Spring is clearly in the air.
Flowers are blooming and birds are
singing.
But, more importantly, the
Triple Crown series has begun and turf racing is hitting its stride in New York.
A wonderful time to be alive!
This week’s event showcases the grassy marathon division and
$600k is up for grabs as well as Grade 1 glory.
There are a few common themes coming together for the Man o’ War
Stakes.
Charlie Appleby brings over a formidable Godolphin runner. His
name is Warren Point. Appleby has been
lethal in G1 turf races in the US over the last few seasons – Modern Games, Rebel’s
Romance, and Space Blues to name a few.
Mike Maker, who must be harboring the Fountain of Youth in
his barn, has 2 entered. 9yo Red Knight
will make his 34th start and 7yo Value Engineering will make only
his 20th.
Since we are speaking of the “Senior Citizens” of the race,
Channel Maker can’t be left out – he’s nine as well. After all, he won this race FOUR years ago
as a 5yo. Bill Mott, his trainer, must
be stabled close to Maker…
The Field:
1.
Red
Knight (I. Ortiz Jr./Maker) 7/2 – A deep closing sort who always shows
up. Fast paces help his late kick, but
he doesn’t need it. He will be running
at the end.
2.
Warren Point (L. Dettori/Appleby) 9/5 –
This 4yo wintered in the Middle East where had 2 starts. In his last, a Group 1, he made a nice run to
just miss by a half length after finding traffic entering the stretch. He looks like a galloper to me that has a
nice turn of foot. He will love
Belmont’s sweeping turns and Frankie can place him anywhere.
3.
Channel Maker (J. Rosario/Mott) 6/1 – The
venerable 9yo gelding making his 52nd lifetime start still has speed. In fact, he may be THE speed. His last 2 starts are better than they look
on paper. He was caught up in fast paces
both times but held well. He may get a
chance to “walk the dog” here. If so, he
will be heard from late. Catch him to
win.
4.
Verstappen (D. Cannon/Walsh) 6-1 – One of
the “youngsters” of the group, this 4yo is coming off a G2 win at Keeneland
going a tick further than today’s assignment.
Four of his rivals today finished behind him in that event. He used the fast pace that day which he won’t
get here. However, Verstappen took the
worst of the ground loss in the Elkhorn and can lay closer if needed. He looks to be an improving sort.
5.
Howe Street (F. Prat/Abreu) 8-1 – Jorge
Abreu must see something in this colt.
After breaking his maiden and winning his A Other Than, he put him right
into a G2 (Elkhorn) which was won by Verstappen. He went favored that day against four of
today’s rivals. He was on the chase of a
fast pace there, never looked settled and weakened late. This is only his 5th start so
there is still room for improvement. He
may be a bit overlooked today but he is not without a chance.
6.
Soldier Rising (J. Ortiz/Clement) 5-1 – This
one looks like things would have to go his way for him to win. He looks very pace dependent to me. If he gets a solid pace, he is a player. But I don’t think that’s today.
7.
Strong Tide (F. Geroux/Lauer) 20-1
– Looks like he is the only other speed today (Channel Maker). He will lay close to the pace but I don’t
think he classes up with these.
8.
Value Engineering (M. Franco/Maker)
12-1 – He had a great winter in Florida racking up 2 wins and a second in
three starts. He just plain didn’t show
up in the aforementioned Elkhorn. I felt
he benefitted from some very favorable trips in The Sunshine State and made the
most of it. He may find himself with
another perfect trip. I just don’t think
he’s that good.
Summary:
Sometimes it’s better to identify the ones you think CAN’T
win before seeing who can win. On their
best day any one of Red Knight, Channel Maker or Value Engineering
can win this race. Of the three, I feel
Channel Maker has the best chance because of the pace scenario. Both Red Knight and Value Engineering may
have run their best already in this form cycle.
I don’t think Soldier Rising or Strong Tide fit here. The former on race shape and the latter on
class.
That leaves me with Warren Point, Verstappen
and Howe Street. Of these three, Warren
Point is the most formidable with both connections and resume. I realize I haven’t solved any mysteries with
that statement, and he will most likely be even money when the gates open. In Charlie I Trust! The latter two have run as fast as the others
and still have some upside.
The Bet:
In the age of computer bettors, it has become increasingly
important to be laser focused with your bets and back your opinion. The less losing combinations wagered the
better your equity long term will be. You
have to “make it count” when you are right.
Based on $100 wagered
$35 Exacta 2/45 = $70
$5 Trifecta 2/45/45 = $10
$5 Trifecta 2/45/345 = $20
