'll be close enough not to leave herself too much to do late.  As long as Midnight Bisou can handle a mile and a sixteenth -- something her pedigree suggests she should do -- she should have a major win chance here.

The other top contender here, of course, is Dream Tree.  She does have two two-turn races under her; she won both the Starlet (G1) and the Las Virgenes (G2) by open lengths.  Midnight Bisou did not contest either of those races, however; Dream Tree beat short fields of overmatched fillies in both of those starts.  Here, the only filly who has been able to keep her honest returns.  But, with Drayden Van Dyke back in the irons, tactical speed, and proven route form, it would hardly be a surprise to see Dream Tree stretch her record to five-for-five.

With Thirteen Squared going blinkers-off, there is a good possibility Spring Lily is left to set the pace: a positive in a short field, and a positive at Santa Anita.  The daughter of Union Rags led at every call going six and a half furlongs last out and drew off to win easily.  That was her second career start, but her first with rider Evin Roman in the irons; Roman returns here.  It was also her first since moving to the John Shirreffs barn.  This will be Spring Lily's first route try, but her pedigree suggests she can handle it, and Shirreffs is solid with first-time routers.  Spring Lily does get a hike in class here, facing winners for the first time.  But, with a tactical advantage and some upside stretching out, she appeals the most among the rest of the field.

Selections:

#3 Midnight Bisou (7/5)

#6 Dream Tree (6/5)

#2 Spring Lily (4/1)

Handicapper's Corner: Busher Stakes

Busher Stakes Fillies Face a Wet Track

By: Michael Mills, ThoroFan Member

Aqueduct’s 39th running of the Busher Stakes is for 3-year-old fillies will be contested at One Mile on Saturday. From the weather forecasts It appears the girls will face some sort of wet track, most likely a sloppy one.  As such my selections factor in a wet surface.

The Field

1)      Sara Street looks to bring speed to the heat, something she has shown in her 2-life time starts.  The daughter of Street Sense looks to stretch out to this one turn mile from her 6.5 furlough maiden score just short of 30 days ago.  The rail and the distance raise questions.

2)      War Heroine ships in from the West Coast for Peter Miller.  Winner of her last, the Sweet Life Stakes on Santa Anita’s downhill turf course, and she also brings Grade 2 experience with her.  Looks to also have speed.  Not very confident her nice effort in her last is going to translate well at the Big A with       the added distance and wet footing.

3)      Midnight Disguise a NY Bred won the Busanda Stakes in January at Aqueduct going 1 1/8 mile.  While she has a win and a second placing at the mile distance she appears to be one that is at her best at the longer distance.

4)      Youvegottopaytopla comes in from Mahoning Valley having won her career debut last month.  Winning time was slow.  Nice breeding but looks to be asking too much too fast.

5)      Blue Union Rags is the most experienced filly in the field with 6 life time starts with her maiden win in her last.  The well-traveled miss, five different tracks in the six starts, and two different surfaces, would have to step up her game big time to complete here.

6)      Gypsy Janie brings three life time wins with her, one win was two starts back on an Aqueduct track labeled good.  In her last race Gypsy ran a nice second in the mud.  Looks to rate just off the pace and should have no problem with the wetness and distance.

7)      Shamrock Rose ships in from Woodbine with a Stakes win in her maiden voyage in the Ontario Debutante and has Grade 3 experience while finishing second in the Mazarine two back.  Has yet to compete on the dirt and hasn’t raced since the end of October.

8)      My Miss Lilly returns to New York following a nice run in the Forward Gal (G3) at Gulfstream the beginning of February.  She won her debut in December at Aqueduct in on a sloppy sealed track at six furloughs.  I like this miss from the outside in the slop.

The Play

$40 Win & Place #8........In the exotics will be mixing the 8 with the 2-3-6-7

Have a Day.

Handicapper's Corner: Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2)

Eight Fillies Seeking Superheroine Status in Rachel Alexandra

By: Michael Mills, ThoroFan

Eight 3-year-old fillies make up the field for the Grade II $200,000 Rachel Alexandra Stakes to be run at one-mile-and-a-sixteenth at the Fair Grounds Saturday. The Rachel Alexandra Stakes is named in honor of the 2009 Horse of the Year who was simply outstanding as a 3-year as she claimed victory in the Gr. I Kentucky Oaks, and Grade I victories in Preakness Stakes, the Haskell Invitational and the Woodward Stakes (all against the boys).  Is there another Rachel in the making here?

Saturday’s race appears to have a great deal of pace with several speed types signed on leading me to believe the victress with come from off the pace.

#8 Monomoy Girl, 8-5 on the morning line, got a two-turn race under her belt last out in the Gr. II Golden Rod Stakes setting the pace but getting beat on the wire.  Should be on or near the pace, but not sure this girl really wants to go beyond one mile.

#4 Wonder Gadot, 4-1, with 6-lifetime starts has already earned 14 points toward a run in the Kentucky Oaks and will be looking to sit just off the pace with Johnny V in for the ride.

#3 Classy Act, 6-1, will have the services of jockey Javier Castellano for the first time.  She has a win over the track, speed to get into the running right away, and is breed to enjoy the distance.

#2 Testing One Two, 6-1, the Louisiana bred filly is looking for her 4th straight victory.  Two back she relished the one-mile distance winning by 16 lengths.  This filly just might be the real deal, and an anticipated quick pace may be to her advantage.

The Pick

#2 Testing One Two……. from off the pace…. would love to get 6-1 but thinking the price will be much lower.

#8 Monomoy Girl……. hangs on for second

The Plays

$40 Win and Place #2

$5 EB 2/3/8

Have a Day!

Handicapper's Corner: Silverbulletday Stakes

Fair Grounds Fillies vie in Silverbulletday Stakes

By Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers-Off

The series of Kentucky Oaks prep races at Fair Grounds begins with the Silverbulletday Stakes. The race was instituted in 1992 and originally named after Tiffany Lass, who is now the namesake of a different stakes at Fair Grounds. It was renamed in 2010 to honour Silverbulletday, who had been inducted into the Hall of Fame the previous year. 

Silverbulletday was the American Champion Two Year Old Filly in 1998, and then the American Champion Three Year Old Filly in 1999. Though Silverbulletday did not contest this race (then known as the Tiffany Lass Stakes), she decisively won two Kentucky Oaks prep races at the Fair Grounds in 1999: the Davona Dale Stakes (G3) and the Fair Grounds Oaks (G3).  She did win the Kentucky Oaks in 1999, as well as the Black-Eyed Susan, the Alabama, and the Gazelle.

One filly has won the Silverbulletday on the way to a Kentucky Oaks victory: Believe You Can, who kicked off her three-year-old campaign here, and also won the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) on her path to Kentucky Oaks glory.  I'm a Chatterbox, who won the Silverbulletday two years ago, went on to sweep the entire series of Oaks preps at the Fair Grounds, finish third in the Kentucky Oaks, and win the Grade 1 Cotillion at age three.  Another notable winner of this race is 2004 winner Lotta Kim.  She never raced again after winning this race, but she produced 2009 Kentucky Oaks hero Rachel Alexandra.

Race 7: Silverbulletday Stakes, three-year-old fillies, one mile and seventy yards on the dirt, post time 4:05pm CST

This year's Silverbulletday drew a competitive field of twelve to vie for a $150,000 purse, as well as Kentucky Oaks points (10-4-2-1) for the top four finishers.  Wonder Gadot, cross-entered in the Lecomte, is likely to stay with fillies here; however, only eleven are expected to race, as Stellar Moon  is expected  to run in a one-other-than on January 19 instead.

Though the race drew several marquee shippers who we'll tackle later, we'll tab on top a runner who is trying stakes company for the first time, but boasts Fair Grounds affinity and solid Fair Grounds connections: America's Tale.  The daughter of Gio Ponti tried two turns on dirt for the first time on December 17, and romped in the Fair Grounds slop.  Regular rider Brian Hernandez, who has taken the call for all but one race of her career, returns to ride the Bernie Flint trainee.  Though the risk is that America's Tale might be a slop monster, she also has a resounding maiden special weight victory over fast dirt at Churchill, as well as a pair of second-place finishes on fast dirt before she got her diploma.  Her running style should also suit the race: she is a forward-style runner going long, but showed last out that she can sit just off the pace if the likes of Wonder Gadot or Noblame grabs the front end instead.

Blonde Bomber has not raced since the Breeders' Cup, but comes into the Silverbulletday off a regular set of works since late November.  A big worry going to Del Mar was whether the daughter of Fort Larned was just a Gulfstream Park Horse as her first six starts came down there, but she took the move and the class rise well and finished third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1).  That race was also her first two-turn test, a test she passed.  Blonde Bomber has the tactical versatility to run well from just off the pace or from well off it -- a positive, since there are a few horses who can be forward, but no cluster of one-way speed likely to burn each other out and cause a true pace collapse.

Trainer Mark Casse sends a classy one-two punch of Wonder Gadot and Heavenly Love.  It would be no surprise to see either of them do well, but both will be short prices.  Heavenly Love is a tougher read, and a bit less trustworthy at a short price.  Her Alcibiades (G1) dazzled, but her Breeders' Cup was not good.  She still hast to answer the question of which one is the real Heavenly Love.  3/1 on the morning line seems short; should she drift up to 5/1, she becomes intriguing, but it would be a surprise to see her at such a good price. 

For a shorter-priced horse to use defensively, Wonder Gadot has a bit more allure.  She not only held up a lot better in the Breeders' Cup than her stablemate, but followed that up with a comfortable cruise in the Demoiselle (G2) a month later.  She should be part of the front vanguard here, but with a stalking gear, Wonder Gadot is unlikely to be truly burned up in that role.  It's also a positive to see that John Velazquez is shipping out to stick with her; Velazquez first took the call with her in the Demoiselle, and the fact that he's leaving New York suggests he thinks she is the real deal.  It's hard not to trust his judgment, and Wonder Gadot can't be left off even at a short price.

Selections:

#6 America's Tale (8/1)

#1 Blonde Bomber (7/2)

#2 Wonder Gadot (2/1)

Longshot:  #9 Missive (15/1) makes her first foray into stakes company, and does have some tables to turn on top choice America's Tale.  Yet, she is still lightly raced compared to many of her foes -- with only four starts behind her, she has plenty of room to improve.  The mile and seventy yards at Fair Grounds should suit her, as well - she broke her maiden over that course and distance on a fast track, then finished second in a lst-out allowance in the mud.  Missive's tactical speed is a major positive.  So are her human connections: trainer Mike Stidham has been winning almost a quarter of the time this meet, and Missive keeps 30% Fair Grounds rider Joe Bravo from her last two starts.