Proven Talent vs. Newcomers in Grade 1 Belmont Derby
By: Stuart Marc deVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper
Successful runners here will move on to the Saratoga Derby next month and then the final leg, The Jockey Club Derby, this fall. The turf series has become the premier target for the best grass sophomores around.
The Field:
1. Mendelssohns March (D. Davis/K. McPeek) 30-1 – Kenny McPeek won this race last year with a longshot (Classic Causeway) and he brings in another one today. ‘March has always hinted at top class ability and seems to be improving but he will have to really step up here. His 2nd place finish behind Webslinger looks better on paper than it was visually. McPeek’s main rider Brian Hernandez Jr has gone to Horseshoe Indianapolis and is on multiple runners for this barn instead of here for a prestigious G1.
2. Boppy O (L. Saez/M. Casse) 12-1 – This son of Bolt d’Oro also looks on the improve and getting a class test. He deserves the shot as he did run down a 1-5 shot in winning the Jersey Derby in his last start. Check the results of Friday’s G3 Manila at Belmont. That favorite he beat, Talk of the Nation, is 5-2 in that spot and his performance may give some clues here. That said, this is a BIG jump up.
3. Cyber Ninja (J. Alvarado/B. Mott) 30-1 – Hall of Famer Bill Mott is not known for aggressive placement of his stock. He enters this Arrogate colt off a sexy MSW win going longer. Visually, ‘Ninja looks to be any kind. He has a lovely stride, will get the distance and yet another on the improve. This is a massive class jump. If you back him, it would be more because of trainer intent than what he has proven up until now. Looks intriguing.
4. Webslinger (J. Castellano/M. Casse) 9-2 – One of the proven runners in the field. He won the big 3yo turf stake on Derby Day from post 12. He was never closer than 4 wide the entire trip. He came back with a dominant win against lesser a month later, again racing 4 wide the entire trip. He has solid speed figures, pace figures and seems versatile from a pace perspective.
5. Far Bridge (J. Ortiz/T. Pletcher) 4-1 – This one ran 2nd, beat a nose to Webslinger on Derby Day. He skimmed the rail while the winner was wide. In his last, he ran 2nd again after looking all in on the turn. He somehow re-rallied to miss Kalik by a length (entered here as well). Perhaps he is hard to ride but the ability is just bubbling. Perhaps today is the day he puts it all together.
6. Silver Knott (GB) (R. Mullen/C. Appleby) 6-1 – Favored in last year’s BC Juvenile Turf where he was beat a nose, Silver Knott (GB) seems to always show up. However, he did finish behind Kalik and Far Bridge in last month's Pennine Ridge and both are back here today. He did look to have every chance to advance in that event but didn’t close the deal. Jockey Richard Mullen is back to ride for Charlie Appleby. Again, there is a lot to like here.
7. Wizard of Westwood (J. Velazquez/M. McCarthy) 15-1 – He won at the distance. He has a Hall of Fame Jockey. He is the speed of the speed. That said, he is another getting the acid test as these waters are much deeper than a June turf stake at SA. Catch him to win.
8. Kalik (I. Ortiz Jr./C. Brown) 5-1 – The more accomplished of Chad Brown’s entries, Kalik enters off a G2 win, beating 2 others in here and I think it was easier than the margin suggests. He wired the field that day and did so in his race prior, but he doesn’t need the lead. Visually, it looks like the extra furlong will be no issue.
9. Mondego (GB) (J. Rosario/C. Clement) 20-1 – A two-time winner in four starts, Mondego (GB) chooses a G1 for his stakes debut. He is another one getting the acid test from strong connections. That said he is a bit lacking in speed figures against these and would need to run his best.
10.Redistricting (F. Prat/C. Brown) 8-1 – “The other Chad” has only a flashy MSW win to his resume. He must have shown these powerhouse connections all they needed to see for them to enter. Klaravich/Brown have a plethora of great turf runners so there are high expectations here. That said, Brown is 0-8 with 3yo second time starters in graded stakes on the turf in the last 5 years. Beware
11.The Foxes (IRE) (O. Murphy/A. Balding) 7-2 – A Group 2 winner across the pond in May, The Foxes (IRE) looks like a formidable foe. His English Derby 5th place finish is better than it looks. He made a menacing move with the winner only to flatten out late. The top 2 came back with G1 & G2 scores in their next starts. The cutback to 1 ¼ miles will hit this guy right between the eyes. He may need some pace in front of him for his best. Word on the street is that he has struggled with the summer heat & humidity.
Summary:
The is an interesting puzzle. On the one hand, we have the “known quantities” in Webslinger, Kalik, Silver Knott (GB) and The Foxes (IRE). They have all performed well in top company.
On the other hand, we have the “unknown quantities” in Cyber Ninja, Redistricting and Mondego (GB). They are maiden & allowance winners from top connections who just have the feel that this event is more than just ‘taking a shot’.
Sprinkle in the middle others – Mendelssohns March, Bobby O & Far Bridge -that have performed well in stakes and are knocking on the door. I think the favorite here will be about 3-1 and most likely will be The Foxes (IRE).
I get the feeling that pace and trip will matter here as no one really stands out. It is my experience that experience matters in Grade 1 races. Proven form generally outweighs up and coming talent.
That said, I feel that Kalik and Webslinger are the best of the known quantities and may offer some value. I think Kalik will settle behind ‘Westwood and get 1st run when the running starts. Webslinger has had the worst of it in his last 2 and has prevailed. He projects a better trip today. His last race he finished with something in reserve.
One could argue that the Euros are just plain better on the turf. After all, they have proven that more than once on our soil. Silver Knott (GB) had every chance to catch Kalik in his last and didn’t. The Foxes (IRE) will have to come from well back and may be pace compromised. I would argue that this particular crop of American 3yo turf horses is superior to those in past years. The Euros have their hands full. Toss in the hot weather, firm turf and there are more questions for them.
Off my eye, Cyber Ninja and Redistricting will be major players in this division but I am uncertain it will be today. They may light up the exotics although the Brown horse will take more $$ than the Mott horse. It is New York after all, and Chad rules the turf.
Picks:
8. Kalik (5-1)
4. Webslinger (9-2)
3. Cyber Ninja (30-1)
10. Redistricting (8-1)
The Bet:
Based on $100 wagered
$25 Exacta box 4,8 = $50 (Kalik/Webslinger)
$20 Exacta 8/4 =$20(Kalik/Webslinger)
$5 Exacta key 4,8/3,4,8 10 = $30 (Webslinger/Kalik with Cyber Ninja/Webslinger/Kalik/Redistricting)
This way of betting weights my best opinion with the most $$
50% of my bet is on the 8-4 exacta.
30% of my bet is on 4-8 exacta
20% of my bet is on 4 or 8 winning with my prices running second (3,10)
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