Could the Claiborne Breeders' Futurity produce next 2YO Champ?
Keeneland kicks off the 2023 Fall meet with five graded stakes, including the $500,000 Grade 1 Claiborne
Breeders' Futurity for juvenile colts.
The Keeneland track surface
switch from Polytrack back to dirt in 2014 returned the 1 1/16 mile event to
its former glory as a significant Breeders' Cup Challenge race.
Six of the last nine Futurity
winners hit the board in the Juvenile, and three, Classic Empire (2016), Essential
Quality (2020), and Forte (2021), earned year-end championships.
The Breeders' Futurity is also a
2023 Kentucky Derby points race, offering a scale of 10-5-3-2-1 to the top four
finishers.
The Breeders' Futurity attracted nine
colts, including Hopeful Stakes (G1) runner-up Timberlake, Iroquois (G3) winner
West Saratoga, and undefeated 2-time stakes winner The Wine Steward.
Claiborne Breeders' Futurity is billed
as race nine of 11 on Keeneland's opening Saturday card, with a post time of
5:14 PM ET.
Let's review the field.
9. Locked (7-5) lived up
to his $425,000 Keeneland yearling purchase price in his second start. In a maiden
race at Saratoga, the Todd Pletcher trainee pressed the early pace through a
half-mile in 47.72, then opened up and was hand-ridden to the finish, breezing
under the wire 7 ¼ lengths in front, getting a mile in 1:36. Previously in his
debut, Locked had to steady hard just steps out of the gate, and played
catch-up from last place. He made up over 11 lengths and finished strong for
third place, 3 ½ lengths behind Just Steel.
Locked is by Gun Runner out of
the winning Malibu Moon mare Luna Rosa. The mare is a half-sister to multiple
Grade 1 -winning sprinter/miler Gabby's Golden Gal and Grade 2 winner Always a
Princess.
Locked's 101 Brisnet speed and
late pace rating of 109 are the highest in the field. The concern is that he
may regress from the tremendous effort. Over the last year, Todd Pletcher has a
19% win rate with last-out maiden winners. Contender.
1. The Wine Steward (8-1) is
undefeated in three starts, including the Bashford Manor and restricted Funny
Cide Stakes, so why is he 8-1? His speed ratings improved in each outing, culminating
in a 97 for the Funny Cide, and his 95 late-pace figure is the second-highest
in the Futurity field. The Mike Maker trainee stumbled at the break of the Funny
Cide, then made a sustained five-wide move, circling the field on the far turn.
Manny Franco pushed The Wine Steward to the pacesetter, and once he saw his
competitor, The Wine Steward challenged and put away that foe, winning by a
head.
By the #5 freshman sire Vino
Rosso, The Wine Steward is the first foal out of a daughter of To Honor and
Serve. The mare is a half-sister to multiple graded winning turf router
Isotherm and Grade 3 winner Giant Game.
The Wine Steward fired a bullet
five furlongs in 1:00 at Churchill in his second-to-last breeze. Live
longshot.
2. Timberlake (7-2) graduated
in his second start by 9 ¼ lengths at Ellis Park, then took on winners in the
Hopeful (G1). In that race, the Brad Cox trainee was stuck behind traffic while
on the rail and wouldn't relax for Florent Geroux. The pair finally found a
seam in mid-stretch, and the horses near him moved away, not wanting any part
of Timberlake. Timberlake looked like a winner, but Nutella Fella made a
surprise late move to grab the victory by 1 ½ lengths. Timberlake held off
Pirate by a neck for second place. Timberlake's speed rating decreased five
points from his maiden victory to 87 points for the Hopeful Stakes, but he bested
Just Steel and Baytown Chatterbox.
A son
of Into Mischief, Timberlake's female family is filled with group stakes-winning
turf routers. Contender.
3. Awesome Road (3-1) dueled
through mid-stretch before pulling away by 2 ¾ lengths in his Elis Park debut. The
Brad Cox trainee completed six furlongs in 1:10.80, with a 12.76 final furlong,
and earned a 90 speed rating for his effort. The race produced two next-out
winners. Awesome Road flagged his tail when Gerardo Corrales smacked him on the
left side, a sign of immaturity.
The Claiborne farm-bred colt is
by Quality Road out of Pulpit's full sister, Orate. The mare previously produced
the English Group 3 winner Whitecliftsofdover and restricted winner Endless
Chatter, the dam of Futurity entrant Baytown Chatterbox.
Awesome Road posted a pre-race :59.80
five-furlong move at Churchill. Brad Cox wins 31% with the last-out maiden to
stakes angle. Exotics.
6. Generous Tipper (15-1) changed
his running style from a closer to a pacesetter and rewarded his connections
with a 7 ½ -length victory in his third start. The field contained next-out
winner and Futurity rival Northern Flame. In the one-mile event at Ellis Park, the
Ken McPeek trainee zipped out of the gate and was quickly in front. Despite the
quick start, he was asked to press from the rail. After a half in 47.17,
Generous Tipper argued with two others on his outside but quickly dispatched
them once Brian Hernandez, Jr. gave the go-ahead. Generous Tipper completed the
mile in 1:37.36 with a final furlong of 12.94.
Street Sense's son is out of Stopshoppingdebbie,
a multiple stakes-winning daughter of Curlin. Stopshoppingdebbie was queen of Emerald
Downs and lost only once in her 10-race career, a Grade-3 event at Santa Anita.
A trio of her half-siblings are stakes winners at the same track, including
Smarty Deby, who bore multiple graded-placed runner Wild About Deb and listed-winning
turf miler Starship Nterprise.
Generous Tipper's speed ratings have increased
in each start, and his 91 late-pace rating is the third highest in the Futurity
field. Longshot play.
5. West Saratoga (20-1) is
the most experienced colt in the field, with six starts under his girth. He
steadily improved since April and graduated in his fifth start, beating
Generous Tipper. The Larry Demeritte trainee followed up with a 1 ¾ length
victory in the Iroquois Stakes (G3). So far, only third-place finisher and Futurity
rival Northern Flame won next out, so I question the strength of the Iroquois
field. Previously, West Saratoga was trounced 9 ¼ lengths by Timberlake.
By Preakness hero Exaggerator,
West Saratoga is the first foal out of an unraced Uncle Mo mare. The class in
his female family skips to the third generation and includes Alcibiades (G1) heroine Wickedly Perfect.
West Saratoga has tactical speed
and has finished off the board only once in his career; with a bit of
improvement, he could hit the exotics.
7. Just Steel (12-1) put
it all together in his third start. He dueled gamely throughout
and held off Be You by a nose despite being crowded and bumped in an
intimidation tactic by Irad Ortiz, Jr. aboard Be You. The third-place finisher
returned to win his next start. In the Hopeful Stakes, Just Steel expended
energy in the stretch, fighting with a stubborn Mission Beach to his outside. The
Wayne Lukas trainee shortened stride and finished seventh, 7 ¾ lengths behind.
Just
Steel's speed ratings slowly progressed to a 97 for his initial victory, then
regressed 19 points in the Hopeful. He's still learning and may improve down
the road.
Justify's
son is out of an Australian Group 1 winner and is a half-brother to an
Australian Group 1 winner and an Irish Group 3 winner. Pass.
8. Northern Flame (20-1)
graduated in his third start after Timberlake beat him 17 lengths, and Gross
Tipper handed him a 10-length defeat.
The Ken McPeek trainee switched
from Ellis Park to Churchill and increased his distance to 1 1/16 miles. He
changed from a mid-pack/presser style to a pacesetter, which resulted in a 1 ½ length
victory.
Northern Flame is a son of #3
Freshman Sire Flameaway out of Darlings
Darling, an unraced daughter of Bernardini, who previously bore Grade 3-placed
On Alert. Darlings Darling is a half to Alcibiades (G1) winner Heavenly Love and
Grade 2 winner, Forever Darling.
2-year-olds can improve
practically overnight, and Northern Flame is the only one in the field who has traveled
1 1/16 miles. However, he'll need further improvement to make an impact here. Pass.
4. Baytown Chatterbox (50-1)
figured things out in his third start, although it
was painful to watch, as the very green son of Street Sense wandered around in
the stretch with no idea where he was going, all the while the jockey bouncing
around, whipping and driving, and looking back. Trainer Paul McEntee outfitted
Baytown Chatterbox with blinkers and was rewarded when the gelding shocked the Ellis
Park Juvenile Stakes at 60-1. He was ambitiously placed in the Hopeful Stakes
and was never in contention, finishing eighth, beaten 8 ½ lengths.
Baytown Chatterbox is out of a restricted stakes winner and
carries the famed Claiborne bloodlines; his third dam is Preach, better known
as Pulpit's dam.
Baytown Chatterbox might be a decent competitor when he
grows up, but his speed ratings and performance need to improve to be
competitive here. Pass
Analysis:
Since the switch back to dirt
nine years ago, every Breeders' Futurity hero finished in the top three in
their prep, except for Classic Empire, who took a sharp right turn coming out
of the gate in the Hopeful Stakes and was a DNF.
Favorites live up to their
billing with four winners; only one finished out of the money.
No particular running style
dominates; however, only one pacesetter won in the last nine attempts.
Quick early fractions could set
the Futurity up for an off-the-pace type. Just Steel, Timberlake, Just Steel,
Awesome Road, and Northern Flame may vie early. Locked, Generous Tipper and
West Saratoga may be hot on heels.
Locked may be a lock to everyone
else, but I'm looking for The Wine Steward to pull the upset. I was impressed
with his last race when he relished the fight and his rival gave in. Granted,
it was a restricted race, but his final furlong in each race has been in the
:11 to :12 range. Further, he wins from off the pace and is bred to love longer
distances.
Timberlake could show further improvement,
and he's Grade 1-placed.
Locked ran a monster race in his
second start. Maybe he's that good, and we'll see something special.
The rest have a chance to sort
themselves out for the lower exotics.
Picks:
1. The Wine Steward (8-1)
2. Timberlake (7-2)
9. Locked (7-5)
3. Awesome Road (3-1)
