Who has the endurance to win the Kentucky Turf Cup?
By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper
This requires great endurance for horse and jockey. Running styles and endurance are key factors in winning. Jockeys must be keenly aware of their horse's capabilities and put them in position to win and be ITM.
There are sixteen entries and only twelve will run the mile and a half. The latest statistics bear show that mid-pack closers fair well in races over a mile. Those that can find their way into third, fourth or fifth and hold that position until the stretch run begins are the ones to watch.
There is no question that the quality of the entries is top-notch and the jockeys are a great colony for the abbreviated meet.
Below are those that I have reviewed and meet the criteria above:
- The horses have run with top company at quality tracks.
- They have endurance, and the running style.
- The jockey is familiar with the track.
The ability to close on others and experience to do it on more than one occasion.
The $1.7 million Grade 2 Kentucky Turf Cup attracted an over-subscribed field of 16 horses. The 1 ½ mile route for 3-year-olds and older is carded as race the closing race 12 with a post time of 6:05 PM CT.
I left off the odds for the horses because the odds change quite a bit at Kentucky Downs. Play them as though they were all 3-1. Base it on performance and the running style above.
1. Foreign Relations – Murphy/Velasquez – twice a winner at the distance at Keeneland and Churchill (GIII). Running style is perfect and the change to the Hall of Fame jockey gives a lot of promise. Training lights out and goes with blinkers on for this one.
2. Red Knight – Maker/Gaffalione – Multiple Grade I competitor with 1.8 million in the bank. Has more experience at the distance than any other in the race and the very hot Gaffalione get the ride. Has been to KD twice, won one and in the exacta. A good bet.
3. Verstappen – Walsh/Cannon – Came home second in the Bowling Green at Saratoga behind Channel Maker. He's one for one at the distance winning at Keeneland in the Elkhorn defeating Red Knight by a head. Cannon is 21% for the meet.
4. Santin – Walsh/Geroux – Just don't see it happening. Geroux is a very patient rider and might work something out but he's been out of the money all but once since last year. Second in the Arlington Millions at Colonial.
5. Get Smokin – Casse/De La Cruz – The reason to mention this guy is the speed. His running style is the Rabbit for the race, at least on paper. He will lead them all on a merry chase down the hill and around the corner. After that, I just don't think he's got enough left to finish.
6. Me and Mr. C – Maker/Coralles – Has won his last three and has not been out of the money since January against non-graded stakes company His running style is ideal for the trip and although he has never bee the distance Corrales has guided him well in the last to wins. I especially like this one.
7. Kitodan – Foster/Ortiz, I – Failed in the Tapit here last out but has had only two races this year. His last race last year with the Dueling Grounds Derby winning at 20-1 by four lengths with Corrales up. This time he gets Irad aboard. I don't think I'll leave the number one jockey out of the bets today.
8. Never Explain –McGaughey/Rosario - I'd like to say yes but I don't think this horse has the endurance to make it home. Rosario is a whiz when it comes to closing but this is a tough ask.
9. Nautilus – Lobo/Talamo – Not sure why we're in this race. Hasn't been successful since Brazil, except the last race going a mile on an off the turf race at Ellis Park for 80K. Nope.
10. Another Mystery – Block/Hernandez – And it's a mystery to me why he's entered. Last best was on soft going in the Connelly in Houston and been beaten by many of the contenders in this race. But there is something curious about him. Chris Block has him back in his barn for the third time. This one came in 3rd by a neck in last year's version of this race at 16-1 against Red Knight above. He's been away from races since May but has had a good work tab with some unusual 7 furlong works in good time. This one of those shoot-the-moon horses. Longshots that add value to your bets are always worth the risk.
11. Therapist – Maker/Castellano – His running style is ideal for the trip. Won the Grace I United Nations at Monmouth in July with Javier aboard. He is the short ML favorite on the list and has $1.3 million in his purse. Only downside I can see is the outside post and the way they go into the race on the tighter turn at the top of the track. Having said that it is Castellano and his recent exploits in major races gives me confidence that he will work through the minutia.
12. Spooky Channel – Barkley/Graham - He is kinda spooky. 13 time winner from 30 races and 60% ITM but last out he did not run the style that is needed here. In the past he does track the lead and finishes well. He is a three-time winner at the distance with almost a million in his bank. Just don't think he's ready enough against the others.
Also Eligibles
13. Sy Dog – Motion/Loveberry – Recent form and closing pace say No.
14. Cellist – Arnold/Garcia – Came in second behind Me and Mr. C at Ellis Park in a $250K non graded stakes. He may be the best of the AE crowd.
15. Highest Honors – Brown/Otiz, I – Outside post and much too polite for this crowd.
16. Red Run – Maker/Cheminaud – If the race was on dirt I might consider him on the bottom. No turf speed.
Handigambling
Here's how to play a reasonable group of horses with a minimal investment for maximum returns.
$.50 Trifecta – 6,11 with 6,11,1,2,3 with 6,11,1,2,3,4,7,10 $22.50
$1 Exacta Box – 6,11,1,7,10 $20
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