Gunning for value in the Delaware Oaks
By: Laurie Ross, ThoroFan handicapper
The $300,000 Delaware Oaks (G3) tops Saturday’s stakes-filled card that also includes the Robert G. Dick Memorial (G3) and the listed Delaware Derby.
Nine 3-year-old fillies line up for the 1 1/16 mile event, which is carded as race 11 of 12 with a 6:00 PM ET post time.
Let’s review the most likely board hitters.
Jumping the Gun (8-1) fought the entire way in the 1 1/8 mile Black-Eyed Susan (G2) before the favorite My Miss Mo rebuffed her bid. The Andrew Simoff trainee should be able to save some ground with a rail trip; she drew outside for her last two starts. Delaware is Jumping the Gun’s happy place she has won three of four starts. She cuts back in distance and is making her third start off the layoff. Win Contender.
Sneaky Good (5-1) is living up to her name. She’s been knocking at the door and just missed by 3/4 length in the 7-furlong Beaumont (G2) over the Keeneland Mud. Her third-place finish in the Honeybee was a key race; the top six to run back from it include two winners, three runners-up, and the fourth-place finisher in the Kentucky Oaks. The Brad Cox trainee can sit behind a projected quick pace and hopefully gain that elusive stakes victory. Win Contender.
Pashimina (3-1) is another need-the-lead type. She made the pace in the 1 1/8 mile Gazelle (G3) while going wide, but was green in the stretch, shying from the crop around the 1 1/16 mark, then hopped the tracks forty yards from the wire. Despite her antics, she was beaten only 1 1/4 lengths by Always a Runner, who won the Kentucky Oaks in her next start. The Rob Atras trainee faded to eleventh in the Oaks while racing three wide and outside her customary pacesetting position. Like Dazzling Dame, Pashimina hasn’t been able to sustain her stretch drive yet, but she can handle the distance. Last year’s Delaware Oaks winner Fondly was eleventh in the Kentucky Oaks and won at Delaware in pacesetting fashion. Exotics.
Dazzling Dame (5-1) pressed through fast early fractions in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) before fading late. The confirmed pacesetter did the same in the Virginia Oaks, pressing a quick early pace, but Bottle of Rouge flew by and opened up by 4 1/4 lengths, while Dazzling Dame settled for best of the rest. This Brittany Russell trainee hasn’t won beyond a mile. With other speed in the race, the best hope is to hang on for a minor award. Exotics.
Luv Your Neighbor (2-1) has run some very good races, but she can’t get the job done. She’s a polite filly and lets others go first, including her last start, where she made a strong stretch move but hung like a cheap dress. Count her most likely to finish second. Exotics.
Analysis
Previous Starts: Only two 9 of the last 15 Delaware Oaks heroines won their last start, only two placed worse than fourth.
Run Style: Pace pressers and closers are the most successful. Four pacesetters got the job done.
Favorites: Bet the favorite, only one has placed worse than fourth. However, the last three years favorites placed second or third.
Post Position: Post position isn’t a factor, and four won from the rail.
The pace projects quick early fractions, which should set up for a presser. There are no confirmed one-run closers in the field.
Jumping the Gun loves Delaware, gets to take the short way around, and has tactical speed. She’s a value play at 8-1.
Luv Your Neighbor also in class, but owns just one win in eight starts, with five second-place finishes. Not a good win bet at 2-1.
Sneaky Good enters for the power team of Cox and Irad Ortiz, Jr. she also has tactical speed and is also dropping in class. Anything close to 5-1 is a gift.
Pashimina and Dazzling Dame could grab minor awards.
Selections
1 Jumping the Gun (8-1)
7 Luv Your Neighbor (2-1)
9 Sneaky Good (5-1)
2 Pashimina (3-1)
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