Arkansas Derby Last Chance for Romance
By: Laurie Ross, IMTBreds
The
Arkansas Derby (G1) is the last major prep race for 2018 Kentucky Derby
Contenders. True, the Lexington Stakes, run on the same day, will offer minor
qualifying points, but Oaklawn Park’s Grade 1 event will be the make or break
race for those looking to solidify their position on the Derby
leaderboard.
Nine colts led by Rebel Stakes (G2) hero Magnum Moon will enter the starting gate for the 1 1/8 mile contest.
The Favorites
Magnum Moon — he’s passed every test and can sit on or off the pace. By Malibu
Moon out of an Unbridled’s Song mare, the Pletcher trainee shouldn’t have an
issue with 9F, but I didn’t like how he was all over the track at the end of
the Rebel Stakes, bearing out, then moving back in. Since he has only 3 starts under
his girth, maybe it was inexperience, but he didn’t do it in his previous race.
Magnum Moon had a fun, bouncy gallop over the Oaklawn dirt a few days ago and was
looking good.
Quip —
Has a solid middle-distance pedigree, by Distorted Humor out of a
daughter of Indian Charlie. He’ll be tested by Magnum Moon. Originally slated
for the Bluegrass, Quip was instead pointed to the Arkansas Derby after Baffert
decided to keep Justify home. Could upset the race.
Solomini — Does his best when he’s closer to
the pace. He made up ground in the Rebel but didn’t change leads while chasing
the Moon. The son of Curlin is quirky, but always a contender.
Upset
Potential
Tenfold — has the pedigree to run all day.
He’s by Curlin out of a Tapit half-sister to Donegal Moon (G3 Pegasus, 8.5F).
His second damsire is Giant’s Causeway and his 3rd dam is 1995
champion grass mare Possibly Perfect. With only a maiden and allowance victory
under his girth, Tenfold is still figuring things out. He was stubborn in his
last race, sticking his head in front and staying there. Would have been nice
if he’d drawn off, but a win is a win. He could surprise and pay tenfold your
bet.
Exotics
Plays
Combatant — always second or third best. 9F
could be at the top of his range, but his running style suggests that he could
surprise if the pace falls apart. He’ll be fighting it out down the stretch.
Dream Baby Dream — has a miler’s pedigree, but his
grinding late-running style has him
passing tired horses to get a piece of the dream. If they go fast early, he
could hit the board. Shades of Whitmore
and Suddenbreakingnews. Exotics, in a dream.
Beautiful Shot — Was stuck in rush hour traffic the
entire way in the Gotham, then had to slam on the breaks to avoid a crash.
Arroyo wrapped him up after that. He’s been keeping good company in California
and with a decent ride, has a shot to pick up a check. Exotics, if you’re
feeling beautiful.
Not
Today
Plainsman — This son of Flatter seems to be a
steady, one-paced sort and likes this track. Unfortunately, that one pace is
slower than the pace expected here. Maybe he’ll hold on to complete somebody’s
lower exotics. Not mine, but somebody's.
Machismo — Nice pedigree for the distance, but
he’s not up to this level of competition. The quick turn around and Quartarolo’s
0-10 record in graded stakes tells me Machismo really isn’t. Pass.
Selections
Front-running speed rarely holds up in the Arkansas Derby. In the
last decade, only four horses won either
on the lead or while pressing the pacesetter.
In the last five years, only American Pharoah won on the lead.
Longshots usually hit the board in the Arkansas Derby. Only three
of the last ten favorites stood in the winner’s circle. Additionally, only two
of the last ten winners had a victory in their previous start. Yes, I’m leaving
Magnum Moon off my top four selections, but he’s certainly a contender. Can Steve Asmussen
pull off the trifecta with Tenfold, Combatant and Dream Baby Dream?
#3 Tenfold (10-1)
#5 Solomini (2-1)
#9 Combatant (6-1)
#8 Quip (9-2)
Handigambling
This
is a tough betting race. None of the lower priced favorites have neon red flags
that would cause a bettor to look elsewhere.
I don’t like that Magnum Moon bears out at the end of his races. That’s my
preference, and thus, I left him off my top-four selections. However, we aren’t limited to a top four when
we bet, so I’ll include him plus a couple of late-running bombs underneath, ‘cause
they like to hit the board at Oaklawn. In 2014, Danza shocked the field and paid
$84.60 – and he was trained by Todd Pletcher.
Who’s Todd Pletcher?
$100 Virtual ThoroFan
Funny Money
$0.10
Superfecta Key: #3/ #1, #4, #5, #6, #8, #9 = $12.00
$0.10
Superfecta Key: #5/ #1, #3, #4, #6, #8, #9 = $12.00
$0.10
Superfecta Key: #8/ #1, #3, #4, #5, #6, #9 = $12.00
$0.10
Superfecta Key: #6/ #1, #3, #4, #5, #8, #9 = $12.00
$5
WPS #3 (4-1+ odds) = $15
$5
WPS #1 (4-1+ odds) = $15
$22 to go wild on the rest of the card.
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