Handicapper's Corner: Jenny Wiley Stakes (G1)

Dona Bruja Stands Out From Jenny Wiley Crowd

By: Reinier Macatangay, Setting the Pace

One common scenario when reading past performances is noticing a bunch of horses from the same race who all finished closely together. In the Grade 1, $350,000 Jenny Wiley Stakes (G1) on Saturday at Keeneland, there are five runners coming out of the Hillsborough Stakes (G2) at Tampa Bay Downs, and less than two lengths separated four of them from first to fifth. 


In this situation, it is best to try and beat the crowd. Not all of them can be win contenders, so bettors might as well choose one on top from a different race.

Here is a horse-by-horse analysis.

1) Cambodia (6-1) – Consistent type always finds a way to hit the board. While she may accomplish the same here, there is nothing that stands out about her.

2) Lovely Bernadette (30-1) – She picked up some nice graded stakes wins last fall. The Hillsborough flop where she lost by more than nine lengths is a head scratcher. Perhaps those stakes wins came against lesser competition, making her outclassed.

3) Off Limits (5-1) – The 6-year-old mare closed decently to run fifth in the Hillsborough, but there are three others from the same race and they all look similar. Prefer to limit underneath.

4) Dona Bruja (4-1) – This mare stands out. She took the Endeavour Stakes (G3) by four lengths over La Coronel, who runs in this spot too. When a horse wins by four or more on grass, it is a blowout because turf racing promotes smaller margins. The main choice.

5) Kitten’s Roar (12-1) – Like Cambodia, she is consistent but not a star. On any given day, she can work out a good trip and find her way onto the board. In terms of winning though, this is an unlikely candidate.

6) Bletchley (30-1) – Gulfstream Park is never a bad place to start a North American career. Even though this former Euro did well to pick up a win in an optional claimer, it is better to take a wait and see approach for now.

7) Sistercharlie (7-2) – It is difficult to go against Chad Brown in any turf race. Unlike his other filly Off Limits, this Brown starter owns a little more upside with only one start in North America. She ran a good second in the Belmont Oaks Invitational (G1) last summer, and now receives Lasix for this race. Contender.

8) La Coronel (9-2) – As part of the clustered finish in the Hillsborough, she is a play against in this spot. Also, notice Dona Bruja defeated her by four lengths two races ago. The Queen Elizabeth Cup (G1) score last fall came with an uncontested lead. Limit to underneath spots.

9) Ultra Brat (30-1) – Grade 3 winner is probably outclassed.

10) Proctor’s Ledge (12-1) – She actually opened up on the Hillsborough field, before returning to reality. If she is considered to win, then so must all of them from the same race. That is unreasonable, so limit this one underneath too.

11) Fourstar Crook (5-1) – The Hillsborough winner is a win machine, taking 10 out of 15 starts. On closer inspection, most of those wins came against state-bred foes in New York. The wide post is not appealing either. Limit underneath as well

Selections
If one of those Hillsborough runners must be used on top though, maybe Proctor’s Ledge will at least offer some value in comparison to the rest.

But Dona Bruja is likely sitting on top of a big year. She always had hype behind her after winning easily in her North American debut and second start on this soil. This could be the year to unleash her full potential.

Handigambling ($100)

$40 Win – Dona Bruja
$30 Exacta – Dona Bruja / Kitten’s Roar
$30 Exacta – Dona Bruja / Proctor’s Ledge