Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Triple Bend Stakes (G2)

 Triple Bend Stakes a Spirited Affair

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

 

The $200,000 Grade 2 Triple Bend Stakes for four-year-olds and older is held at seven furlongs over Santa Anitia’s main track.

The race hasn’t yielded a Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner but produced a Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile hero, City of Light (2018).

This year, seven older horses and geldings line up.

 

Spirit of Makena (8-5) is a head shy of a perfect four-for-four record. The loss came in his second start when Ghostzapper’s son stretched to a mile. In his last start, the seven-furlong San Carlos Stakes (G3), the George Papaprodromou trainee defeated Forbidden Kingdom by 1 ½ lengths. Spirit of Makena has a pace pressing/setting style and is the only one in the field who captured his last start. Win Contender.

Spirit of Makena’s toughest competitor is C Z Rocket (3-1), who is making his second start since an eighth-place finish in the Dubai Golden Shaheen (Gr.1) in March. Last year, C Z Rocket was second in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1), so he has the class to win the Triple Bend. However, the Peter Miller trainee hasn’t visited the winner’s circle since last July. Extra distance will suit since C Z Rocket has hit the board in five of eight starts at seven furlongs. Win Contender.

Forbidden Kingdom (5-2) is trying to find his sweet spot. He looked like a good thing leading up to last year’s Santa Anita Derby, earning victories in the San Vicente and San Felipe Stakes but 1 1/8 miles proved to be too far. In his first start of the season, the Richard Mandella trainee was second to Spirit of Makena in the San Carlos, and Mandela has a 24% win rate with the second off a layoff angle. The pacesetting Forbidden Kingdom needs to shake off the seconditis and regain his early confidence to win the Triple Bend. Exotics Contender.

Positivity (15-1) was a distant third in the Kona Gold Stakes (G3) in April, which was his first start back in the US after a trio of starts in Dubai. The Doug O'Neill trainee doesn’t own the class of the top three, but he’s hit the board in nine of 17 starts, and at seven furlongs, in the money five of six starts. The pace presser always runs his race and could hit the board as a Longshot Contender.

Howbeit (5-1) is on a five-race streak of consecutive fourth place finishes, and the sprinter is zero for three at seven furlongs. The six-year-old was claimed, gelded, and makes his first start for George Papaprodromou, who wins at 17% off the claim. Maybe the ultimate equipment change will help, but I’m not betting on it. Pass.

Midnight Mammoth (6-1) seeks his first victory outside the claiming ranks, and cuts back in distance after a third-place finish in the 1 1/8 mile Californian Stakes (G2), where he faded to third after setting the pace. The Craig Dollase trainee must contend with speed to his outside but might hold on for a lower prize, but I’m looking elsewhere. Pass.

Desmond Doss (12-1) takes a shot at the graded level after a diet of optional claiming and state-bred contests, where he’s been hit or miss…mostly miss. He’s shown improvement with the turf to dirt angle but looks up against it here. Pass.

 

Analysis

Midnight Mammoth and Forbidden Kingdom might get involved in a speed duel, with Spirit of Makena and C Z Rocket in hot pursuit. Positivity could also be in the mix.

Seven furlongs is an iffy distance. Too long for true sprinters, too short for true milers, so I go with the horses who are proven at the distance.  Spirit of Makena won at seven furlongs in his last start, and it’s hard to bet against a horse that likes to win.

C Z Rocket likes the distance, and the nine-year-old bay gelding is the class of the race.

6. Spirit of Makena (8-5)

7. C Z Rocket (3-1)

4. Forbidden Kingdom (5-2)

3. Positivity (15-1)