Thursday, April 5, 2018

Handicapper's Corner: 2018 Ashland Stakes (G1)

Ashland Stakes - A "Threepeat" for Cory

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Chairman



The Ashland Stake has a varied history of different distances, surfaces and age conditions. Yet over the years it has been a very important race for fillies to show their abilities on the track. When you think of the Ashland Stakes you must think of great ones like ---Go For Wand, Inside Information, Silverbulletday and Take Charge Lady ---all who won the race and went on to make names for themselves in the sport and the breeding shed.


This year’s race features seven fillies hoping someday to have their names associated with the aforementioned fillies. The national weather service forecasts a 40% change of precipitation on Friday night with a 70% chance (snow) on Saturday. Track condition may be a major factor in this race. So, our handicapping will have to consider that possibility.



Let’s look at the field:
    1.   Monomoy Girl (Tapizar) comes off two very nice grade-two-races at the Fair Grounds and Churchill Downs. She owns solid Beyer figures for this distance.  Her rail position may force her to get in the game sooner than she would like. Unlike a couple others in the race who may like a wet track, she has no experience running over one. She will have to be in the race from the beginning. Can she hold on for a piece?

   2.   Eskimo Kisses (To Honor and Serve) has experience racing on the Keeneland track; one of two that have. She gets a new jockey, Cory Lanerie, who has won the last two runnings of this race (2016, 2017). Can he “Threepeat”? With some early speed in this race, his off the pace style will help. If the weather continues as forecasted, he will benefit from the off track. A contender from off the pace, come rain or shine.

    3.   Patrona Margarita (Special Rate) is working nicely but may be outclassed. She is one hoping for a dry day. Keeps jockey Hernandez. May surprise for a piece of exotics which may help her with qualifying points to get into the Kentucky Oaks. Risky. Use only at the bottom of a ticket.

    4.   C.S. Incharge (Take Charge Indy) is trying graded stakes level for the first time, although showed well in $100K race. Gets hot jockey Saez back after a nice win over sloppy track at Gulfstream Park with him up. Maybe not fast enough but could hold the lead over a wet track…maybe right to the wire.

    5.   Andina Del Sur (Giant’s Causeway) has had previous races on the turf. Turf to dirt % for trainer is low, however her dirt works offer hope. Keeps trainer’s regular jockey, Leparoux. If wet her turf experience may be comforting. Not sure, may surprise for a piece.

    6.   Ipanema Beach (Candy Ride) is still a maiden and asking her to break it in grade one race is a stretch. Has worked and raced over the Keeneland surface, so may feel a little more at home than others. Needs a lot of help to be a factor. However, new blinkers will not be enough.

    7.   Tyfosha (Flatter) gets top jockey Irad Ortiz. Broke her maiden in January but hasn’t shown much since. Will likely go for the lead out of the gate setting a fast pace with C.S. Incharge. Could be in the money, then again, maybe not.


Selections
There are number of ways to evaluate this race. With C.S.Incharge and Tyfosha on the lead and Monomoy Girl pushing from the one hole, the race could belong to the best closer. If the track is wet with a lot of “kick-back” into the faces of these youngsters, it may be a 2 horse race gate-to-wire. It is possible that Tyfosha doesn’t take to the track leaving C.S. Incharge to control the race over a wet track which she should like. In this scenario, slop-experienced Eskimos Kisses will be coming with a burst down the stretch. I like this last scenario and think Eskimos Kisses is the better of the two mud horses. Here is how I think will finish:

      1.   Eskimo Kisses (#2)
      2.   C.S. Incharge (#4)
      3.   Monomoy Girl (#1)
      4.   Andina Del Sur (#5)

Handigamble Play for $100
      1.   $20 Exacta Box: Eskimo Kisses (#2 and C.S. Incharge (#4) = $40.00
      2.   $5 Trifexta Key: Eskimo Kisses (#2) over Monomoy Girl (#1), C.S. Incharge (#4), Patrona Margarita (#3) and Andina Del Sur (#5) = $60.00
Good luck but keep the day job!
 

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