Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Ohio Derby (G3)

 Henry answers the "Q"ustion in the Ohio Derby

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Handicapper

Sandwiched between two prominent 3-year-old races, the Ohio Derby tries to elevate its winner to national recognition like Caleb’s Posse did by stepping up to win the 2011 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. It may have a chance this year.

The field owns four that performed well against the top 3-year-olds. Two Phils, the Ohio Derby morning line favorite, finished second in the Kentucky Derby. Bishops Bay finished 2^nd behind Arcangelo in the Peter Pan Stakes. Henry Q finished third in the Peter Pan Stakes. Lord Miles won the Wood Memorial Stakes (GII) in a Roller Derby-like finish at 50.25-1 over Hit Show.

Which of these will improve enough to have their picture taken is the handicapping challenge. Although a 23% chance of rain is predicted, the track should be good for the race at 6:20 Eastern time. Here is the field:

 1.   Henry Q (Blame) came out of a tough race against the Belmont Stakes (GII) winner Arcangelo. He picks up the seasoned jockey Kendrick Carmouche after a nice try with Dettori up in the Peter Pan Stakes (GIII). Looks like he wants the lead from the rail. With the right pace, he could be there at the wire. (Contender).

2.   Timesatappin (Tapiture) tries graded stakes racing for the first time with only one win in a maiden event. Doesn’t seem to be moving in the right direction for this crowd. Next time. (Pass).

3.   Bishop Bay (Uncle Mo) is a $450K Keeneland Sales grad with three impressive starts, keeps Geroux, tries G3 racing again. Just missed by a head, losing a bob in the Belmont Stakes (GI). May have graded stakes “seconditis.” Hasn’t performed the way the odds predicted. (Why?).

4.   Two Phils (Hard Spun) after winning the Jack Ruby Stakes finished second in the Derby behind Mage. Coming out of six graded stakes races with only two wins brings up questions about the horse or jockey. Bullet works seem to be the trainer’s solution. (questionable).

5.   Agnello’s Dream (Always Dreaming) another with Ohio racing experience. He has six starts in 2023 and no wins. Might be after a small piece of the purse. (Tough ask).

6.   Last Cookie (Fast Cookie) has no wins in 2023 or graded experience. Has a high winning trainer percentage, not much more (maybe an exotic play).

7.   Lord Miles (Lord Esme) homebred trained by Saffie Joseph, Jr.. Lord Miles shocked racing with a gutsy head win over Hit Show in the Wood Memorial (GII). Looks to show his odds were wrong in the last. Most rested of them all. (Contender).

8.   Hayes Strike (Connect) solid grade two and three experience as a 2-year-old and a troubled try in the Blue Grass Stakes (GI) this year. Pick up a new jockey for trainer Ken McPeek. Solid closer if the pace is rapid; otherwise, deep exotic play.

 

Analysis

Although Two Phills looks like he wants to set the pace, Henry Q with Carmouche up from the rail will likely challenge that and get it. Pace will determine the race –Carmouche against Loveberry.

Four, including Two Phils, will track anticipating Henry Q’s tiring. Three will be farther back. Henry Q will want to show he is in the class as the Belmont Stakes (GI) winner and will give all. Here is how they should finish:

1. Henry Q (5-1)

7. Lord Miles (7-2)

4.  Two Phils (8-5)

6. Last Cookie (30-1)

Handigamble ($100)

$20 to Win and Place on Henry Q =$40

$10 Exacta Box Henry Q with Lord Miles and with Two Phils =$60