Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Woodward Stakes (G2)

 Betting Opportunities abound in Woodward Stakes

By: Robert Marks @theyreinthegate

Saturday at 3:11 pm Eastern time is the $400,000 Grade 2 Woodward Stakes for 3-year-olds and upwards at Aqueduct Race Track for a distance of 1 1/8 miles on the dirt track. 

Friday’s card at Aqueduct was cancelled due to heavy rains. With that in mind we recommend you monitor track conditions. It may be muddy or sloppy.

Here is a look at your field.

 

First thing that pops out to me is the nice big field which will produce plenty of betting opportunities.  These are races where you can hit with a higher odds horse.  Our tactic will be to use the favorite Zandon underneath, hoping to hit with one of the longer Odds horses. Here is who we will look at:

O’Connor (8-1) for trainer Joseph Saffie is interesting. This 6-year-old had an aggressive 2022 campaign, racing all over and then early in 2023 ran in the Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream. He then ran again at Gulfstream in April before getting a layoff and not racing till August. He comes into this race as his 3^rd race off the layoff, having races twice at Mountaineer, including 2^nd in the Charlestown Classic. In that race he came from last and surged late finishing strongly. He now gets Irad Ortiz Jr on board, a jockey change form Trevor McCarthy last time out.

He seems to be in good Form now that he had that rest. Jump on him if he the odds stay anywhere near the morning line price.

Zandon at 2-1 is the favorite with Flavien Prat on board and Chad Brown the trainer. When at his best, this is probably the fastest horse in the field. He is always in the money but does have what I call “seconditis” a term I use for horses who are always in the money but just don’t seem to like winning. This horse is just short of 2 million in earnings but yet has only 2 lifetime wins.  Pencil this horse in for yet another 2^nd place finish.

Algiers (6-1) comes off a long layoff having not raced since Dubai in the Dubai World Cup in March 2023. This shipper had a similar long layoff in 2002 and finished 1^st in the 1^st race off the layoff. You never know how these European shippers will handle an US dirt track. I’m guessing bettors might stay away thus making the 6-1 morning line attractive to me. A complete wildcard, which I will use.  

If the track remains Muddy from Friday’s rain, you might want to throw in Costa Terra at 15-1. Trained by Linda Rice with Jose Lescano on board, he has a 1^st and 2^nd out of 3 starts on off tracks including a 2^nd last time out in August at Saratoga. This 4-year-old had 2 nice speed figures in his last 2 races.

With a big field, we always like to bet the Trifecta, hoping to get a longshot in the mix with 2 of the mid-range odds horses. It’s these types of races where a Trifecta payoff can be highly profitable.

We look for a fairly fast early pace with Oconner coming late down the stretch to nose out Zandon for the win.

Bets: $100 dollar Budget

$50-win O’Connor

$2Trifecta Box: O’Connor, Zandon, Algiers, Costa Terra (total bet $48)

$2 place: Costa Terra