Handicapper's Corner: 2018 Santa Anita Derby (G1)

Big Three Slug It Out in SA Derby

By: Nick Costa, Trackside With Trackman

Aside from the Kentucky Derby in four weeks, this Saturday is the biggest one in racing for three-year old colts. Three major preps for the 144^th ‘Run for the Roses’, the Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes and Santa Anita Derby, will award 100 points to the winner and 40 points to the runner-up, which is an almost guaranteed spot in the Churchill Downs starting gate on the first Saturday in May.

The trio of nine-furlong races will also award 20 and 10 points respectively, to the third and fourth-place horses, which could be decisive for those horses that have already accumulated points in earlier prep races.

Of the ’Big Three’, our Thorofan blog aims its spotlight out West at Santa Anita Racetrack for the $1 million Santa Anita Derby.

The anticipated rematch between Bolt d'Oro and McKinzie, who staged a classic stretch duel in the San Felipe Stakes one month ago, will not happen in the Santa Anita Derby, due to the latter horse sidelined with a leg injury. However, an equally intriguing matchup appears imminent in the Grade 1 contest on Saturday.

Bolt d’Oro, who is at or near the top of several media polls of Kentucky Derby contenders, has one blemish on his 5-race record, a third-place finish in last year’s BC Juvenile following a very wide trip. The colt had a minor setback in February but returned to the races in the San Felipe. Although not ‘fully cranked up’ according to his trainer, Mick Ruiz, the ‘Bolt Show’ delivered a smashing, all-out effort and was narrowly beaten by the Bob Baffert trained McKinzie. Following a review of the race by the stewards, Bolt d’ Oro was elevated to the win by virtue of McKinzie’s disqualification for interference nearing the finish line.

Benefitting from his strong comeback race, and excellent works since, Bolt d’Oro should be wound as tight as a drum with even more to offer. The multiple Grade 1 winner can bolster and solidify his status as ‘Best of the West’ with a victory here. Javier Castellano who took over the reins for the San Felipe, retains the mount.

Another top Kentucky Derby prospect from the Baffert barn, Justify, has now entered the fray. Baffert, a seven-time Santa Anita Derby winning trainer, was originally going to send his budding superstar to next weekend’s Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. However, McKinzie’s defection not only allowed his much hyped and highly regarded stablemate to join the Santa Anita lineup, but jockey Mike Smith makes a smooth transition from one to the other.

Justify, who was unraced as a two-year old, has started only twice, but displayed limitless potential when winning both races by a combined 16-lengths, albeit against lesser competition. The colt has done everything asked of him and has done it so effortlessly. No telling how good this colt really is. He takes a major step up and gets a stiff test for class. Justify will need to win or finish second to earn a spot in the Kentucky Derby. Time will tell if he answers the call this Saturday.

Another notable Kentucky Derby name who will be in the Santa Anita starting gate on Saturday for the $1 million prep race is Instilled Regard. Much was expected of the LeComte Stakes winner when he was made the favorite for the Risen Star Stakes. The colt was in good position but faltered down the lane and finished fourth. It should be noted the third-place horse from that event, Noble Indy, came back next to win the Louisiana Derby. After two trips to New Orleans, trainer Jerry Hollendorfer has kept Instilled Regard home in California and has worked him six times since his last outing. A return to top form should make him competitive and deliver a good account of himself. His speed figures aren’t as fast as the top two, so he needs to pick it up in that phase to have any shot of winning. Don’t discount his chances though, because young developing three-year olds can improve dramatically.

The rest of the field consists of a pair of maidens and a pair of maiden winners.

Back on March 10^th, during the stretch run of the San Felipe as Bolt d’Oro--McKinzie were duking it out, Santa Anita track announcer, Michael Wrona, said “The San Felipe is living up to its billing”, and it certainly did. Let’s hope on Saturday, the 2018 Santa Anita Derby can match or exceed it.

OUTLOOK

What to do? My best advice is to sit this one out and just enjoy the race. However, I’m compelled by my editor to make a selection. Since there is no value betting on Bolt d’Oro or Justify to win, I’ll take $100 mythical Thorofan bucks and put $50 to win and place on Instilled Regard. Hey, it’s a horse race and as we all are aware, strange things can happen.