Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Regret Stakes (G3)

 Sophomore Fillies take to the lawn in Regret Stakes

By: Rowan Ward, Blinkers-Off

The sophomore turf divisions begin to take shape in the spring: a combination of better turf racing weather and time to get horses off the Oaks trail and onto the grass they may prefer makes this the right time for the division to coalesce.

The Regret (G3) at Churchill Downs is the third major two-turn race of the sophomore fillies’ grass season, after the Appalachian (G2) at Keeneland and the Edgewood (G2) on the Kentucky Oaks undercard.

Though the race is on the lawn, it takes its name from one of the best-remembered dirt horses of all time: Regret, who in 1915 became the first filly to win the Kentucky Derby.

The race has gone through several different incarnations. Originated in 1970 as a six-furlong dirt sprint, the Regret was stretched to a mile on the main track in 1982 and continued as a dirt mile through 1986. It was moved to grass in 1987, stretched to 1 1/16 miles in 1988, and has covered its current 1 1/8-mile distance since 2003.

The most accomplished horse to win the Regret in its turf era so far is Pure Clan, who win in 2008. She came into the Regret off a third-place finish in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) and went on to win both the American Oaks (G1) and the Flower Bowl (G1). She finished her career running second to Midday in the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G1). Other major winners of this race include Keertana (2009) and Centre Court (2012). 

The Regret drew a field of just six this year. Horses with tactical speed are at an advantage in such a small field, making 3. Mission of Joy tough. Though she may be outjumped early by 1. Miss Riddler, Mission of Joy showed in her three-back allowance win that she can be effective from near the pace if things go slow; that day, she attended a sluggish pace and opened up in the lane. If she gets closer to the pace than she did in her troubled Edgewood third last out, she should prove tough to beat in this spot.

The best chance for Mission of Joy to be beaten would be if aggressive rider Louis Saez can get Miss Riddler to go coast to coast. She should be the pacesetter from the rail draw. She also showed both in her dirt debut and her allowance win on grass that she has the ability to keep on running even when she has to deal with a fight on the front end. The stretch from a mile to nine furlongs is a bit of a question, though being out of a Royal Academy mare she has a chance to stay the trip in the Regret.

4. Mrs. Astor is a closer, though she has run good races (including a maiden-breaker) when the pace has unfolded on the slower side. She is also the only horse in the field who has tried a mile and an eighth before. She did so in a first-level allowance at Keeneland, in which she gained late and finished second beaten only half a length. This is a deeper field, but her pace versatility and that experience over the longer trip could help her.

 

Selections:

3. Mission of Joy (9-5)

1. Miss Riddler (6-1)

4. Mrs. Astor (4-1)

Longshot:  6. Sabalenka (12-1) has tables to turn on several of the leading contenders, as she ran only eighth in the Edgewood last out. She also finished off the board in the Appalachian two back. However, she came from way off the pace in both of those races. What makes her interesting is her three-back outing last November in second-level allowance company. That day, she led at every call. If Ricardo Santana can coax that version of Sabalenka back out, especially from this clean outside gate in a short field, she can outrun her odds.