Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Kentucky Turf Cup (G2)

 Who has the endurance to win the Kentucky Turf Cup?

By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper

Kentucky Downs is such a unique track and has its challenges for everyone. The track’s design adds to the toughness of the task. Beginning with the downhill start, there’s a wide sweeping turn at the bottom of the hill, and then the steep two tier uphill to the finish the longest stretch in Kentucky.

This requires great endurance for horse and jockey. Running styles and endurance are key factors in winning. Jockeys must be keenly aware of their horse's capabilities and put them in position to win and be ITM.

 

 

There are sixteen entries and only twelve will run the mile and a half. The latest statistics bear show that mid-pack closers fair well in races over a mile. Those that can find their way into third, fourth or fifth and hold that position until the stretch run begins are the ones to watch.

There is no question that the quality of the entries is top-notch and the jockeys are a great colony for the abbreviated meet.

Below are those that I have reviewed and meet the criteria above:

• The horses have run with top company at quality tracks.
• They have endurance, and the running style.
• The jockey is familiar with the track.

The ability to close on others and experience to do it on more than one occasion.

The $1.7 million Grade 2 Kentucky Turf Cup attracted an over-subscribed field of 16 horses. The 1 ½ mile route for 3-year-olds and older is carded as race the closing race 12 with a post time of 6:05 PM CT. 

 

I left off the odds for the horses because the odds change quite a bit at Kentucky Downs. Play them as though they were all 3-1. Base it on performance and the running style above.

1. Foreign Relations – Murphy/Velasquez – twice a winner at the distance at Keeneland and Churchill (GIII). Running style is perfect and the change to the Hall of Fame jockey gives a lot of promise. Training lights out and goes with blinkers on for this one.

2. Red Knight – Maker/Gaffalione – Multiple Grade I competitor with 1.8 million in the bank. Has more experience at the distance than any other in the race and the very hot Gaffalione get the ride. Has been to KD twice, won one and in the exacta. A good bet.

3.  Verstappen – Walsh/Cannon – Came home second in the Bowling Green at Saratoga behind Channel Maker. He's one for one at the distance winning at Keeneland in the Elkhorn defeating Red Knight by a head. Cannon is 21% for the meet.

4. Santin – Walsh/Geroux – Just don't see it happening. Geroux is a very patient rider and might work something out but he's been out of the money all but once since last year. Second in the Arlington Millions at Colonial.

5. Get Smokin – Casse/De La Cruz – The reason to mention this guy is the speed. His running style is the Rabbit for the race, at least on paper. He will lead them all on a merry chase down the hill and around the corner. After that, I just don't think he's got enough left to finish.

6. Me and Mr. C – Maker/Coralles – Has won his last three and has not been out of the money since January against non-graded stakes company His running style is ideal for the trip and although he has never bee the distance Corrales has guided him well in the last to wins. I especially like this one.

7. Kitodan – Foster/Ortiz, I – Failed in the Tapit here last out but has had only two races this year. His last race last year with the Dueling Grounds Derby winning at 20-1 by four lengths with Corrales up. This time he gets Irad aboard. I don't think I'll leave the number one jockey out of the bets today.

8. Never Explain –McGaughey/Rosario - I'd like to say yes but I don't think this horse has the endurance to make it home. Rosario is a whiz when it comes to closing but this is a tough ask.

9. Nautilus – Lobo/Talamo – Not sure why we're in this race. Hasn't been successful since Brazil, except the last race going a mile on an off the turf race at Ellis Park for 80K. Nope.

10. Another Mystery – Block/Hernandez – And it's a mystery to me why he's entered. Last best was on soft going in the Connelly in Houston and been beaten by many of the contenders in this race. But there is something curious about him. Chris Block has him back in his barn for the third time. This one came in 3^rd by a neck in last year's version of this race at 16-1 against Red Knight above. He's been away from races since May but has had a good work tab with some unusual 7 furlong works in good time. This one of those shoot-the-moon horses. Longshots that add value to your bets are always worth the risk.

11. Therapist – Maker/Castellano – His running style is ideal for the trip. Won the Grace I United Nations at Monmouth in July with Javier aboard. He is the short ML favorite on the list and has $1.3 million in his purse. Only downside I can see is the outside post and the way they go into the race on the tighter turn at the top of the track. Having said that it is Castellano and his recent exploits in major races gives me confidence that he will work through the minutia.

12. Spooky Channel – Barkley/Graham -  He is kinda spooky.  13 time winner from 30 races and 60% ITM but last out he did not run the style that is needed here. In the past he does track the lead and finishes well. He is a three-time winner at the distance with almost a million in his bank. Just don't think he's ready enough against the others.

Also Eligibles

13. Sy Dog – Motion/Loveberry – Recent form and closing pace say No.

14. Cellist – Arnold/Garcia – Came in second behind Me and Mr. C at Ellis Park in a $250K non graded stakes. He may be the best of the AE crowd.

15. Highest Honors – Brown/Otiz, I – Outside post and much too polite for this crowd.

16. Red Run – Maker/Cheminaud – If the race was on dirt I might consider him on the bottom. No turf speed.

 Handigambling  

Here's how to play a reasonable group of horses with a minimal investment for maximum returns.

$.50 Trifecta – 6,11 with 6,11,1,2,3 with 6,11,1,2,3,4,7,10   $22.50

$1 Exacta Box – 6,11,1,7,10   $20

 

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Belmont Derby (G1)

 Proven Talent vs. Newcomers in Grade 1 Belmont Derby

By: Stuart Marc deVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper

Turf racing has become a focus in the US in recent years.  Saturday’s $750,000 Grade 1 Belmont Derby is a testament to this and kicks off New York’s “Turf Trinity” with a Grade 1, 1 ¼ mile event that has brought together a stellar field of eleven 3-year-old males. 

Successful runners here will move on to the Saratoga Derby next month and then the final leg, The Jockey Club Derby, this fall.  The turf series has become the premier target for the best grass sophomores around. 

The Field:

1.    Mendelssohns March (D. Davis/K. McPeek) 30-1 – Kenny McPeek won this race last year with a longshot (Classic Causeway) and he brings in another one today.  ‘March has always hinted at top class ability and seems to be improving but he will have to really step up here.  His 2^nd place finish behind Webslinger looks better on paper than it was visually.  McPeek’s main rider Brian Hernandez Jr has gone to Horseshoe Indianapolis and is on multiple runners for this barn instead of here for a prestigious G1. 

2.   Boppy O (L. Saez/M. Casse) 12-1 – This son of Bolt d’Oro also looks on the improve and getting a class test.  He deserves the shot as he did run down a 1-5 shot in winning the Jersey Derby in his last start.  Check the results of Friday’s G3 Manila at Belmont.  That favorite he beat, Talk of the Nation, is 5-2 in that spot and his performance may give some clues here.  That said, this is a BIG jump up.  

3.   Cyber Ninja (J. Alvarado/B. Mott) 30-1 – Hall of Famer Bill Mott is not known for aggressive placement of his stock.  He enters this Arrogate colt off a sexy MSW win going longer.  Visually, ‘Ninja looks to be any kind.  He has a lovely stride, will get the distance and yet another on the improve.  This is a massive class jump. If you back him, it would be more because of trainer intent than what he has proven up until now.  Looks intriguing.   

4.   Webslinger (J. Castellano/M. Casse) 9-2 – One of the proven runners in the field.  He won the big 3yo turf stake on Derby Day from post 12.  He was never closer than 4 wide the entire trip.  He came back with a dominant win against lesser a month later, again racing 4 wide the entire trip.  He has solid speed figures, pace figures and seems versatile from a pace perspective. 

5.   Far Bridge (J. Ortiz/T. Pletcher) 4-1 –  This one ran 2^nd, beat a nose to Webslinger on Derby Day.  He skimmed the rail while the winner was wide.  In his last, he ran 2^nd again after looking all in on the turn.  He somehow re-rallied to miss Kalik by a length (entered here as well).  Perhaps he is hard to ride but the ability is just bubbling.  Perhaps today is the day he puts it all together.

6.   Silver Knott (GB) (R. Mullen/C. Appleby) 6-1 – Favored in last year’s BC Juvenile Turf where he was beat a nose, Silver Knott (GB) seems to always show up.  However, he did finish behind Kalik and Far Bridge in last month's Pennine Ridge and both are back here today.  He did look to have every chance to advance in that event but didn’t close the deal.  Jockey Richard Mullen is back to ride for Charlie Appleby.  Again, there is a lot to like here.

7.   Wizard of Westwood (J. Velazquez/M. McCarthy) 15-1 –   He won at the distance.  He has a Hall of Fame Jockey.  He is the speed of the speed.  That said, he is another getting the acid test as these waters are much deeper than a June turf stake at SA.  Catch him to win.

8.   Kalik (I. Ortiz Jr./C. Brown) 5-1 – The more accomplished of Chad Brown’s entries, Kalik enters off a G2 win, beating 2 others in here and I think it was easier than the margin suggests.  He wired the field that day and did so in his race prior, but he doesn’t need the lead.  Visually, it looks like the extra furlong will be no issue. 

9.   Mondego (GB) (J. Rosario/C. Clement) 20-1 – A two-time winner in four starts, Mondego (GB) chooses a G1 for his stakes debut.  He is another one getting the acid test from strong connections.  That said he is a bit lacking in speed figures against these and would need to run his best.

10.Redistricting (F. Prat/C. Brown) 8-1 – “The other Chad” has only a flashy MSW win to his resume.   He must have shown these powerhouse connections all they needed to see for them to enter.  Klaravich/Brown have a plethora of great turf runners so there are high expectations here.  That said, Brown is 0-8 with 3yo second time starters in graded stakes on the turf in the last 5 years.  Beware

11.The Foxes (IRE) (O. Murphy/A. Balding) 7-2 – A Group 2 winner across the pond in May, The Foxes (IRE) looks like a formidable foe.  His English Derby 5^th place finish is better than it looks.  He made a menacing move with the winner only to flatten out late.  The top 2 came back with G1 & G2 scores in their next starts.  The cutback to 1 ¼ miles will hit this guy right between the eyes.  He may need some pace in front of him for his best.  Word on the street is that he has struggled with the summer heat & humidity. 

Summary: 

The is an interesting puzzle.  On the one hand, we have the “known quantities” in Webslinger, Kalik, Silver Knott (GB) and The Foxes (IRE).  They have all performed well in top company. 

On the other hand, we have the “unknown quantities” in Cyber Ninja, Redistricting and Mondego (GB).  They are maiden & allowance winners from top connections who just have the feel that this event is more than just ‘taking a shot’. 

Sprinkle in the middle others – Mendelssohns March, Bobby O & Far Bridge -that have performed well in stakes and are knocking on the door.  I think the favorite here will be about 3-1 and most likely will be The Foxes (IRE).

I get the feeling that pace and trip will matter here as no one really stands out.  It is my experience that experience matters in Grade 1 races.  Proven form generally outweighs up and coming talent. 

That said, I feel that Kalik and Webslinger are the best of the known quantities and may offer some value.  I think Kalik will settle behind ‘Westwood and get 1^st run when the running starts.  Webslinger has had the worst of it in his last 2 and has prevailed.  He projects a better trip today.  His last race he finished with something in reserve. 

One could argue that the Euros are just plain better on the turf.  After all, they have proven that more than once on our soil.  Silver Knott (GB) had every chance to catch Kalik in his last and didn’t.  The Foxes (IRE) will have to come from well back and may be pace compromised.  I would argue that this particular crop of American 3yo turf horses is superior to those in past years. The Euros have their hands full.  Toss in the hot weather, firm turf and there are more questions for them. 

Off my eye, Cyber Ninja and Redistricting will be major players in this division but I am uncertain it will be today.  They may light up the exotics although the Brown horse will take more $$ than the Mott horse.  It is New York after all, and Chad rules the turf. 

Picks:

8. Kalik (5-1)

4. Webslinger (9-2)

3. Cyber Ninja (30-1)

10. Redistricting (8-1)

 

The Bet:

Based on $100 wagered

$25 Exacta box 4,8 = $50 (Kalik/Webslinger)

$20 Exacta 8/4  =$20(Kalik/Webslinger)

$5 Exacta key 4,8/3,4,8 10 = $30 (Webslinger/Kalik with Cyber Ninja/Webslinger/Kalik/Redistricting)

This way of betting weights my best opinion with the most $$

50% of my bet is on the 8-4 exacta. 

30% of my bet is on 4-8 exacta

20% of my bet is on 4 or 8 winning with my prices running second (3,10)