UAE Derby Has Longshot Potential
By: John Caro, S. FL Thorofan Member
This
is a Kentucky Derby qualifier race for international 3 year-olds going longer.
Today’s race has got two short-priced favorites that have shown their abilities
at Del Mar and Meydan. The rest of the runners should not be overlooked as they
each bring special talents to the race.
#5 Gold Town (6/5) – Won going away last out in the 2K
Guineas at this track in a one turn mile and his last 500 meters was done in
about 29 seconds. Swift feet. I understand why he gets the short price after
winning his last three and he’s competed at the top tracks in England. Breeding
suggests distance will not be an issue. My only concern is he is untested at
two turns. He’ll take a lot of money and pay out might be pretty short.
#4 Mendelssohn (5/2) – Winner in his last two including
the Patton Stakes in Ireland and BC Juvenile Turf at a mile on the grass at Del
Mar last fall. No doubt he likes to run and likes it near or on the lead in the
videos I watched. O’Brien and Ryan Moore are a tough crew and a winning
combination many times. I like the fact that he has been a world traveler. It
shows his ability to adapt to new situations. This fella has only gone on the
grass until his last race on synthetic. Questions: Will he get the lead? Will
he battle with the other favorite? He’s gone two turns at Del Mar but, will it
translate to the dirt? I like the odds. Not the questions.
Okay
I’m over the favorites. On to the very interesting competition trying to upset
the top two.
Aiden
O’Brien brings his other two runners #9
Threeandfourpence (10/1) and #6 Seahenge (15/1) who finished second and
third respectively behind Mendelssohn in the Patton Stakes. There was no
contest after they reached the stretch though Threeandfourpence kept on. Both have raced at the Grade I level at
Newmarket in the Darley finishing fourth and third respectively. Good
performers but seem to lack the ability to finish under pressure. Not on my
likely upset candidates.
Let’s
talk American. The only USA entry is #3
Reride (12/1) and an interesting way
to the KYD. Winner of the Mine That Bird Derby at Sunland going 1-1/16th
this Candy Ride colt is looking pretty logical since he won dueling with the
4/5 favorite by two lengths who was last week’s winner of the Sunland Derby.
Don’t know he traveled well to Dubai but I suspect that the trainer who took Gunrunner there knows how to get it
done. His record of four wins in five outings combined with Castellano aboard
gives me confidence he is an upset candidate.
#1 Rayya (10/1) – I like to see a girl running with
the boys who has already qualified for the KY Oaks, gone the distance at this
track in good time winning the UAE Oaks by 3+, has been in first or second in
every race here at her home track and Pat Dobbs is her only jockey….sorry boys
but I think we have some competition from the inside post in a race where the
run to the first turn is very short. She left from the one hole last time, went
to the lead and set good pace. As she rounded the last turn put away her competition
by three and held that margin while gaining to finishing the last 500 meters in
29 seconds. Plenty of energy left in the tank. Just like this one and look
forward to seeing her in the KY Oaks.
#7 Yulong Warrior (15/1) – This Street Cry guy has done well
in Dubai with his two wins in three races. His last was at today’s distance at
a time that was faster the Rayya
from the same post and pretty much the same style in the lead against lesser.
Winning the race by eleven and the last 500 meters in 29 as well shows another
who could make the pace impact on the two favorites.
#8 Taiki Ferveur (20/1) – This is the kind of horse that
makes me love longshots in a race where there is so much pace it could break
down and be won by a closer who just flies. He’s proven himself at a mile and
an eighth. He finished second from well back, stuck on the rail while going out
wide around nine others in the Hyacinth Stakes in Japan. The video is most
impressive and should be watched on YouTube if you have time. He is the #2 horse.
I think he is number three on Japan’s runners for the KYD. The thing that’s
most interesting is the jockey, Joao Moreira. He currently rides the Hong Kong
circuit but is called upon by the top Japan trainers for special races. They
don’t call him ‘Magic Man’ for nothing….see his Wiki or get up early and watch
him race at Happy Valley. Sneaky good jockey.
Last
we have the horse that worked had in the Hyacinth Stakes and showing well
against a great pace but was passed easily by the one above. #2 Ruggero
(30/1) – A nice colt who has a decent record but doesn’t appear capable for
this competition but doesn’t miss by much. The jockey change may help.
How
to play this one? There seem to be some options to parlay some money. When I
see high numbers in the odds that intrigue me I usually play a safety Exacta or
my version of the bet. It’s relatively cheap given the return. It worked well
in the FOY at Gulfstream a few weeks back and might be the ideal play for this
one. I don’t think we can discount the favorites and I’m hoping the money
spreads out a little and can get in the 8/5 and 9/5 range for the ML favorites.
And maybe the others go up as the money piles in on the favs.
Exacta Box for $2 – 1,
3, 7, 8 - $24
Safety Exacta Key $6 –
4, 5 with 1, 3, 7, 8 - $48
As noted above I’m in
favor of a true longshot that closes in a high paced race. The #8 is my pick.
Exacta Key $4 – 1, 3, 4,
5, 7 with 8 - $20
Win $8 on the 8
Bonus bets:
Pick 3 starting this
race – 1, 3, 7, 8 with 10 with 2, 6, 9
$12
Pick 4 starting this
race - 1, 3, 7, 8 with 10 with 2, 6, 9 with 2, 9 $24
a
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