Friday, March 30, 2018

Handicapper's Corner: UAE Derby (Group 2)

UAE Derby Has Longshot Potential

By: John Caro, S. FL Thorofan Member




This is a Kentucky Derby qualifier race for international 3 year-olds going longer. Today’s race has got two short-priced favorites that have shown their abilities at Del Mar and Meydan. The rest of the runners should not be overlooked as they each bring special talents to the race.






#5 Gold Town (6/5) – Won going away last out in the 2K Guineas at this track in a one turn mile and his last 500 meters was done in about 29 seconds. Swift feet. I understand why he gets the short price after winning his last three and he’s competed at the top tracks in England. Breeding suggests distance will not be an issue. My only concern is he is untested at two turns. He’ll take a lot of money and pay out might be pretty short.

#4 Mendelssohn (5/2) – Winner in his last two including the Patton Stakes in Ireland and BC Juvenile Turf at a mile on the grass at Del Mar last fall. No doubt he likes to run and likes it near or on the lead in the videos I watched. O’Brien and Ryan Moore are a tough crew and a winning combination many times. I like the fact that he has been a world traveler. It shows his ability to adapt to new situations. This fella has only gone on the grass until his last race on synthetic. Questions: Will he get the lead? Will he battle with the other favorite? He’s gone two turns at Del Mar but, will it translate to the dirt? I like the odds. Not the questions.

Okay I’m over the favorites. On to the very interesting competition trying to upset the top two.

Aiden O’Brien brings his other two runners #9 Threeandfourpence (10/1) and #6 Seahenge (15/1) who finished second and third respectively behind Mendelssohn in the Patton Stakes. There was no contest after they reached the stretch though Threeandfourpence kept on. Both have raced at the Grade I level at Newmarket in the Darley finishing fourth and third respectively. Good performers but seem to lack the ability to finish under pressure. Not on my likely upset candidates.

Let’s talk American. The only USA entry is #3 Reride (12/1) and an interesting way to the KYD. Winner of the Mine That Bird Derby at Sunland going 1-1/16th this Candy Ride colt is looking pretty logical since he won dueling with the 4/5 favorite by two lengths who was last week’s winner of the Sunland Derby. Don’t know he traveled well to Dubai but I suspect that the trainer who took Gunrunner there knows how to get it done. His record of four wins in five outings combined with Castellano aboard gives me confidence he is an upset candidate.

#1 Rayya (10/1) – I like to see a girl running with the boys who has already qualified for the KY Oaks, gone the distance at this track in good time winning the UAE Oaks by 3+, has been in first or second in every race here at her home track and Pat Dobbs is her only jockey….sorry boys but I think we have some competition from the inside post in a race where the run to the first turn is very short. She left from the one hole last time, went to the lead and set good pace. As she rounded the last turn put away her competition by three and held that margin while gaining to finishing the last 500 meters in 29 seconds. Plenty of energy left in the tank. Just like this one and look forward to seeing her in the KY Oaks.

#7 Yulong Warrior (15/1) – This Street Cry guy has done well in Dubai with his two wins in three races. His last was at today’s distance at a time that was faster the Rayya from the same post and pretty much the same style in the lead against lesser. Winning the race by eleven and the last 500 meters in 29 as well shows another who could make the pace impact on the two favorites.

#8 Taiki Ferveur (20/1) – This is the kind of horse that makes me love longshots in a race where there is so much pace it could break down and be won by a closer who just flies. He’s proven himself at a mile and an eighth. He finished second from well back, stuck on the rail while going out wide around nine others in the Hyacinth Stakes in Japan. The video is most impressive and should be watched on YouTube if you have time. He is the #2 horse. I think he is number three on Japan’s runners for the KYD. The thing that’s most interesting is the jockey, Joao Moreira. He currently rides the Hong Kong circuit but is called upon by the top Japan trainers for special races. They don’t call him ‘Magic Man’ for nothing….see his Wiki or get up early and watch him race at Happy Valley. Sneaky good jockey.


Last we have the horse that worked had in the Hyacinth Stakes and showing well against a great pace but was passed easily by the one above. #2 Ruggero (30/1) – A nice colt who has a decent record but doesn’t appear capable for this competition but doesn’t miss by much. The jockey change may help.


How to play this one? There seem to be some options to parlay some money. When I see high numbers in the odds that intrigue me I usually play a safety Exacta or my version of the bet. It’s relatively cheap given the return. It worked well in the FOY at Gulfstream a few weeks back and might be the ideal play for this one. I don’t think we can discount the favorites and I’m hoping the money spreads out a little and can get in the 8/5 and 9/5 range for the ML favorites. And maybe the others go up as the money piles in on the favs.

Exacta Box for $2 – 1, 3, 7, 8 - $24
Safety Exacta Key $6 – 4, 5 with 1, 3, 7, 8 - $48
As noted above I’m in favor of a true longshot that closes in a high paced race. The #8 is my pick.
Exacta Key $4 – 1, 3, 4, 5, 7 with 8 - $20
Win $8 on the 8
Bonus bets:
Pick 3 starting this race – 1, 3, 7, 8 with 10 with 2, 6, 9  $12
Pick 4 starting this race - 1, 3, 7, 8 with 10 with 2, 6, 9 with 2, 9  $24
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