Turf horses making a point in the Man O'War Stakes
By: Stuart Marc deVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper
This week’s event showcases the grassy marathon division and $600k is up for grabs as well as Grade 1 glory. There are a few common themes coming together for the Man o’ War Stakes.
Charlie Appleby brings over a formidable Godolphin runner. His name is Warren Point. Appleby has been lethal in G1 turf races in the US over the last few seasons – Modern Games, Rebel’s Romance, and Space Blues to name a few.
Mike Maker, who must be harboring the Fountain of Youth in his barn, has 2 entered. 9yo Red Knight will make his 34th start and 7yo Value Engineering will make only his 20th.
Since we are speaking of the “Senior Citizens” of the race, Channel Maker can’t be left out – he’s nine as well. After all, he won this race FOUR years ago as a 5yo. Bill Mott, his trainer, must be stabled close to Maker…
The Field:
1. Red Knight (I. Ortiz Jr./Maker) 7/2 – A deep closing sort who always shows up. Fast paces help his late kick, but he doesn’t need it. He will be running at the end.
2. Warren Point (L. Dettori/Appleby) 9/5 – This 4yo wintered in the Middle East where had 2 starts. In his last, a Group 1, he made a nice run to just miss by a half length after finding traffic entering the stretch. He looks like a galloper to me that has a nice turn of foot. He will love Belmont’s sweeping turns and Frankie can place him anywhere.
3. Channel Maker (J. Rosario/Mott) 6/1 – The venerable 9yo gelding making his 52nd lifetime start still has speed. In fact, he may be THE speed. His last 2 starts are better than they look on paper. He was caught up in fast paces both times but held well. He may get a chance to “walk the dog” here. If so, he will be heard from late. Catch him to win.
4. Verstappen (D. Cannon/Walsh) 6-1 – One of the “youngsters” of the group, this 4yo is coming off a G2 win at Keeneland going a tick further than today’s assignment. Four of his rivals today finished behind him in that event. He used the fast pace that day which he won’t get here. However, Verstappen took the worst of the ground loss in the Elkhorn and can lay closer if needed. He looks to be an improving sort.
5. Howe Street (F. Prat/Abreu) 8-1 – Jorge Abreu must see something in this colt. After breaking his maiden and winning his A Other Than, he put him right into a G2 (Elkhorn) which was won by Verstappen. He went favored that day against four of today’s rivals. He was on the chase of a fast pace there, never looked settled and weakened late. This is only his 5th start so there is still room for improvement. He may be a bit overlooked today but he is not without a chance.
6. Soldier Rising (J. Ortiz/Clement) 5-1 – This one looks like things would have to go his way for him to win. He looks very pace dependent to me. If he gets a solid pace, he is a player. But I don’t think that’s today.
7. Strong Tide (F. Geroux/Lauer) 20-1 – Looks like he is the only other speed today (Channel Maker). He will lay close to the pace but I don’t think he classes up with these.
8. Value Engineering (M. Franco/Maker) 12-1 – He had a great winter in Florida racking up 2 wins and a second in three starts. He just plain didn’t show up in the aforementioned Elkhorn. I felt he benefitted from some very favorable trips in The Sunshine State and made the most of it. He may find himself with another perfect trip. I just don’t think he’s that good.
Summary:
Sometimes it’s better to identify the ones you think CAN’T win before seeing who can win. On their best day any one of Red Knight, Channel Maker or Value Engineering can win this race. Of the three, I feel Channel Maker has the best chance because of the pace scenario. Both Red Knight and Value Engineering may have run their best already in this form cycle. I don’t think Soldier Rising or Strong Tide fit here. The former on race shape and the latter on class.
That leaves me with Warren Point, Verstappen and Howe Street. Of these three, Warren Point is the most formidable with both connections and resume. I realize I haven’t solved any mysteries with that statement, and he will most likely be even money when the gates open. In Charlie I Trust! The latter two have run as fast as the others and still have some upside.
The Bet:
In the age of computer bettors, it has become increasingly important to be laser focused with your bets and back your opinion. The less losing combinations wagered the better your equity long term will be. You have to “make it count” when you are right.
Based on $100 wagered
$35 Exacta 2/45 = $70
$5 Trifecta 2/45/45 = $10
$5 Trifecta 2/45/345 = $20
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