Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Stephen Foster Handicap (G1)

 Who will Roll in the Stephen Foster Handicap?

By: The Turk

 

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog.  For those of you who have never read my blog, I'm The Turk and I've been handicapping and sharing my thoughts with this blog since 2008 and I've been playing the horses since 1986.  I'd like to thank The Thorofan for putting up with my ramblings hosting my thoughts today.  

I must admit something:  In all that time of handicapping and horse race watching, I've never played Ellis Park.  I knew it was in Kentucky, knew it was old, had no bias against it, but never played it.  A few years ago I shifted my focus to older horses running routes of grass, and Ellis just isn't in my orbit.  I also knew Churchill Downs bought the facility, so hopefully this stately old track that was modeled after Saratoga won't be sold off just for the value of the land. 

Notice the highly unusual 90 degree chute for their mile course, just like Saratoga.  The race will start and stop right in front of the grandstand.  

The weather is a wild card.  It's very hot today but tomorrow there is a chance for severe weather even hail.  Make sure you check out the Ellis Park website and stay close to what's happening, but I'm handicapping assuming fast dirt for now.  

This time of the year with older dirt horses you can get a pretty good view of current form, as all eight of the horses have 3-5 starts by now.  These horses also travel in the same circles mostly and compete in the same high profile races.  I like recency video handicapping.  I focus on the trip, the pace, and then I like to look at the horse's stretch runs when ahead, pressing or faltering. I'm no horse flesh expert, and while I like to watch the horses in the paddock, they all look on the muscle to me, so I don't glean much from that, but I think its really important to bring context to the past performance, as good as they are at condensing a lot of information in a uniform fashion.  Most people don't have the time for that.  I'm a boutique handicapper, 3-4 races per weekend, sometimes less. I focus on the quality of my review and not the quantity.  I use to do the speed handicapping thing, not good.  

Anyways, Let's get after it! 

Stephen Foster Handicap G1: EP; 1 1/8 Miles

 

Like I was saying previously, these horses travel in the same circles.  The video below gives you a very good cross section of the runners.  I will say, I think this is an impressive field for only 8 horses.  You could make a case for any of the runners in my top six.  I stopped investing time in dirt racing a few years ago as the fields shrunk and the quality of the remaining competition became so-so.  This is a nice division currently, minus a few not here of exceptional quality, and there is quality and depth in the ranks.  

Yes, this is 4 YO and UP, and by June/July I start to consider the 4 YO's more seriously.  The Uncle Mo son Speed Bias is eye catching and a great price most likely.  No matter what I bet, I'll have a W-P-S on him I reckon.

I've got a coin toss between Rattle N Roll and Smile Happy as the best horses in the gate.  Rattle N Roll has decent early speed but not enough in this field to be too close at first turn, but very good closing speed.  Three wins straight.  8 wins in 15 Fast dirt tries. 3 wins in 4 starts in 2023.  Smile Happy can run well early, can run well late.  Blazing in the Alysheba in early May. the 4 YO is 7 of 8 lifetime in the money and if it gets sloppy, should be very good.  

I threw a blanket over my next group.  The beforementioned Speed Bias should have the best price.  Cutting back 1/16 for Trainer Moquett who is looking for first stakes win in a long while.  Training very sharply.  

Western Will Power is the Brisnet Prime Power, Class Rating and Best Speed at Distance highest rated.  Trainer Cox and Prat combined at 27% in 410 starts in 2023.  Early speed, slows late and adding a 1/16 from last time out.  5 of 5 at the Distance Win-Place, 11 of 14 Win-Place over fast dirt and 13 of 16 Lifetime Win Place.  

Proxy has the inside post and should be on the rail most of the trip.  excellent late speed on display last time out at Oaklawn Handicap.  Stidham is 23% off of a layoff going back to late April.  7 of 8 lifetime in the money at the distance.  

I never know what to do with Stilleto Boy.  No doubt in my mind he will be the race leader at the first turn and most likely the second turn.  1 win in 5 starts at the distance.  3 wins in 19 fast dirt starts. 2 wins in last 10.  9, yes 9 Show Finishes in 22 starts.  I expect him to falter (famous last words).

I'm going to be playing exactas and at my own risk I am tossing Last Samurai and Happy American. I like Last Samurai but it's a loaded field. 

 Oaklawn Handicap G2:  22 April 2023;  1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt

Santa Anita Handicap G1: 4 March 2023; 1 1/4 Miles Fast Dirt.

Pimlico Special G3: 19 May 2023; 1 3/16 Miles on Fast Dirt

Blame Stakes G3:  CD 3 June 2023; 1 1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt

Alysheba G2: CD 5 May 2023; 1 1/16 Miles Fast Dirt

Ben Ali G3: KEE 22 April 2023; 1 3/16 Miles Fast Dirt

So what to do with all this?  I like to play exactas, so no reason to deviate. The best case scenario for me I don't see happening: a longer price winning over a mid pack price.  I also don't want to play it too safe.  Lets single Speed Bias to Win with Rattle N Roll to Place.  A $2 bet.  Sorry to disappoint with something better than that.  I may change my thinking based on track conditions and scratches, as I'd love to find a way to slip Last Samurai in.  

I have a correction to make to:  I bet Ellis Park once, Kentucky Downs Preview Day.  Now that Arlington Park is gone, Kentucky Downs is my favorite North American track, and that was the allure back in 2018.  The funny thing is I said in 2018 that I don't think I ever handicapped Ellis Park either!  

Have Fun Friends.

Turk Out!